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 Predictions: Mo Williams

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TheMagnus
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PostSubject: Predictions: Mo Williams   Wed Sep 26, 2012 10:33 am

Anybody not have a Insider account and want to see these?

Here's a preview....

Quote :

MO WILLIAMS, PG
Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
18.3 2.6 4.3 14.6
Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Scouting report
+ Score-first combo guard who likes midrange jumpers off dribble. Quick release.
+ Good 3-point shooter off catch. Rarely gets to rim or draws fouls.
+ Average athlete and defender, especially versus quick guards. Great foul shooter.

Analysis
With a switch to an off-the-ball, sixth-man shooting specialist, Williams rebounded from a disappointing 2010-11 to rank in the top third of shooting guards as a scorer and just above the position average in true shooting percentage. His assists took a dip, obviously, since he wasn't playing the point much, but he had a strong pure point rating for a wing. He'll be back to more of a point guard role in Utah, but he'll mostly be spotting up to shoot off the catch -- much as he did for the Clippers.

The midrange J was his bread-and-butter again, as he hit 41.5 percent of his long 2s on five tries a game, but he also shot 38.9 percent on 3s. The main concern is that he stopped getting to the rim. Williams' free throw rate was nearly halved from the previous season -- unfortunate given that he rarely misses once he gets there -- and he had only 73 shots at the rim all season.

Defensively, Williams was a liability. He often cross-matched with Eric Bledsoe, which provided some relief, but he's not much better at guarding 1s than he is at checking 2s. Moreover, any pairing with Chris Paul was pretty much flammable because Williams had to defend much bigger shooting guards. The Clippers gave up 5.1 points per 100 possessions more with Williams on the court, and his Synergy rating was subpar as well. This will be less of a concern as a full-time point guard, but Williams is a minus at either guard spot.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/2012-13-uth-preview/utah-jazz-player-profiles

Edit: on suggestion from Mu I am changing this to a Mo Williams season projection thread, Hollinger's projection is just to get the juices flowing...


Last edited by TheMagnus on Wed Sep 26, 2012 12:36 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Wed Sep 26, 2012 11:14 am

Sounds about right.

Thing is, he will probably get to the rim at a higher rate as a PG (as opposed to a SG with the Clips last year) because he'll not just be standing there waiting for Bledsoe or Paul to penetrate & kick. As the PG on the Jazz, he'll do more penetrating... I'm sure of it.

Defense is just ok, but not having to guard bigger SG's should help. I love that he's a soild shooter from 18'+, that will help the team plenty. Being money from the stripe is always a bonus, whether is from penetraing more, or just nailing every technical foul/illegal defense FT that is presented.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Wed Sep 26, 2012 11:49 am

Having a starting PG that is automatic at the stripe is a huge luxury. Those freebies are a must for winning teams.

As for the projections, I think its way off personally. I'd take some of those points off his ppg and place them directly on assists. I think it's more likely he averages 15ppg and 7.5 assists per game, rounding up to 8 probably. There are some scorers and finishers on this squad, not to mention good spacing now.

Might be fun to have our own projections thread for the top 10 players.....
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Wed Sep 26, 2012 12:34 pm

Mutangclan wrote:

Might be fun to have our own projections thread for the top 10 players.....

Not a bad idea...

lets call this "Predictions: Mo Williams" thread then. I'll post a new one every day for each of the Jazz top 10 players. Except we already have a Hayward thread so I think I'll just revive that one.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Wed Sep 26, 2012 1:04 pm

Mutangclan wrote:
Having a starting PG that is automatic at the stripe is a huge luxury. Those freebies are a must for winning teams.

As for the projections, I think its way off personally. I'd take some of those points off his ppg and place them directly on assists. I think it's more likely he averages 15ppg and 7.5 assists per game, rounding up to 8 probably. There are some scorers and finishers on this squad, not to mention good spacing now.

Gotta remember those are per 48 minute numbers. Per game I think he figures to get around 36 minutes, which puts Hollinger's per game projections at about 14 points, 2 rebounds, and 3 assists, which I think is WAY low.

I think he puts up numbers similar to what he was putting up in LA before he got shoved over to SG...

16 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 steal per game. I also think he shoots his usual 42/38/90 knocking down an average of 2 3's a game.

In less optimistic predictions, I predict he will get injured in November or December and miss at least a month.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:38 pm

TheMagnus wrote:
Mutangclan wrote:
Having a starting PG that is automatic at the stripe is a huge luxury. Those freebies are a must for winning teams.

As for the projections, I think its way off personally. I'd take some of those points off his ppg and place them directly on assists. I think it's more likely he averages 15ppg and 7.5 assists per game, rounding up to 8 probably. There are some scorers and finishers on this squad, not to mention good spacing now.

Gotta remember those are per 48 minute numbers. Per game I think he figures to get around 36 minutes, which puts Hollinger's per game projections at about 14 points, 2 rebounds, and 3 assists, which I think is WAY low.

I think he puts up numbers similar to what he was putting up in LA before he got shoved over to SG...

16 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 steal per game. I also think he shoots his usual 42/38/90 knocking down an average of 2 3's a game.

In less optimistic predictions, I predict he will get injured in November or December and miss at least a month.

Are those per 48 or 40 like above?

Hah, great on the injury call jerk. As for everything else, I think he's capable of going off at any point, but on this squad he's not needed as a scorer. Just a scorer if he's open on a kickout.
Per 36mins I think he's going to average 14pts, 3 rebs, and 8 assists I'll say. I'd gamble and say his FG% goes up from his usual to 44%, with 3's up to 40% and same 90% fts.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:40 pm

So what I'm reading here is Mo is better than Harris at the threeball but Harris was better at penetration. Mo is an average defender....all not surprising but the defending part.

I agree Mo will penetrate more on this team from his obvious role as pg.

I'm hoping but not sold that Mo is better than Harris. I know the knock on Harris was not bringing it every night with being aggressive but when he did the Jazz won, usually. Can Williams bring it as much as Harris did is the question. Also how well he gells with a new team. I don't see a lot of room for error for the Jazz. They need to maximize wins in the West early to make the playoffs. I have complete faith they'll be over .500 at the end of the season, just hope they can reach close to 50 wins to make the playoffs.

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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Fri Apr 12, 2013 12:43 pm

...


Mo averaged 12.9 pts, 2.4 reb, 6.3 ast, .9 stl, 2.7 TO, in 30.7 minutes a game on 43/40/90 and had a PER of 14.7

Interesting that we were closer on the actual numbers than Hollinger but he still nailed the PER prediction almost dead on.

I nailed the hell out of this one though...

TheMagnus wrote:

In less optimistic predictions, I predict he will get injured in November or December and miss at least a month.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Sun Apr 14, 2013 6:19 pm

TheMagnus wrote:
...


Mo averaged 12.9 pts, 2.4 reb, 6.3 ast, .9 stl, 2.7 TO, in 30.7 minutes a game on 43/40/90 and had a PER of 14.7

Interesting that we were closer on the actual numbers than Hollinger but he still nailed the PER prediction almost dead on.

I nailed the hell out of this one though...

TheMagnus wrote:

In less optimistic predictions, I predict he will get injured in November or December and miss at least a month.

Nice prediction on the injury Mags. One thing many of us liked about Mo who remembered him from his first stint was that he plays with a lot of heart and really wants to win. That still seems to be the case with him, but unfortunately that 14.7 PER only ranks Mo at number 38 on the point guard list. So I am with others here who want to shore up our personnel at the point guard position while maybe keeping Mo around to help mentor a younger guy and eventually come off the bench.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Sun Apr 14, 2013 8:02 pm

Crunchtime1 wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:
...


Mo averaged 12.9 pts, 2.4 reb, 6.3 ast, .9 stl, 2.7 TO, in 30.7 minutes a game on 43/40/90 and had a PER of 14.7

Interesting that we were closer on the actual numbers than Hollinger but he still nailed the PER prediction almost dead on.

I nailed the hell out of this one though...

TheMagnus wrote:

In less optimistic predictions, I predict he will get injured in November or December and miss at least a month.

Nice prediction on the injury Mags. One thing many of us liked about Mo who remembered him from his first stint was that he plays with a lot of heart and really wants to win. That still seems to be the case with him, but unfortunately that 14.7 PER only ranks Mo at number 38 on the point guard list. So I am with others here who want to shore up our personnel at the point guard position while maybe keeping Mo around to help mentor a younger guy and eventually come off the bench.

Good post. Rather than start a new thread, I'll piggy back on Crunch's post here with my question. How many of y'all think that our two picks alone are enough to move up enough to snag Burke? Obviously it depends on the needs of the teams picking in the range where he will be picked, but I'm thinking it won't be enough.
So....would you rather dangle another player (Alec burks) to get Burke or would y'all prefer to take a lesser promising pg (McCollum?) or just bpa?
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Sun Apr 14, 2013 10:16 pm

The Voice of Reason wrote:
Crunchtime1 wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:
...


Mo averaged 12.9 pts, 2.4 reb, 6.3 ast, .9 stl, 2.7 TO, in 30.7 minutes a game on 43/40/90 and had a PER of 14.7

Interesting that we were closer on the actual numbers than Hollinger but he still nailed the PER prediction almost dead on.

I nailed the hell out of this one though...

TheMagnus wrote:

In less optimistic predictions, I predict he will get injured in November or December and miss at least a month.

Nice prediction on the injury Mags. One thing many of us liked about Mo who remembered him from his first stint was that he plays with a lot of heart and really wants to win. That still seems to be the case with him, but unfortunately that 14.7 PER only ranks Mo at number 38 on the point guard list. So I am with others here who want to shore up our personnel at the point guard position while maybe keeping Mo around to help mentor a younger guy and eventually come off the bench.

Good post. Rather than start a new thread, I'll piggy back on Crunch's post here with my question. How many of y'all think that our two picks alone are enough to move up enough to snag Burke? Obviously it depends on the needs of the teams picking in the range where he will be picked, but I'm thinking it won't be enough.
So....would you rather dangle another player (Alec burks) to get Burke or would y'all prefer to take a lesser promising pg (McCollum?) or just bpa?

First, what are Mo's numbers per 36mins, since that was what the predictions was for?

Also, I mean, yea, it may be enough. They're calling Burke "now, a lottery pick". So thats more like 8-12 verses top 5 or something. Hard to guess though. And I wouldn't give up on Alec Burks at all. I hate when that comes up. That guy already showed that he is going to be a good player and can contribute. And he hasn't even starter minutes yet.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Sun Apr 14, 2013 10:42 pm

Mutangclan wrote:
The Voice of Reason wrote:
Crunchtime1 wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:
...


Mo averaged 12.9 pts, 2.4 reb, 6.3 ast, .9 stl, 2.7 TO, in 30.7 minutes a game on 43/40/90 and had a PER of 14.7

Interesting that we were closer on the actual numbers than Hollinger but he still nailed the PER prediction almost dead on.

I nailed the hell out of this one though...

TheMagnus wrote:

In less optimistic predictions, I predict he will get injured in November or December and miss at least a month.

Nice prediction on the injury Mags. One thing many of us liked about Mo who remembered him from his first stint was that he plays with a lot of heart and really wants to win. That still seems to be the case with him, but unfortunately that 14.7 PER only ranks Mo at number 38 on the point guard list. So I am with others here who want to shore up our personnel at the point guard position while maybe keeping Mo around to help mentor a younger guy and eventually come off the bench.

Good post. Rather than start a new thread, I'll piggy back on Crunch's post here with my question. How many of y'all think that our two picks alone are enough to move up enough to snag Burke? Obviously it depends on the needs of the teams picking in the range where he will be picked, but I'm thinking it won't be enough.
So....would you rather dangle another player (Alec burks) to get Burke or would y'all prefer to take a lesser promising pg (McCollum?) or just bpa?

First, what are Mo's numbers per 36mins, since that was what the predictions was for?

Also, I mean, yea, it may be enough. They're calling Burke "now, a lottery pick". So thats more like 8-12 verses top 5 or something. Hard to guess though. And I wouldn't give up on Alec Burks at all. I hate when that comes up. That guy already showed that he is going to be a good player and can contribute. And he hasn't even starter minutes yet.

I wouldn't give up on Burks either. I hate hearing that talk too. I thin, he has shown some great improvements and I think there is more potential ready to burst out with another year experience.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:30 am

Exactly. This kid is hitting the 3 now, and supposedly that was his one detriment, outside shooting.

Good college players dont necessarily,and actually more on the rarely side, turn into good NBA players. Alec Burks has already shown he can play in this league, has improved every year, he hasn't started yet, nor gotten starter minutes. He's the one you keep.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Mon Apr 15, 2013 8:07 am

Mutangclan wrote:
Exactly. This kid is hitting the 3 now, and supposedly that was his one detriment, outside shooting.

Good college players dont necessarily,and actually more on the rarely side, turn into good NBA players. Alec Burks has already shown he can play in this league, has improved every year, he hasn't started yet, nor gotten starter minutes. He's the one you keep.
I would honestly be OK with Alec being our starting PG next year (providing we don't land a good PG in the FA market or the draft). For having to make the switch mid-season, and relatively few minutes to do it.....I thought he did a great job...and many times was our best PG during the course of a game.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:26 am

The Voice of Reason wrote:
Mutangclan wrote:
Exactly. This kid is hitting the 3 now, and supposedly that was his one detriment, outside shooting.

Good college players dont necessarily,and actually more on the rarely side, turn into good NBA players. Alec Burks has already shown he can play in this league, has improved every year, he hasn't started yet, nor gotten starter minutes. He's the one you keep.
I would honestly be OK with Alec being our starting PG next year (providing we don't land a good PG in the FA market or the draft). For having to make the switch mid-season, and relatively few minutes to do it.....I thought he did a great job...and many times was our best PG during the course of a game.

I wouldn't start Burks over Mo, assuming we could resign Mo for a reasonable price, but I would consider Mo and Burks for a one two punch at PG if we couldn't land a more promising PG in the draft or by sign and trade. Also, given Mo's one season to get acclimated and him now having the benefit of having Hayward as a starter alongside him rather than Marvin, I suspect Mo would play better overall next season than he has this season --- assuming he does not get injured. On tendex per 48mins, Mo has performed at a very respectable 26.37 over last ten games versus 21.87 for season. And yes, I doubt our two picks would be enough to trade up for Trey Burke.

Mo's numbers per 36 mins: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willima01.html


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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:30 am

Crunchtime1 wrote:
The Voice of Reason wrote:
Mutangclan wrote:
Exactly. This kid is hitting the 3 now, and supposedly that was his one detriment, outside shooting.

Good college players dont necessarily,and actually more on the rarely side, turn into good NBA players. Alec Burks has already shown he can play in this league, has improved every year, he hasn't started yet, nor gotten starter minutes. He's the one you keep.
I would honestly be OK with Alec being our starting PG next year (providing we don't land a good PG in the FA market or the draft). For having to make the switch mid-season, and relatively few minutes to do it.....I thought he did a great job...and many times was our best PG during the course of a game.

I wouldn't start Burkes over Mo, assuming we could resign Mo for a reasonable price, but I would consider Mo and Burks for a one two punch at PG if we couldn't land a more promising PG in the draft or by sign and trade. Also, given Mo's one season to get acclimated and him now having the benefit of having Hayward as a starter alongside him rather than Marvin, I suspect Mo would play better overall next season than he has this season --- assuming he does not get injured. On tendex per 48mins, Mo has performed at a very respectable 26.37 over last ten games versus 21.87 for season. And yes, I don't think our two picks would be enough to trade up for Burke.

Mo's numbers per 36 mins: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willima01.html

I don't want Mo back. He's horrible defensively and he's got a bad hero-ball habit, I'm getting tired of one way players. Rather see them go in a differnet direction.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:34 am

TheMagnus wrote:


I don't want Mo back. He's horrible defensively and he's got a bad hero-ball habit, I'm getting tired of one way players. Rather see them go in a differnet direction.

I'm fine with him gone too; however, we dont have his replacement. And I dont have a clue who is attainable. Right now Mo vs The Field?? I'm taking Mo. However this is TBD for me.........


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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:35 am

TheMagnus wrote:
I don't want Mo back. He's horrible defensively and he's got a bad hero-ball habit, I'm getting tired of one way players. Rather see them go in a differnet direction.

Yes sir. Unless Mo is good with a 6th man role, and the Jazz get themselves a better option as a starter, then I would rather see Mo walk for the same reasons you mentioned Magnus (and because it's almost a guarantee he will miss games due to injury).

I only want one of Foye/Mo to stick around. I don't even care which..... as long as the one they keep is coming off the bench.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Mo Williams   Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:42 am

TheMagnus wrote:
I don't want Mo back. He's horrible defensively and he's got a bad hero-ball habit, I'm getting tired of one way players. Rather see them go in a differnet direction.
Those are my feelings as well. I honestly would rather see Alec starting at PG than Mo. I know Alec may not be the long term solution, but i prefer him over Mo based on what he brings to the table when he is on the floor compared to what Mo brings.
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