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 The case for giving this team another chance

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TheMagnus
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PostSubject: The case for giving this team another chance   Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:14 pm

I was going to post this under the ongoing off-season roster improvements thread but I decided that I would rather selfishly focus the attention on myself with a new thread.

I was thinking about what the best plan is for the Jazz this year, all the scenarios trading Jefferson and/or Millsap and/or Harris, and I started looking at what the Jazz have to work with, and then I started thinking....you know, an addition or two and this team could be good. And I'm not talking mediocre good, really good.

So, I thought, what if we just added a couple guys, and ran with what we have?

I know, I know, good but not great, right?

Well check this out...

The Jazz have 10 guys currently on contract for next year, but Raja has said that he will probably retire before he plays for the Jazz again and Tinsley is non-guranteed, so let's say we have 8 guys on contract:

Paul Millsap
Al Jefferson
Earl Watson
Devin Harris
Gordon Hayward
Derrick Favors
Enes Kanter
Alec Burks

The Jazz also have rights to Evans and Carrol and will have a second round pick, so lets say they keep those two guys for the minimum and amnesty Bell.

I know stats bore a lot of you guys, but bear with me here, and I'll try to make this as painless as possible.

WinScore is a metric that basically tries to measure how many wins a player contributes to a teams total wins. On thing that it is known for is being remarkably consistent form year to year for a given player, especially when that player plays for the same team.

So check this out, the projected number of wins for the Jazz using the statistical methods was 34-35, they ended up winning 36, but that statistical projection is pretty close. I predicted 34-36 wins prior to this last season, I did that using WinScore projections for the players we had. So here's the win scores for the 10 guys I mentioned above from last season.

Player Min WS/48WS
Paul Millsap 2075 .179 7.8
Al Jefferson 2100 .173 7.5
Gordon Hayward 2015 .116 4.9
Devin Harris 1741 .115 4.2
Derrick Favors 1376 .105 3.0
Enes Kanter 874 .095 1.7
Alec Burks 939 .076 1.5
Earl Watson 1033 .018 .4
Jeremy Evans 217 .193 .9
DeMarre Carroll 327 .06 .4
Total12697 - 32.3

Here's the key takeaways from that table, first of all let me say, as much as we all love Watson, he's pretty much useless.

But that's not really one of the points I was talking about, those are that 1) these 10 players accounted for 95% of the Jazz winning last season, 2) those 10 guys only played 80% of the minutes. In other words, if they just had those 10 guys last season and played them more minutes, playing at the levels they played at, they almost certainly would have won MORE games that they did.

So I'm thinking, what if we added some more quality talent?

Two part plan. Part 1, get a quality PG. Part 2, get AK.

Part 1. This is where I put the TPE to use. The first option here is Goran Dragic. I'd make him a big offer, like 4 years/35 million big, and give Houston a second round pick for making it happen. If that didn't work out then I'd go for Nash, I'd offer him the 2 year/20 Mil deal that Phoenix offered him telling him that if he comes we'll add one more piece and give him one last chance to make a run at the finals with a team of young players eager to play and learn from him.

Part 2. After I land the PG I fly to Russia and I hard sell AK on coming back to Utah for the MLE telling him that Utah loves him, his Jersey will be in the rafters some day, and the team is good enough to make a deep playoff run in the west if he comes back. I'd offer him 3 years/17 Mil with a player option on the third so he could opt out if he didn't like the situation.

So what does that do for us? Table's worth a dozen words, I projected the minutes based on what players average in an 82 game season and the WinScores are based on current and past performance and the fact that the young guys will almost certainly improve...

Player Min WS/48WS
Goran Dragic 2400 .140 7.0
Andrei Kirilenko 2000 .120 5.0
Paul Millsap 2500 .170 8.8
Al Jefferson 2500 .170 8.8
Gordon Hayward 2500 .130 6.8
Devin Harris 2000 .100 4.1
Derrick Favors 2400 .140 7.0
Enes Kanter 1100 .100 2.3
Alec Burks 1200 .100 2.5
Earl Watson 200 .020 0.1
Jeremy Evans 400 .160 1.7
DeMarre Carroll 380 .070 .6
Total19680 - 54.7

...let it sink in for a second...no kidding, that table says that on paper that is a 55 win team. And I actually think my estimates, especially for the young guys, were conservative. Favors could easily turn into a .17 or better player and if Burks makes the kind of jump that Hayward did from his rookie season he could be a .12 level player or better. On top of that it is 2 quality players deep at every position, so it won't be a huge problem if AK misses 20 games or they get Nash instead of Dragic and have to meter his minutes.

That is absolutely not what I expected. I expected a clone of the Denver Nuggets, but what this team looks like on paper is closer to the San Antonio Spurs.

Just to put it in a little more perspective, during the Williams/Boozer era the most games the Jazz ever won was 54, and 9 of the past 10 years 55 wins would be good enough for a top 3 seed in the western conference.

So that's my case, the Jazz are 1-2 quality veterans away form being borderline title contenders, I'd I'd love to see them go for it.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:39 am

I like your thinking Magnus as I am not a blow up the team/make fancy trades to stand still type. Milly and Al will be in contract years and I would expect them therefore to come into the new season in the best shape of their lives and play with an extra motivational edge. It is also highly likely that Hayward, Kanter, Evans, Carroll and Burks will have improved their game in the off-season. That alone could make the team a mid-seed coming out of the West. The tricky part would be bringing in a new PG, be that Nash or Dragic and splitting minutes with Harris. Pretty sure that Harris would not take a backup role well nor would it be likely successful to try and split minutes at the point and I really don't see him being very effective in a small SG role as that has to be someone who can hit an outside shot with regularity. That leads me to wonder if a good call might be to shop Harris and assets, (GS pick for instance), for a quality veteran shooter, most likely in a multi-team trade.

If its me, I keep Tinsley for the backup, let Watson go and go fishing in the second round or undrafted pool for a third option PG. As for AK, well, I really doubt, despite his statement that he "has enough money", that he would sign for the MLE. Fantastic if he did but....if he didin't, I say start the season with the roster above. If it becomes clear that Corbin can't figure out how to share minutes between Favors/Al/Sap I would look to move Sap for a SF who can hit an outside shot. Love Sap but I think an Al/Favors front is superior not to mention Al's offense will continue to be needed.
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PostSubject: Agree and disagree   Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:33 am

MTJazz wrote:
I like your thinking Magnus as I am not a blow up the team/make fancy trades to stand still type. Milly and Al will be in contract years and I would expect them therefore to come into the new season in the best shape of their lives and play with an extra motivational edge. It is also highly likely that Hayward, Kanter, Evans, Carroll and Burks will have improved their game in the off-season. That alone could make the team a mid-seed coming out of the West. The tricky part would be bringing in a new PG, be that Nash or Dragic and splitting minutes with Harris. Pretty sure that Harris would not take a backup role well nor would it be likely successful to try and split minutes at the point and I really don't see him being very effective in a small SG role as that has to be someone who can hit an outside shot with regularity. That leads me to wonder if a good call might be to shop Harris and assets, (GS pick for instance), for a quality veteran shooter, most likely in a multi-team trade.

If its me, I keep Tinsley for the backup, let Watson go and go fishing in the second round or undrafted pool for a third option PG. As for AK, well, I really doubt, despite his statement that he "has enough money", that he would sign for the MLE. Fantastic if he did but....if he didin't, I say start the season with the roster above. If it becomes clear that Corbin can't figure out how to share minutes between Favors/Al/Sap I would look to move Sap for a SF who can hit an outside shot. Love Sap but I think an Al/Favors front is superior not to mention Al's offense will continue to be needed.

I agree with almost everything you said. I also think Mag's post was very informative. The one thing I disagree with is an Al/Favors front being a superior. I would say Al's low post game is better than Milsap's. Milsap's ability to run the floor and finish however is far superior. For Favors to improve he is going to need low post opportunities, and guys around him willing to pass the ball. I'm not saying Milsap is necesarily the better passer, but he is certainly the more willing passer. Plus, I really don't see Al willing to religuish the low post to Favors nearly as often.

Defensively, you're trading blocks for steals. Al blocks more shots, Milsap steals more. Milsap is the quicker of the two on defense, but he is undersized at PF. Personally, I think its close, but I think Milsap/Favors is slightly better now, and certainly allows, for more opportunites for Favors to develop in the future.

I think the Jazz will be patient making any changes. All these guys are young and improving. I also think the Jazz want to see what happens with a full training camp. Last year was a tough year to gauge from. If the past has shown us anything its, the Jazz are willing to give players time to develop. Granted some folks think too much time in cases like CJ Miles, Boozer etc. is given.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:02 am

What I was getting at is IF Corbin can't find enough minutes for Sap/Al/Favors and one has to go it should be Millsap. I'd rather see some unique minutes sharing where that 3-headed post monster, plus injections of Kanter, continually reaps havoc with both post scoring and defense. While I agree its almost a toss-up between Al and Sap, Al is the only one of the three who has a deadly post offense, a go-to scorer who carried the team many games last season. I think the Jazz like the current situation of riches in the paint and will open the season with the all four currently contracted bigs.

I still maintain that the only real roster tweak the Jazz need to be seriously competitive is an outside shooter. They would then have a formidable inside-out package. That outside shooting improvement doesn't have to be an all-star type impact player, simply a better than average one in combination with improvements from Burks and Gordo, so opposing teams can't simply lock-down a single guy and happily dare anyone else to shoot over the top of them. While looking 2-3 years down the road it is clear the Jazz need a succession plan for PG, I'm not convinced that PG is really a spot the Jazz need a big upgrade right now unless that guy is also one who can hit the outside shot, not Harris's forte. Nash would be amazing simply to see how far the Jazz could then go over the next two years but that doesn't make a ton of sense unless a move was also made to be simultaneously grooming the PG of the future.
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PostSubject: Nash   Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:41 am

MTJazz wrote:
What I was getting at is IF Corbin can't find enough minutes for Sap/Al/Favors and one has to go it should be Millsap. I'd rather see some unique minutes sharing where that 3-headed post monster, plus injections of Kanter, continually reaps havoc with both post scoring and defense. While I agree its almost a toss-up between Al and Sap, Al is the only one of the three who has a deadly post offense, a go-to scorer who carried the team many games last season. I think the Jazz like the current situation of riches in the paint and will open the season with the all four currently contracted bigs.

I still maintain that the only real roster tweak the Jazz need to be seriously competitive is an outside shooter. They would then have a formidable inside-out package. That outside shooting improvement doesn't have to be an all-star type impact player, simply a better than average one in combination with improvements from Burks and Gordo, so opposing teams can't simply lock-down a single guy and happily dare anyone else to shoot over the top of them. While looking 2-3 years down the road it is clear the Jazz need a succession plan for PG, I'm not convinced that PG is really a spot the Jazz need a big upgrade right now unless that guy is also one who can hit the outside shot, not Harris's forte. Nash would be amazing simply to see how far the Jazz could then go over the next two years but that doesn't make a ton of sense unless a move was also made to be simultaneously grooming the PG of the future.

I agree with you completely here. While I would love to get Nash, I too think it only makes sense if we do one of two things:

First, we bring in the pieces to challenge for a Chamionship within the next two years, which means possibly signing a versatialle player like AK, and finding an legitimate, consistant outside shooter who also plays good defense.

Second, we find the PG of the future, then, sign Nash to possibly get us a Championship, if our young guns improve rapidly enough, while tutoring his replacement.

Of course, the dream scenario would be to get our cake and eat it too by having both options come true. I think this is too much to realistically ask for, though hoping the stars will align just right for everything to fall into place is not out of the question.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:37 pm

Solid points all around.

Two things I'd add/argue...

First, I'm on record as saying a Millsap/Favors combo is better than a Favors Jefferson combo. I don't even really think it is that close. The defensive upgrade you get from removing Jefferson from the lineup is much larger than the offensive downgrade. On top of that this past season if you look at +/- per minute, the Millsap/Favors PF/C combination was over twice as effective as the Favors/Jefferson PF/C combination. Also, that whole "undersized power forward" bit is just nonsense, it's a myth, and I don't understand why people keep bringing it up.


Second, Harris has actually improved his shooting a lot. In the playoffs he was the Jazz best (only) 3pt shooter and during the season he was by far the best shooter on the team, making almost twice as many 3's (77) as everybody but Hayward (55) while shooting 36%. He also shot 36% with the Jazz last year. Now that's not lights out by any means, but it easily puts him in the "threat" category. I actually really like the idea of bringing in another good PG and keeping Harris because I think he would be a massive upgrade over Watson and Tinsley and he could play solid minutes at SG. If the Jazz don't pick up a guy like AK to play starter minutes on the wing then Burks will probably get the start, and having Harris to fill minutes at SG and backup PG would be huge. That's why I think bringing in a starting quality PG should priority one. There are several available, I think the Jazz need to do like they did with Okur and Boozer, just go and get em.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Thu Jun 21, 2012 4:39 pm

Still struggling with the idea of Harris in a backup role for the money he will make, especially at the 2 where I think he isn't rangy enough defensively not to mention whether on 3's or in general he is an average shooter at best. I'm just not convinced that a slightly better PG would make much of a difference unless it was one with some already good chops and serious upside.

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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Thu Jun 21, 2012 4:59 pm

MTJazz wrote:
Still struggling with the idea of Harris in a backup role for the money he will make, especially at the 2 where I think he isn't rangy enough defensively not to mention whether on 3's or in general he is an average shooter at best. I'm just not convinced that a slightly better PG would make much of a difference unless it was one with some already good chops and serious upside.


What is "rangy"? Harris is quick as a cat, so that can't be it. The average NBA SG has a 6'8" wingspan and a 8'4" standing reach, Harris has a 6'7.5" wingspan and a 8'2.5" standing reach...is that what you are talking about? Seems like a tough assessment.

A slightly better replacement for Harris wouldn't make much difference at all. But ANOTHER slightly better PG with Harris would make a HUGE difference. As I stated in my first post and the tables I put together, we got exactly nothing out of Watson and Tinsley. If we move forward with Watson as backup then we are basically throwing away 15-20 minutes a game at PG. PG and SG were by far and away our two weakest spots last year, and will be again if we run with scrubs backing up Burks and Harris.

The salary shouldn't really matter, especially since the Jazz aren't in any danger of paying taxes.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Thu Jun 21, 2012 7:38 pm

Great discussion guys.

It sounds like we would all be in agreement if we could sign Nash and AK.

I also would look at a Jefferson or Milsap for Gay pick up. We might need to throw in a pick as well. Here in the south Atlanta is fed up with Smith's attitude. If they can rid themself of Smith they will. I would throw in the trade exception and junk and see if they bite.

If either trade doesn't happen I like our chances with AK and Nash upgrade.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Thu Jun 21, 2012 8:47 pm

Jazz Dog wrote:
Great discussion guys.

It sounds like we would all be in agreement if we could sign Nash and AK.

I also would look at a Jefferson or Milsap for Gay pick up. We might need to throw in a pick as well. Here in the south Atlanta is fed up with Smith's attitude. If they can rid themself of Smith they will. I would throw in the trade exception and junk and see if they bite.

If either trade doesn't happen I like our chances with AK and Nash upgrade.

Nice post up there Magnus.

I gotta say, I for one am AGAINST signing Nash. The only scenario, and I mean ONLY scenario is if we somehow end up with Lilliard or even Marshall, and Nash is ok with also being a big time mentor. Other than that, a couple things. One, I dont think Nash will believe at all that Utah with him is a championship contender; unless they also go out and sign a superstar. He's not going to believe that our group of great guys who play really hard, is going to be enough. There are a handful of other teams that will want him as their little missing piece.
Heres the other thing; Nash missed games in the lockout shortened season. Next year he's what, 38 going on 39??? And in an 82 game season he's now going to miss even more games!! The guy is old. Doesn't shoot as well as he used to, can't play as well as he used to. I believe without looking that he shot all career lows. And at his age, thats not coming back. And we're going throw 10m for the next two years at him??? Ugh, NO THANK YOU--- I think he'd be the biggest disappointment of 2012-13.

With you JD on Josh Smith. Not sure about attitude probs, but he came to play every night. I want him on this team, BAAAAAAD!! Gay at SF would be nice too. If we move a big, and sign either of them at SF, we go from 7,8 seed to 5,6 at minimum.

With Mags post above, I thought initially it was going to be the Jazz coming back with exactly the same team. I'd look at the signing of Dragic, and very quick, very good finisher, very good passer, very good 3pt shooter, very good defender as a MASSIVE acquisition. And that would make this team not even the same team. Having Harris there(which I dont think would happen if Dragic comes) as a 1 or 2 back up would be pretty sweet. He's always been a scorer anyway. Though I think that also would be duplicating what we'd like to have in Burks. So I think Harris would be gone. Would be interesting though if GH was the 3, Burks started at two, and then Harris could come in as the 1 or 2.....interesting idea.

Lastly, I think AK WOULD be interested in Koc et al offering him a fair contract, a starting position and the idea of hanging his rafter up in Energy Solutions. I think AK'd love it. I would too actually. I look at AK as a bit of a step down from Josh Smith, but step up in passing. I think it'd be great.

Signing Dragic and AK, with the rest returning, I think 50 wins is very likely. Maybe better.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Thu Jun 21, 2012 9:46 pm

Payroll for this would be about what $64-65 mill?
I like the idea Big Al, Millsap, and Harris would be gone this time next year if not resigned, and that might be a good thing or not for all or any. Plus there is always an option if KOC gets an offer he can't refuse on any of them by trade deadline next year.
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PostSubject: Summary of thoughts   Fri Jun 22, 2012 2:33 pm

Mutangclan wrote:
Jazz Dog wrote:
Great discussion guys.

It sounds like we would all be in agreement if we could sign Nash and AK.

I also would look at a Jefferson or Milsap for Gay pick up. We might need to throw in a pick as well. Here in the south Atlanta is fed up with Smith's attitude. If they can rid themself of Smith they will. I would throw in the trade exception and junk and see if they bite.

If either trade doesn't happen I like our chances with AK and Nash upgrade.

Nice post up there Magnus.

I gotta say, I for one am AGAINST signing Nash. The only scenario, and I mean ONLY scenario is if we somehow end up with Lilliard or even Marshall, and Nash is ok with also being a big time mentor. Other than that, a couple things. One, I dont think Nash will believe at all that Utah with him is a championship contender; unless they also go out and sign a superstar. He's not going to believe that our group of great guys who play really hard, is going to be enough. There are a handful of other teams that will want him as their little missing piece.
Heres the other thing; Nash missed games in the lockout shortened season. Next year he's what, 38 going on 39??? And in an 82 game season he's now going to miss even more games!! The guy is old. Doesn't shoot as well as he used to, can't play as well as he used to. I believe without looking that he shot all career lows. And at his age, thats not coming back. And we're going throw 10m for the next two years at him??? Ugh, NO THANK YOU--- I think he'd be the biggest disappointment of 2012-13.

With you JD on Josh Smith. Not sure about attitude probs, but he came to play every night. I want him on this team, BAAAAAAD!! Gay at SF would be nice too. If we move a big, and sign either of them at SF, we go from 7,8 seed to 5,6 at minimum.

With Mags post above, I thought initially it was going to be the Jazz coming back with exactly the same team. I'd look at the signing of Dragic, and very quick, very good finisher, very good passer, very good 3pt shooter, very good defender as a MASSIVE acquisition. And that would make this team not even the same team. Having Harris there(which I dont think would happen if Dragic comes) as a 1 or 2 back up would be pretty sweet. He's always been a scorer anyway. Though I think that also would be duplicating what we'd like to have in Burks. So I think Harris would be gone. Would be interesting though if GH was the 3, Burks started at two, and then Harris could come in as the 1 or 2.....interesting idea.

Lastly, I think AK WOULD be interested in Koc et al offering him a fair contract, a starting position and the idea of hanging his rafter up in Energy Solutions. I think AK'd love it. I would too actually. I look at AK as a bit of a step down from Josh Smith, but step up in passing. I think it'd be great.

Signing Dragic and AK, with the rest returning, I think 50 wins is very likely. Maybe better.

I posted above my thoughts on the signing of Smith, both pros and cons, on another thread. I think he would be a valueable addition to the Jazz and his past seems to have soured Atlanta on him, which means we may be able to get him at a much reduced price than otherwise. If we can't get Smith, then, I think re-signing AK is a great second option. I simply prefer the younger Smith over the older AK.

I posted earlier on this thread the two scenarios under which I think signing Nash would be valid options.

I think signing Dragic would be really good, and agree with Magnus keeping Harris to be the back-up inspite of his heavy salary would be a good idea. If you watched this years playoffs you'd see a strong supporting cast and bench are very important. Harris as a back-up has the potential to be the 6th man of the year like Terry was in Dallas a couple of years ago. If we could pull this off, I'd keep Tinsley as the third point guard and let Watson go.

A third option would be to try and get Lilliard, but this option is only a good one if we can get the necessary pick without gutting ourselves in the process, ending up with insufficient weapons for our new point guard to use and have any real measure of success.

As for outside shooting, I don't think we need to go for a Gay, though getting him for a reasonable price would be alright. Giving up a Jefferson and possibly an expiring contract like Miles or a player like Bell who will definitely not be back for Gay, is one thing, but throwing in draft picks I think is too much, given the Jazz's recent successful track record in the draft.

I'd rather we look at other options, like say Eric Gordan, whose young, but his value has fallen due to injuries. When he's been healthy he's been a really good shooter.

Another option would be trading for a bench player like Jones from Miami, who comes in, much in the mold of Steve Kerr, as a long distance sharp shooter. I mention Jones simply because I watched him with the Heat in the playoffs. I don't know what it would take to get him, but there are such players on other teams we might be able to get an equal value trade for.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:26 pm

Yes, Utah gives up a valuable piece, but another possibility at PG from the same team is lowry. He has publicly said the same thing bell said, saying they cant co-exist with the current coach. Would you give up the GS pick for Lowry? He struggles defensively at times, but i still really like him. He has a nice salary also at 5.75 next year and 6.2 after that.

just salary cap wise, that puts the core of lowry, burks, hayward, favors, and kanter at about 23 million heading into the new era cap wise for the jazz in 2013-14. Not that they go crazy then, because they need to save room to keep the core beyond that, but that is a very very cap figure with that talent.

Ramon Sessions is a possibility. With the new taxes going into effect starting after this year, it will be interesting how much the ***** spend. The structure was set up to eliminate the 90 million dollar team salaries. The ***** are already at 61.5 million with just 4 players heading into the 2013-14 season, and that is without bynum.

Yes, Harris will be 30 heading into the season, but I liked him in the 2nd half of the season. I am not sure if Utah is as needy at PG as people say they are. I still like him for another 2-3 years.

Im not sure if nash is the perfect fit. I like him, and id be excited, but im not sure if he is perfect. The Jazz did not run much pick and roll last year, and that is nash's bread and butter. However, seeing him run the pick and roll with Favors crashing to the basket, could be pretty crazy.

The question I have is if they get one of the PG's mentioned above, where do they move Harris? Harris is too good to come off the bench. I liked him in the 2nd half of the season. Good luck convincing him to come off the bench heading into what could be his last contract year. Or do they sign the PG to backup Harris for a year, then start him? (Obviously, Nash is signed to be a starter.) Would you send him to say Indy, for a future first round pick, and the trade exception?

Thinking of the trade exception, the Jazz are only at about 54 million with 11 players, if they pick up the 1.3 million on tinsley. (Carroll has a TO for less then a million, he will be picked up.) They might be able to sign someone without using the trade exception. Let's not forget, the jazz did not use the amnesty, so they could use it on bell, to free up a little over 3 mil.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:32 pm

therawns wrote:
Yes, Utah gives up a valuable piece, but another possibility at PG from the same team is lowry. He has publicly said the same thing bell said, saying they cant co-exist with the current coach. Would you give up the GS pick for Lowry? He struggles defensively at times, but i still really like him. He has a nice salary also at 5.75 next year and 6.2 after that.

Hell yes. Lowry is a multi-dimensional PG. Assuming he is 100% I'd take him in a heartbeat. I feel like Lowry isn't a superstar but he does so many things so freaking well. He passes, scores, drives, shoots the 3, controls the game, plays D, can score from everywhere all really really well. He just so happens to be a bit of a bulldog too, which a young team like this could use and follow. Also he's young so he'd fit right into this young team. The contract just makes it all too sweet.
Dragic, Lowry, Lilliard, Marshall would all be great PG off season acquisitions.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Sun Jun 24, 2012 4:00 pm

Go get Dragic; that would be great. Don't think Nash/AK is what Jazz need.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:02 pm

outerspacefan wrote:
Go get Dragic; that would be great. Don't think Nash/AK is what Jazz need.

From everything I have read the Rockets are willing to deal and Lowry is on the table but he is not going to come cheap, Lowry is a PG that will make this Jazz team better and would fill their needs for outside shooting to stretch the floor. If they could somehow find a trade with Jefferson that would bring Lowry and say maybe another player and a first round pick would anyone be willing to do it, I think I would if they could get another player like a C/PF type along with Lowry and that pick. Dalembert has 1 year on his contract or Patrick Patterson he started to come on at the end of the season last year, the Jazz needs more than 3 guys to fill the C/PF positions so if they traded Jefferson I think they would have to find a player to fill his spot.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Thu Jul 05, 2012 7:46 pm

So much great conversation going on right now, love it.just wanted to revisit this with updates for the team as it stands right now...
Player Min WS/48WS
Marvin Williams 2400 .120 6.0
Paul Millsap 2500 .170 8.8
Al Jefferson 2500 .170 8.8
Gordon Hayward 2500 .130 6.8
Mo Williams 2700 .090 5.1
Derrick Favors 2400 .140 7.0
Enes Kanter 1100 .100 2.3
Alec Burks 1800 .100 3.8
Earl Watson 200 .003 0.1
Jeremy Evans 400 .160 1.7
DeMarre Carroll 380 .070 .6
Jamaal Tinsley 600 .001 .1
Kevin Murphy 100 .050 .1
Total19680 - 49.9

Again, these are conservative estimates. If you substitute my estimates for what these guys actually did last season you get almost the same result...50 wins. Last year I thought we had a .500 team with the shortened season working in our favor because of our youth and depth, this year I think we have a 50 win team, and unless we have a catastrophic series of injuries to starters I think the potential is for 50+.

Still, I would REALLY like to see the Jazz either convert Burks or Hayward to PG or pick up another PG and drop one of the vets.

From a numbers standpoint Mo Williams really is a push with Harris, but I totally see Mu's point about the intangibles, and I hope he is right. Two things I find interesting/concerning about Mo....

Interesting fact: Mo's production has varied wildly depending on what role he has been asked to play. He is at his best when he is playing PG, and when he isn't relied on to be a top 2 offensive weapon on a team. This is hopefully good news. The Jazz should have enough weapons to allow Mo to play his game at a high efficiency.

Concerning fact: Mo has only played over 70 games in 2 of his 9 seasons in the NBA. AK has a MUCH better on-court record than Mo. This is a major concern now that Harris is gone. If tradition holds we have about 15 games this year without Mo, that's 15 games where we rely on Watson and/or Tinsley at PG. That's a similar situation to what we had last year, when we were 0-3 with losses to GS, Phoenix, and Chicago without Harris.

Marvin Williams is a MASSIVE upgrade over anybody we had on the wing last year. This was a nice pickup for Harris, I actually think it was a pretty even trade in almost every way, but I think Williams will fit better with this team than Harris did. He's a good rebounder from the wing which is something we have needed, and he's a solid 3pt threat, which is another thing we have needed.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Thu Jul 05, 2012 10:00 pm

TheMagnus wrote:


Marvin Williams is a MASSIVE upgrade over anybody we had on the wing last year. This was a nice pickup for Harris, I actually think it was a pretty even trade in almost every way, but I think Williams will fit better with this team than Harris did. He's a good rebounder from the wing which is something we have needed, and he's a solid 3pt threat, which is another thing we have needed.

This is also what I'm excited about. Even if it's a push with Mo(which I do believe its more like Mo will be in all star talk), we added Marv to the team. 3pt, rebounding, good defense to a team that needed all those things. Marv also wants to prove himself Im sure, and sorely needed a fresh start. Really looking forward to his interview too.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Fri Jul 06, 2012 8:11 am

dongibby wrote:
outerspacefan wrote:
Go get Dragic; that would be great. Don't think Nash/AK is what Jazz need.

From everything I have read the Rockets are willing to deal and Lowry is on the table but he is not going to come cheap, Lowry is a PG that will make this Jazz team better and would fill their needs for outside shooting to stretch the floor. If they could somehow find a trade with Jefferson that would bring Lowry and say maybe another player and a first round pick would anyone be willing to do it, I think I would if they could get another player like a C/PF type along with Lowry and that pick. Dalembert has 1 year on his contract or Patrick Patterson he started to come on at the end of the season last year, the Jazz needs more than 3 guys to fill the C/PF positions so if they traded Jefferson I think they would have to find a player to fill his spot.

So much for Lowry not coming cheap. The Raptors got him for a conditional 1st round pick and G.Forbes. The Rockets are really blowing up the team right now. Too bad the Jazz didn't get in on the Lowry giveaway. I'm not anti-Mo, but would take Lowry over him any day of the week.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/kyle-lowry-traded-toronto-raptors-houston-rockets-continue-202826985--nba.html
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Fri Apr 12, 2013 11:24 am

Now that the season is almost over I wanted to bump a few threads from last fall that are super interesting and entertaining...

This is the thread where I predicted this could be a near 50 win team, I plan to do a full post-mortem autoupsy on that prediction soon, and it contains some very interesteing perspectives in hindsight.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:14 pm

TheMagnus wrote:
Now that the season is almost over I wanted to bump a few threads from last fall that are super interesting and entertaining...

This is the thread where I predicted this could be a near 50 win team, I plan to do a full post-mortem autoupsy on that prediction soon, and it contains some very interesteing perspectives in hindsight.

Most of us had very high hopes for the season. With the added shooting, I thought were were going to be a legit 2-3 round team.

I didn't however see that Corbin was going to take the role players the front office brought in and make them starters Evil or Very Mad

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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Sun Apr 14, 2013 12:56 am

TheMagnus wrote:
Now that the season is almost over I wanted to bump a few threads from last fall that are super interesting and entertaining...

This is the thread where I predicted this could be a near 50 win team, I plan to do a full post-mortem autoupsy on that prediction soon, and it contains some very interesteing perspectives in hindsight.

My hindsight along with a few others I'm sure is: Marvin for Harris was a bad trade.... Even if Harris only played 75% of the season (I think he was injured this season a few times) he would have brought a few wins by his skills alone. He can attack, unlike Watson and Tinsley, and is capable of scoring in the 20's any game-- when he is attack mode. Having Watson and Tinsley be our guards when Mo went down was making the offense too predictable- with less options.

Also, maybe having Carrol start and limiting Marvins minutes would have brought more wins... It was a rare bad move for KOC losing Harris for Marvin... not that Harris is great, but he can have great games.. you get my drift... but Carrol is still an enigma with his potential to be better than Marvin.

The Jazz didn't win any back-to-back games this yr if I'm not mistaken... so much for our bigs being dominant and taking in the slack, but then again Favors is one-dimentional right now and Kanter is still young..... I think youth is the killer for a lack-luster season-- so many close games lost because of not optimizing possessions... also, not many free throw bailout wins where a player can get to the line and bring points in a close game.

I'll defer to your stats on defense Mags (if you show some) but defensively the pick-and-roll, as we know, kills Jefferson.... making a close game predictably a loss if the oposition has a point guard that can exploit Jefferson.

This team was close to winning 10 more games a yr but the youth (and not having good backup pg's) made them average. Now who knows what the 2013/14 will be with free agency-- likely making us lose a few players.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Sun Apr 14, 2013 3:22 am

An interesting "what if" is: If the Jazz had the same team for the 13/14 season minus Marvin and Watson and add Harris - would they have close to ten more wins- considering the youth are a yr more experienced?
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Sun Apr 14, 2013 9:21 am

This all points back to the same thing. If the coach doesn't put the players in the right comibinations to succeed, then they will not succeed.

If Allen Iverson was the point guard on the Jazz with Karl, would they have gone to the finals??? Chances are, NO. But wait, Allen Iverson was one of the most unstoppable players of all time???
You need players that compliment each others skillset. Corbin is clueless in this area.

You get my drift. I was and am still fine with the Marvin Williams trade. If this team was coached by George Karl who does NOT care about who is getting paid what (McGee), he just cares about wins AND, knows how to go about it, this team would have been the 6th seed. The talent is 100% there. The coaching is not. Thats the difference here.

The talk about the wins that would have been achieved had Devin stayed etc. This team would have gotten those wins, had Corbin put the right players in the right combinations. Look at Marvin, he's been good off the bench. And look at DC, he's been good no matter what or when. Tinsely/Watson were what they were. Look at the role players that were now forced into starting roles..... CORBIN, failed. Not the trades, not the players. Corbin failed at successful basketball.
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PostSubject: Re: The case for giving this team another chance   Sun Apr 14, 2013 11:41 am

Mutangclan wrote:
... If the coach doesn't put the players in the right comibinations to succeed, then they will not succeed.

... I was and am still fine with the Marvin Williams trade...... this team would have been the 6th seed. The talent is 100% there. The coaching is not....

...CORBIN, failed...

I know coach didn't have a really viable PG for quite some time, but the record with Tinsley starting isn't THAT bad anyways... so I agree that starting Marvin over Demarre somewhat was the starting point of the very bad lineup management by coach.

In my eyes the other important thing was killing confidence building momentum on both Kanter and Favors.. both in games and between games . Favors should have been starting in place of Millsap if not for other argument than separate the Jafferson/Millsap pairing as much as possible.... these 2 are one of the most horrible defensive 4/5 I've ever watched...

SO... I guess I agree with Mut again cheers

Of course I know nothing so this is just my honest fan clown opinion

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