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 Predictions: Derrick Favors

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PostSubject: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Mon Oct 01, 2012 5:53 pm

Mr. Hollinger, would you do the honors....

John Hollinger wrote:

DERRICK FAVORS, FC
Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
17.9 12.5 1.5 17.9
Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card

Scouting report
+ Mobile big man with elite physical skills and monstrous defensive potential.
+ Raw offensive instincts. Can finish at rim and draws lots of fouls.
+ Poor shooter. Lacks great post moves and ball skills. Lacks great hands.

Analysis
Favors showed in the second half of the season what a force of nature he's becoming, especially at the defensive end. In the second half of the season in particular, he began cashing in on some of that promise; the Jazz played far better defensively with Favors on the court, partly because it meant Al Jefferson was off it but partly because Favors' length, strength and athleticism make him an All-Defense caliber player down the road. At 6-10 he doesn't quite have ideal size for a center, and he doesn't have the skills of a 4, but he has to play somewhere and center seems the better fit.

Offensively, he's further behind. Favors had some great moments and overall it's tough to argue with 16.6 points and 12.4 boards per 40 minutes, but he had the fourth-worst pure point rating in the NBA and shot 29.8 percent outside the basket area. He shot a lot from out there too, taking nearly three tries a game.

Favors also drew lots of fouls by overwhelming opponents physically, and that rate should only increase as he keeps filling out (he's only 21) and learns how to use shot fakes and draw contact. However, his 64.9 percent mark from the line needs to improve for that to be of much use.

Nonetheless, it was an incredibly encouraging season that marked Favors as a rising star, and could portend some other changes in Utah's frontcourt to make way for him.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Mon Oct 01, 2012 9:01 pm

Tough to predict here, but I'm still saying Fav starts with Al and averages probably 28mins a game. Foul trouble could still hamper him. But in those minutes, Fav is going to go for 12 and 12 with over 2 blks a game. Actually, probably closer to 3, we'll say 2.7blks per. His FG% will battle the best in the league, and his FT's wont be anything great, so he may stay off the floor at the end. His assists will be negligible.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Tue Oct 02, 2012 10:49 pm

TheMagnus wrote:
Mr. Hollinger, would you do the honors....

John Hollinger wrote:

DERRICK FAVORS, FC
Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
17.9 12.5 1.5 17.9
Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card

Scouting report
+ Mobile big man with elite physical skills and monstrous defensive potential.
+ Raw offensive instincts. Can finish at rim and draws lots of fouls.
+ Poor shooter. Lacks great post moves and ball skills. Lacks great hands.

Analysis
Favors showed in the second half of the season what a force of nature he's becoming, especially at the defensive end. In the second half of the season in particular, he began cashing in on some of that promise; the Jazz played far better defensively with Favors on the court, partly because it meant Al Jefferson was off it but partly because Favors' length, strength and athleticism make him an All-Defense caliber player down the road. At 6-10 he doesn't quite have ideal size for a center, and he doesn't have the skills of a 4, but he has to play somewhere and center seems the better fit.

Offensively, he's further behind. Favors had some great moments and overall it's tough to argue with 16.6 points and 12.4 boards per 40 minutes, but he had the fourth-worst pure point rating in the NBA and shot 29.8 percent outside the basket area. He shot a lot from out there too, taking nearly three tries a game.

Favors also drew lots of fouls by overwhelming opponents physically, and that rate should only increase as he keeps filling out (he's only 21) and learns how to use shot fakes and draw contact. However, his 64.9 percent mark from the line needs to improve for that to be of much use.

Nonetheless, it was an incredibly encouraging season that marked Favors as a rising star, and could portend some other changes in Utah's frontcourt to make way for him.

I'm gonna go 15 and 8 with 1.5 bpg.

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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:29 pm

Man Mu, 12 boards in 28 minutes a game? That is A LOT, he didn't even average 12 per 36 last year.

I'm going to temper my expectations a bit, but still predict that he averages an impressive 13 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 assist and 1 steal on 55% FG and 70% FT in 30 minutes a game.

Also thought I would share this insightfull note from Locke today...

David Locke wrote:

Is there a reverse Derrick Favors impact happening at Jazz camp? After just a day the word is that Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap have both been terrific in camp. Both are in amazing physical condition and both have come to camp to re-establish their prominence on this team.

Millsap and Jefferson are both in contract years, but more importantly from a pride standpoint they both can see the immense talent of Derrick Favors and they both can do the math that there are only 96 big man minutes on the roster.

So much of the conversation has been about how Favors is going to develop and what his next steps are going to be as well as how Favors improves playing Millsap and Jefferson. Flip it around for a second and think about the impact Favors is having on Jefferson and Millsap.

Competition is good from all angles.


http://weareutahjazz.com/lockedonjazz/2012/10/03/insider-is-favors-impact-millsap-and-jefferson/
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:20 pm

TheMagnus wrote:
Man Mu, 12 boards in 28 minutes a game? That is A LOT, he didn't even average 12 per 36 last year.

I'm going to temper my expectations a bit, but still predict that he averages an impressive 13 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 assist and 1 steal on 55% FG and 70% FT in 30 minutes a game.

Also thought I would share this insightfull note from Locke today...

David Locke wrote:

Is there a reverse Derrick Favors impact happening at Jazz camp? After just a day the word is that Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap have both been terrific in camp. Both are in amazing physical condition and both have come to camp to re-establish their prominence on this team.

Millsap and Jefferson are both in contract years, but more importantly from a pride standpoint they both can see the immense talent of Derrick Favors and they both can do the math that there are only 96 big man minutes on the roster.

So much of the conversation has been about how Favors is going to develop and what his next steps are going to be as well as how Favors improves playing Millsap and Jefferson. Flip it around for a second and think about the impact Favors is having on Jefferson and Millsap.

Competition is good from all angles.


http://weareutahjazz.com/lockedonjazz/2012/10/03/insider-is-favors-impact-millsap-and-jefferson/

That's what I want to hear! Logjam in the paint. I'm going to guess that Kanter has more game as well. Pretty damn sure we'll be seeing the Big Three line-up far more often this year, no way Favors doesn't get more PT than last. I'm also going to guess that Sap worked on his mid-range game to slide over to the 3 to make this happen. Can't wait for tipoff.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:36 am

I pointed this out briefly in another thread, but I think it's worth talking about the noticeable non-buzz around Favors.

In all of the comments I've heard from camp I don't think I've heard Favors name once. And it's not like people aren't asking, it's just that nobody has anything really to say about him. It's all the Williams' and Kanter and Hayward Tinsley, and even Millsap and Jefferson....

So, should we be worried? What exactly are we expecting out of his "next step"?

I've had a feeling for a while that I didn't think he was going to make a big leap offensively. People are talking about Kanters post moves and jumper, but not a word about Favors, who needed imporvement in both of those areas as much or more than Kanter. To me that silence is deafening. If players improve their offensive game people notice and they talk about it, in fact that is really the ONLY thing they notice, so the fact that nobody is talking about Favors to me means that he's not impressing anybody offensively. At the end of last season when he was playing so well his offensive usage actually went WAY down, and when it did he was WAY more effective. I expect that trend to hold true again, offensively he will be most effective when he is playing away from the ball, hitting the boards, running the pick and roll, and not being asked to create anything in the offense.

Definsively is a different story. He was bordering on becoming an elite defender at the end of last season, and if that progression continues, and I don't see any reason why it won't, he will be an absolute force on that end of the court, so much of a force that he could be a game changer.

So, should we be worried....I don't think so, I think even if his offense doesn't improve, his Defense will make him invaluable. Besides, the Jazz really don't need him to be an offensive powerhouse, and they absolutely need him to anchor the D.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:44 am

TheMagnus wrote:
I pointed this out briefly in another thread, but I think it's worth talking about the noticeable non-buzz around Favors.

In all of the comments I've heard from camp I don't think I've heard Favors name once. And it's not like people aren't asking, it's just that nobody has anything really to say about him. It's all the Williams' and Kanter and Hayward Tinsley, and even Millsap and Jefferson....

So, should we be worried? What exactly are we expecting out of his "next step"?

I've had a feeling for a while that I didn't think he was going to make a big leap offensively. People are talking about Kanters post moves and jumper, but not a word about Favors, who needed imporvement in both of those areas as much or more than Kanter. To me that silence is deafening. If players improve their offensive game people notice and they talk about it, in fact that is really the ONLY thing they notice, so the fact that nobody is talking about Favors to me means that he's not impressing anybody offensively. At the end of last season when he was playing so well his offensive usage actually went WAY down, and when it did he was WAY more effective. I expect that trend to hold true again, offensively he will be most effective when he is playing away from the ball, hitting the boards, running the pick and roll, and not being asked to create anything in the offense.

Definsively is a different story. He was bordering on becoming an elite defender at the end of last season, and if that progression continues, and I don't see any reason why it won't, he will be an absolute force on that end of the court, so much of a force that he could be a game changer.

So, should we be worried....I don't think so, I think even if his offense doesn't improve, his Defense will make him invaluable. Besides, the Jazz really don't need him to be an offensive powerhouse, and they absolutely need him to anchor the D.

Solid point. I'm not concerned, but I have been waiting to hear about how great Favor's looks, but it hasn't happened ... yet.

I don't know that I ever expect Derrick to be an offensive force. Similarly to D.Howard, he needs to be a defensive beast & have his offense be "good enough" IMO. Having a reliable 12' jumper, and a couple decent post moves (jump hook?, maybe up-&-under?) is all I'm looking for. Having Al, Millsap & even the potential offesive game of Enes, make DF's necessity for a strong offensive game not nearly as important.

I still love having Derrick defending the paint, snaggin boards that should be out a any mortal-man's reach, and throwing down a couple facials each game... even if his offense isn't perfect.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:35 am

zero24gravity wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:
I pointed this out briefly in another thread, but I think it's worth talking about the noticeable non-buzz around Favors.

In all of the comments I've heard from camp I don't think I've heard Favors name once. And it's not like people aren't asking, it's just that nobody has anything really to say about him. It's all the Williams' and Kanter and Hayward Tinsley, and even Millsap and Jefferson....

So, should we be worried? What exactly are we expecting out of his "next step"?

I've had a feeling for a while that I didn't think he was going to make a big leap offensively. People are talking about Kanters post moves and jumper, but not a word about Favors, who needed imporvement in both of those areas as much or more than Kanter. To me that silence is deafening. If players improve their offensive game people notice and they talk about it, in fact that is really the ONLY thing they notice, so the fact that nobody is talking about Favors to me means that he's not impressing anybody offensively. At the end of last season when he was playing so well his offensive usage actually went WAY down, and when it did he was WAY more effective. I expect that trend to hold true again, offensively he will be most effective when he is playing away from the ball, hitting the boards, running the pick and roll, and not being asked to create anything in the offense.

Definsively is a different story. He was bordering on becoming an elite defender at the end of last season, and if that progression continues, and I don't see any reason why it won't, he will be an absolute force on that end of the court, so much of a force that he could be a game changer.

So, should we be worried....I don't think so, I think even if his offense doesn't improve, his Defense will make him invaluable. Besides, the Jazz really don't need him to be an offensive powerhouse, and they absolutely need him to anchor the D.

Solid point. I'm not concerned, but I have been waiting to hear about how great Favor's looks, but it hasn't happened ... yet.

I don't know that I ever expect Derrick to be an offensive force. Similarly to D.Howard, he needs to be a defensive beast & have his offense be "good enough" IMO. Having a reliable 12' jumper, and a couple decent post moves (jump hook?, maybe up-&-under?) is all I'm looking for. Having Al, Millsap & even the potential offesive game of Enes, make DF's necessity for a strong offensive game not nearly as important.

I still love having Derrick defending the paint, snaggin boards that should be out a any mortal-man's reach, and throwing down a couple facials each game... even if his offense isn't perfect.

The comparison to Howard is interesting...very, very, interesting. I always used to cringe a bit when people wanted to make that comparison, but as looked hard at it, I was a little shocked.

Check this out...

Measurements
Favors
Hieght 6'10.25", Standing Reach 9'2", Max Vert 35.5", Max Vert Reach 12'1.5"

Howard
Hieght 6'10.25", Standing Reach 9'3.5", Max Vert 35.5", Max Vert Reach 12'3"

Rookie Year - Age 19 - Stats per 36 Minutes (Howard was 6 Months younger, relativley speaking, than Favors in his first season)
Favors
12.5 pts, 9.7 reb, 1.6 blk, 52% FG, 59% FT

Howard
13.2 pts, 11.1 reb, 1.8 blk, 52% FG, 67% FT

Sophmore Year - Age 20 - Stats per 36 minutes
Favors
14.9 pts, 11.1 reb, 1.7 blk, 50% FG, 65% FT

Howard
15.4 pts, 12.1 reb, 1.5 blk, 53% FG, 60% FT



Really hard to ignore the similarities there. In year 3 Howard made the jump from being a modrately efficient offensive player to having league leading FG%, and when you look at how he did that, he almost never took a jumper and he rarely got the ball in the post, 80% of his offense came from lobs or passes at the basket and offensive rebounds, he led the league in dunks. It was over years 4 and 5 that he really expanded his array of post moves. That's what Favors needs to do this year, forget about all of that nonsense outside of the paint, making moves, and taking shots, he should be able to just catch the ball near the basket and overpower people with his length and athleticism, and the Jazz coaching staff needs to put him in positions and roles so he can do that.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:05 am

TheMagnus wrote:

Really hard to ignore the similarities there. In year 3 Howard made the jump from being a modrately efficient offensive player to having league leading FG%, and when you look at how he did that, he almost never took a jumper and he rarely got the ball in the post, 80% of his offense came from lobs or passes at the basket and offensive rebounds, he led the league in dunks. It was over years 4 and 5 that he really expanded his array of post moves. That's what Favors needs to do this year, forget about all of that nonsense outside of the paint, making moves, and taking shots, he should be able to just catch the ball near the basket and overpower people with his length and athleticism, and the Jazz coaching staff needs to put him in positions and roles so he can do that.

Right, the thing I AM looking for Derrick to be is more aggressive. Rip-the-rim-off-the-backboard-aggression.

It's one thing to be big & super athletic, it's another thing to be able to use that god-given-ability. Dwight WANTS to throw it down. He attacks the rim like it's his worst enemy. I haven't see that out of Derrick on a regular basis. Dude CAN jump over, around & through people.... the question is, does he WANT to?
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:22 am

zero24gravity wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:

Really hard to ignore the similarities there. In year 3 Howard made the jump from being a modrately efficient offensive player to having league leading FG%, and when you look at how he did that, he almost never took a jumper and he rarely got the ball in the post, 80% of his offense came from lobs or passes at the basket and offensive rebounds, he led the league in dunks. It was over years 4 and 5 that he really expanded his array of post moves. That's what Favors needs to do this year, forget about all of that nonsense outside of the paint, making moves, and taking shots, he should be able to just catch the ball near the basket and overpower people with his length and athleticism, and the Jazz coaching staff needs to put him in positions and roles so he can do that.

Right, the thing I AM looking for Derrick to be is more aggressive. Rip-the-rim-off-the-backboard-aggression.

It's one thing to be big & super athletic, it's another thing to be able to use that god-given-ability. Dwight WANTS to throw it down. He attacks the rim like it's his worst enemy. I haven't see that out of Derrick on a regular basis. Dude CAN jump over, around & through people.... the question is, does he WANT to?

I watched some clips of a young Karl Malone and that very thing was what stuck out to me the most. I mean Karl was a freakish athlete, really ahead of his time in the NBA, but the thing that really separated him was his raw agression. His clear desire to smash through whatever and whoever was in his way, and the way he clearly rellished every opportunity to do it, was I think what made him such a remarkable player.

In fact, lets all remember what that looked like, and as we do we can rekindle our excitement for what will hopefully be another great Utah Jazz big man ...

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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Fri Oct 05, 2012 1:24 pm

God I miss watching Stockton and Malone Play!

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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:26 pm

TheMagnus wrote:
zero24gravity wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:

Really hard to ignore the similarities there. In year 3 Howard made the jump from being a modrately efficient offensive player to having league leading FG%, and when you look at how he did that, he almost never took a jumper and he rarely got the ball in the post, 80% of his offense came from lobs or passes at the basket and offensive rebounds, he led the league in dunks. It was over years 4 and 5 that he really expanded his array of post moves. That's what Favors needs to do this year, forget about all of that nonsense outside of the paint, making moves, and taking shots, he should be able to just catch the ball near the basket and overpower people with his length and athleticism, and the Jazz coaching staff needs to put him in positions and roles so he can do that.

Right, the thing I AM looking for Derrick to be is more aggressive. Rip-the-rim-off-the-backboard-aggression.

It's one thing to be big & super athletic, it's another thing to be able to use that god-given-ability. Dwight WANTS to throw it down. He attacks the rim like it's his worst enemy. I haven't see that out of Derrick on a regular basis. Dude CAN jump over, around & through people.... the question is, does he WANT to?

I watched some clips of a young Karl Malone and that very thing was what stuck out to me the most. I mean Karl was a freakish athlete, really ahead of his time in the NBA, but the thing that really separated him was his raw agression. His clear desire to smash through whatever and whoever was in his way, and the way he clearly rellished every opportunity to do it, was I think what made him such a remarkable player.

In fact, lets all remember what that looked like, and as we do we can rekindle our excitement for what will hopefully be another great Utah Jazz big man ...


Whoa, that clip kinda gave me the Way Back Shivers in a good way. Favors has that same freakish athletic potential - who knows if he has that same manimal in him, but we will find out. Completely agree that what separates DF from greatness is only that intangible - plus a wingman like Stock! Those two were poetry in motion, they both needed the other to be the best. DF does not need to be the next Malone to take the Jazz up to a new level, he just needs to be the next DF.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:13 pm

Favors will be ok, but he still has to big time work on his skills and in how to use athleticism to his advantage; dude's still far, very far away from he could be had he get proper coaching.

Last season I remember some fellow poster wrote that sometimes Kanter's game appeared to be better rounded than Favors'. I think that assertion was not far from reality.

I fully expect Favors to be the starting 4 for the Jazz, but the tale from last season will hit him hard and quick again if he's not ready... and this year will be worst because a trimmed down Kanter can make some noise behind him...
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Sat Oct 06, 2012 10:54 am

outerspacefan wrote:
Favors will be ok, but he still has to big time work on his skills and in how to use athleticism to his advantage; dude's still far, very far away from he could be had he get proper coaching.

Last season I remember some fellow poster wrote that sometimes Kanter's game appeared to be better rounded than Favors'. I think that assertion was not far from reality.

I fully expect Favors to be the starting 4 for the Jazz, but the tale from last season will hit him hard and quick again if he's not ready... and this year will be worst because a trimmed down Kanter can make some noise behind him...

I am in agreement that people have been sleeping on Kanter. A better comparison between Favors and Kanter potential will be at the end of this season. Reports from camp is that Kanter is showing a much improved offensive game, he's hitting jumpers and showing new moves in the paint. Since he has already proven he is a good position defender and savage rebounder, his game is already more well-rounded than Favors and I suspect his versatility is going to eventually give Favors a run for his money. I agree with another poster that Favors game will never be about hitting the 15 footer, his ceiling lies in the country that Howard inhabits, a beast in the paint.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:53 pm

DavidLocke wrote:
So much of the conversation has been about how Favors is going to develop and what his next steps are going to be as well as how Favors improves playing Millsap and Jefferson. Flip it around for a second and think about the impact Favors is having on Jefferson and Millsap.

Competition is good from all angles.

Excellent points. Like Larry Kudlow says: "Free market capitalism and competition is the best path to growth and prosperity", with the growth and prosperity in this case being our Utah Jazz team. Go Jazz!
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Sat Oct 06, 2012 4:37 pm

33 min. 14 points, 11 rbs, 2.5 blks, 70% ft.

In the words oh Mike Tyson. That would make me ecstatic.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Sat Oct 06, 2012 5:03 pm

outerspacefan wrote:
Favors will be ok, but he still has to big time work on his skills and in how to use athleticism to his advantage; dude's still far, very far away from he could be had he get proper coaching.

Last season I remember some fellow poster wrote that sometimes Kanter's game appeared to be better rounded than Favors'. I think that assertion was not far from reality.

I fully expect Favors to be the starting 4 for the Jazz, but the tale from last season will hit him hard and quick again if he's not ready... and this year will be worst because a trimmed down Kanter can make some noise behind him...

Looking at the Dwight comparison and his skill set, I am more convinced that ever that his natural position is probably the 5.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Sat Oct 06, 2012 6:16 pm

TheMagnus wrote:

Looking at the Dwight comparison and his skill set, I am more convinced that ever that his natural position is probably the 5.

I think you're right. Been thinking it for some time now. He can certainly be a top tier PF in the league, but he will have to work and he will need specific coaching on it.

About Dwight comparison, he kind of start his path to dominance in his third year, but dude played almost 32+ minutes per game in his first season and 36+minutes in his second year. Derrick had not such a chance, so his developement is kind of delayed.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Sat Oct 06, 2012 7:05 pm

outerspacefan wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:

Looking at the Dwight comparison and his skill set, I am more convinced that ever that his natural position is probably the 5.

I think you're right. Been thinking it for some time now. He can certainly be a top tier PF in the league, but he will have to work and he will need specific coaching on it.

About Dwight comparison, he kind of start his path to dominance in his third year, but dude played almost 32+ minutes per game in his first season and 36+minutes in his second year. Derrick had not such a chance, so his developement is kind of delayed.

Excellent point about the minutes Dwight had in his first two seasons compared to Favors.

More the reason that he HAS to play 30+ this year if he'll ever have a shot at fullfilling his potential.
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions: Derrick Favors   Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:11 pm

...

Favors averaged 9.5 pts, 7 reb, 1 ast, .8 stl, 1.7 blk, 1.6 TO, in 23 minutes a game on 49/69 shooting and had a PER of 17.7

Again, scary accurate predictions from Hollinger, Unfortunately he didn't get more minutes, if he did Alive would have pretty much nailed it....

aliveandkickin wrote:
33 min. 14 points, 11 rbs, 2.5 blks, 70% ft.

In the words of Mike Tyson. That would make me ecstatic.

A note to go along with the "Is he a PF or a C argument... Per 82games.com, Favors was worse individually at C, mostly because he didn't shoot well, but the Jazz as a team were massively better with him at C than they were with him at PF.
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