Predictions: Al Jefferson

But first, a word from Mr. Hollinger...

John Hollinger wrote:

AL JEFFERSON, C
Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
21.4 10.9 2.4 21.5
Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card

Scouting report
+ Left-block post scorer with huge hands. Much improved passer. Good rebounder.
+ Arsenal includes jump hook to 12 feet, great shot fake, and lethal drop step.
+ Poor defender with slow reactions. Too slow for 4, but short for a 5.

Analysis
Jefferson discovered the joys of passing out of double-teams and had a career season as a result, unfathomably leading all centers in pure point rating (yes, this really happened) with the help of a historically low turnover ratio.

His ability to create shots without turning the ball over is truly phenomenal. Jefferson had miscues on only 4.7 percent of his possessions last season. Nobody in the history of the NBA has had a usage rate this high and turnover ratio this low. Nobody.

Yes, there were some drawbacks to this approach. Jefferson took a lot of midrange jumpers and half-hooks and rarely attacked the rim, so he had one of the lowest free throw rates at his position. As a result, his true shooting percentage was ordinary. But creating league-average shooting with virtually no turnover risk is a great bargain, and despite his penchant for ball-stopping it gave Jefferson genuine offensive value.

As for defensive value, we'll get back to you on that. Jefferson blocks shots and is a good rebounder, but primarily he seems concerned with avoiding fouls that might take him off the court. Only seven centers fouled less, and it wasn't because Jefferson was in such exquisite defensive position that he didn't need to gamble. The Jazz gave up 1.9 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court last season, and that was his best mark in the past three years; Synergy also rated him below the league average.

TheMagnus wrote:

But first, a word from Mr. Hollinger...

John Hollinger wrote:

AL JEFFERSON, C
Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
21.4 10.9 2.4 21.5
Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card

Scouting report
+ Left-block post scorer with huge hands. Much improved passer. Good rebounder.
+ Arsenal includes jump hook to 12 feet, great shot fake, and lethal drop step.
+ Poor defender with slow reactions. Too slow for 4, but short for a 5.

Analysis
Jefferson discovered the joys of passing out of double-teams and had a career season as a result, unfathomably leading all centers in pure point rating (yes, this really happened) with the help of a historically low turnover ratio.

As for defensive value, we'll get back to you on that.

Seriously, what is not to love about that analysis? I think with more offensive weapons on the wing Al's PER is going to drop 3-4 points, especially if he keeps up last year's seriously smart decision to start kicking the ball out more often. That is a serious weapon for a guy who can already kill you in the paint. Go ahead Al, feel free to hit the open wing man with a pass when you're doubled, they got your back!

I think Al is going to have the best season of his career, and I think most of that stems from his surrounding teammates.

So I see him averaging actually a couple less minutes, at like 32 a game, he shoots 52% this season, for the first time in a long time. His rebounds will go down slightly because of his teammates abilities to 9 a game, but he'll average high 2's in assists, still low TO's, 1 steal a game, almost 2 blks but will average 22.5ppg.

....

big Al averaged 17.2 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.1 stl, 1.1 blk, 1.3 TO in 32.9 minutes on 49/75 shooting and had a PER of 20.6

Hollinger almost dead on with this one.