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 Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.

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MTJazz
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PostSubject: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Thu Feb 28, 2013 12:43 pm

Hollinger's power ranking have the Jazz in 8th place in the West with playoff odds at 61% chance of making it http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds. Teamrankings gives them a 70% chance http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/team/utah-jazz/projections

All the other WC teams ranked below the 8th seed besides the Lakers are definitively out of the hunt for squeezing in at the 8th spot, with Hollinger giving them a 40% chance of making the playoffs. In other words, all the Jazz have to do is end the season with a better record than the Lakers and they are in. The Jazz currently have a 3 game cushion over the Fakies.

It is possible that Houston and/or GSW could slide more than the Jazz, in which case they can duke it out with the Lakers for the last seed. But honestly, it will take a pretty phenomenal melt-down by the Jazz or surge by the Lakers in order for the Jazz to slip into the lottery.

Sooo....looks pretty good for the Jazz to earn the right to be swept by the Spurs or OKC, or best case scenario, going 1-4 with the Clips. Yeehah! I think barring a stellar run by the Jazz where they suddenly show an ability to regularly beat playoff teams on the road, (much less at home, ugh), they look to be an easy out. Anyone else besides me suddenly excited for the FA follies this summer? Go Jazz.
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Thu Feb 28, 2013 12:59 pm

The Lakers actually have to finish better than the Jazz, rather than the other way around, because the Jazz own the tiebreaker, so that means the Lakers have to make up 4 games. The odds are in their favor, and last week I would have totally agreed with you, but 3 losses in a row, 2 at home, have lowered my confidence to about 50/50.

I actually am excited for the summer. I think every game that goes by makes me more excited about the young players we have on our roster, two draft picks, Marvin Williams expiring contract... I feel like this is the summer we finnally turn things over to the youth.
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Thu Feb 28, 2013 1:16 pm

TheMagnus wrote:
The Lakers actually have to finish better than the Jazz, rather than the other way around, because the Jazz own the tiebreaker, so that means the Lakers have to make up 4 games. The odds are in their favor, and last week I would have totally agreed with you, but 3 losses in a row, 2 at home, have lowered my confidence to about 50/50.

I actually am excited for the summer. I think every game that goes by makes me more excited about the young players we have on our roster, two draft picks, Marvin Williams expiring contract... I feel like this is the summer we finnally turn things over to the youth.

Point noted. So, like watching a train wreck happen in slow motion, let's have even more fun rooting for the Fakies to fade. Jazz have a 4 game cushion. It will go down as one of the more profound Jazz epic fails, (though hard to beat the meltdown of the '10-'11 season) if they blow this, giving us all unlimited fodder to piss and moan on until this summer when we can reboot and get all excited about our potential again. If it wasn't for the fact it is the galldarn Fakies we are trying to keep out of the playoffs, a profound karmic justice/victory for recent history Jazz fans, I guess I really wouldn't care if the Jazz made the playoffs or not this year. This year's draft, while short on automatic future all-stars in the 1-3 picks, is actually decently deep, and a mid-range lotto pick could score a decent prospect. If the Jazz make the playoffs, we are left with two low round first picks.
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Thu Feb 28, 2013 1:34 pm

MTJazz wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:
The Lakers actually have to finish better than the Jazz, rather than the other way around, because the Jazz own the tiebreaker, so that means the Lakers have to make up 4 games. The odds are in their favor, and last week I would have totally agreed with you, but 3 losses in a row, 2 at home, have lowered my confidence to about 50/50.

I actually am excited for the summer. I think every game that goes by makes me more excited about the young players we have on our roster, two draft picks, Marvin Williams expiring contract... I feel like this is the summer we finnally turn things over to the youth.

Point noted. So, like watching a train wreck happen in slow motion, let's have even more fun rooting for the Fakies to fade. Jazz have a 4 game cushion. It will go down as one of the more profound Jazz epic fails, (though hard to beat the meltdown of the '10-'11 season) if they blow this, giving us all unlimited fodder to piss and moan on until this summer when we can reboot and get all excited about our potential again. If it wasn't for the fact it is the galldarn Fakies we are trying to keep out of the playoffs, a profound karmic justice/victory for recent history Jazz fans, I guess I really wouldn't care if the Jazz made the playoffs or not this year. This year's draft, while short on automatic future all-stars in the 1-3 picks, is actually decently deep, and a mid-range lotto pick could score a decent prospect. If the Jazz make the playoffs, we are left with two low round first picks.

Ya, it kind of sucks that the east sucks so bad, if the Jazz finnish 9th in the west they get the 14th pick, if they finnish 8th they likely fall all the way to 17th or 18th. Still, two picks around 20 is good enough to trade up 4 or 5 spots and get a quality player.

Agree on the Faker motivation too, being responsible for keeping them out of the playoffs would be a sweet consolation prize.
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Thu Feb 28, 2013 1:58 pm

TheMagnus wrote:
The Lakers actually have to finish better than the Jazz, rather than the other way around, because the Jazz own the tiebreaker, so that means the Lakers have to make up 4 games. The odds are in their favor, and last week I would have totally agreed with you, but 3 losses in a row, 2 at home, have lowered my confidence to about 50/50.

I actually am excited for the summer. I think every game that goes by makes me more excited about the young players we have on our roster, two draft picks, Marvin Williams expiring contract... I feel like this is the summer we finnally turn things over to the youth.

Marvin Williams OPTION.....which he'll of course take. When he does, then Jazz can trade him as an expiring hopefully.
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Thu Feb 28, 2013 2:22 pm

TheMagnus wrote:

Agree on the Faker motivation too, being responsible for keeping them out of the playoffs would be a sweet consolation prize.

To me, more-so than the Lakers franchise missing the playoffs (though I do want that), I want Kobe's "playoff guarantee" to be squashed.
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PostSubject: back to usual in SLC   Thu Feb 28, 2013 5:41 pm

as much as I love Utah basketball nobody on the Jazz has as much drive as Kobe to be in the playoffs. If there is a player please name him.

we are losing, the Fakers are winning some and its about crunch time.

as much as I hate Kobe for being such a dick, he has a really good chance to get in. the Jazz? we always seem to be playing for the 8 seed...

lets not forget the Mavs-----------DOH!
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Thu Feb 28, 2013 7:00 pm

Only one thing I want more than Kobe's guarantee to be ripped away from him as he shoots 8-31.......Corbin to get off his ass, and do whats right for the TEAM, not whats right for a couple guys.
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Thu Feb 28, 2013 7:34 pm

Mutangclan wrote:
Only one thing I want more than Kobe's guarantee to be ripped away from him as he shoots 8-31.......Corbin to get off his ass, and do whats right for the TEAM, not whats right for a couple guys.

I think then this board might be in rare consensus...we really want the Jazz to make the playoffs, (rather than take that mid-lotto pick that would come with the 9th seed), for no other reason than to watch Kobe point fingers and crap in his own Lakers nest by not making good on his guarantee. The other great aspect of this whole Lakers thing? If Dwight re-ups, the team hasn't changed a bit, still has no tradable pieces and no future draft picks heading into lux tax hell. In other words, they likely won't be any better next year either! Somewhere along the line, the Lakers lost sight of championship team building strategy in this era. Buying championships isn't as easy as it once was. (Sad side note, we are now entering the a couple year period of Heat dominance, they actually pulled off the Superteam gamble an are prohibitive favorites until the Big Three contracts expire).
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:06 am

Lakers beat up on Minny. Going into Jazz v Jordancats, Jazz lead now 3.5 games. Jazz absolutely have to beat the Cats, stop the at home hemorrhaging.
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:28 pm

Looks like the Jazz only lead the Lakers by 2.5, not 3.5, but Mags said we have the tiebreaker so I guess that means a 3 game lead.
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Fri Mar 01, 2013 6:02 pm

Crunchtime1 wrote:
Looks like the Jazz only lead the Lakers by 2.5, not 3.5, but Mags said we have the tiebreaker so I guess that means a 3 game lead.

By golly, you are right. Not feeling that great about our prospects currently especially with so many players gimped up right now. The upcoming road trip could be enough to swing the Jazz onto the bubble. Scary thing is the Lakers are finally beginning to play some better ball. I wish this whole conversation was about moving up the seedings but the Jazz have not played that well since the All-star break and Hous and GSW have arrested their freefalls. At least tonight we will probably see the Core 4 get big minutes, a little glimpse of the future. Here is hoping they kick some ass tonight!
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Sat Mar 02, 2013 2:13 am

MTJazz wrote:
At least tonight we will probably see the Core 4 get big minutes, a little glimpse of the future. Here is hoping they kick some ass tonight!

Man, It would be fun to see that again!
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Sun Mar 03, 2013 12:20 pm

Golden State doing their part again, Utah only a 1/2 game out of sixth now....
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Mon Mar 04, 2013 6:59 pm

Mutangclan wrote:
Golden State doing their part again, Utah only a 1/2 game out of sixth now....

If anyone gives the Lakers a playoff spot, I think it will be Golden State. I didn't think they would slump, but, without Bogut they have no defense and are very beatable.
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:42 am

Not like anyone hasn't noticed, but it is recorded here for history: On March 9, 2013, the Jazz own a half game lead over the Lakers for the final playoff spot. And play NY on the road tonight. When Jazzland wakes up tomorrow, chances are 90% we are on the outside looking in, chasing the Lakers versus the other way around.
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:22 am

MTJazz wrote:
Not like anyone hasn't noticed, but it is recorded here for history: On March 9, 2013, the Jazz own a half game lead over the Lakers for the final playoff spot. And play NY on the road tonight. When Jazzland wakes up tomorrow, chances are 90% we are on the outside looking in, chasing the Lakers versus the other way around.

It's a guarantee that the Jazz won't make the playoffs at this point. And this is not just because they have been inept...the NBA and Darth Stern want the Lakers in the playoffs, and they will do everything in their evil Sith powers to make that happen.

We might as well start talking lottery and the free agent market right now.
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PostSubject: Now a Texas thing?   Wed Mar 13, 2013 12:47 pm

Don't look now but Dallas is apparently going to make things interesting for the last spot in the playoffs. They currently trail the Jazz by 2.5 games, and after a likely loss to OKC tonight, they will be 1.5 games back. Given the way the Lakers are playing, (up to potential), there isn't a good reason that this level will suddenly cool anytime soon - pretty sure they are going to overtake Houston and not even look back over their shoulder at the Jazz. So maybe this is shifting to a Houston/Dallas thing. That coming Texas 3-step trip where they have the pleasure of playing all three Texas teams could seal the deal. I feel only marginally better with prospects given it is now quite possible its not the Lakers boosting the Jazz from the playoffs
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Wed Mar 13, 2013 1:13 pm

MTJazz wrote:
Don't look now but Dallas is apparently going to make things interesting for the last spot in the playoffs. They currently trail the Jazz by 2.5 games, and after a likely loss to OKC tonight, they will be 1.5 games back. Given the way the Lakers are playing, (up to potential), there isn't a good reason that this level will suddenly cool anytime soon - pretty sure they are going to overtake Houston and not even look back over their shoulder at the Jazz. So maybe this is shifting to a Houston/Dallas thing. That coming Texas 3-step trip where they have the pleasure of playing all three Texas teams could seal the deal. I feel only marginally better with prospects given it is now quite possible its not the Lakers boosting the Jazz from the playoffs

Noticed that, but Dallas has an even tougher schedule than Utah down the stretch, they play SA in SA tomorrow and I highly doubt the Spurs phone in 2 in a row, expecially against a rival.

Should be interesting though, and I think that Texas road trip will make or break the Jazz playoff hopes. The Jazz could easily lose their next 3 in a row (@OKC, MEM, NYK) going into it, and if they do they'd really be in a must win situation in both Houston and Dallas.

Right now I'm predicting that they lose to OKC but get wins over Memphis and New York at home, keeping pace with the Lakers who will lose at least one of their next 3. I also predict that the either the Rockets or the Warriors will lose 2 of their next 3, setting up a situation where if the Jazz can win 2 of 3 or better on the road-trip they will end up in 7th place, and if they finish 0-3 they will drop all the way to 10th.

Gotta love the WEST!!!
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Sat Mar 23, 2013 12:19 pm

As of today the Jazz are 1.5 behind the the Fakies after they just choked on a Wizard sandwich with both Kobe and Gasol. Gives a guy a shred of hope that the Lakers could still screw this up. Nahhhh, sadly, they will do just enough.

On the other hand, Dallas has won 7-3 in the last 10 and now sit 1 game back of the Jazz. And somehow Portland is there as well. Dallas game is the last of the Texas 3 Step run and once again, like every game from here on out, is "must win".

Kind of like watching a terminal patient on experimental meds...not so fun, looking for good news in bad news (loss to SA), ignoring the odds...
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Sat Mar 23, 2013 12:32 pm

MTJazz wrote:
As of today the Jazz are 1.5 behind the the Fakies after they just choked on a Wizard sandwich with both Kobe and Gasol. Gives a guy a shred of hope that the Lakers could still screw this up. Nahhhh, sadly, they will do just enough.

On the other hand, Dallas has won 7-3 in the last 10 and now sit 1 game back of the Jazz. And somehow Portland is there as well. Dallas game is the last of the Texas 3 Step run and once again, like every game from here on out, is "must win".

Kind of like watching a terminal patient on experimental meds...not so fun, looking for good news in bad news (loss to SA), ignoring the odds...

When the dust settles....jazz could slip to 10th or so in the west. In fact, that's where I expect them to land.
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Sat Mar 23, 2013 5:26 pm

MTJazz wrote:
As of today the Jazz are 1.5 behind the the Fakies after they just choked on a Wizard sandwich with both Kobe and Gasol. Gives a guy a shred of hope that the Lakers could still screw this up. Nahhhh, sadly, they will do just enough.

On the other hand, Dallas has won 7-3 in the last 10 and now sit 1 game back of the Jazz. And somehow Portland is there as well. Dallas game is the last of the Texas 3 Step run and once again, like every game from here on out, is "must win".

Kind of like watching a terminal patient on experimental meds...not so fun, looking for good news in bad news (loss to SA), ignoring the odds...

Maybe we should start pretending that we're doing a bang-up tank job to get more ping-pong balls??
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Sat Mar 23, 2013 5:28 pm

Mutangclan wrote:
Golden State doing their part again, Utah only a 1/2 game out of sixth now....

Three short weeks ago. Wow.
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Sat Mar 23, 2013 7:29 pm

Trollificus wrote:
Mutangclan wrote:
Golden State doing their part again, Utah only a 1/2 game out of sixth now....

Three short weeks ago. Wow.

Funny, I just cruised the whole thread myself and noticed how the tone of this started with "Damn, it would be great karmic payback to keep the Lakers out of the playoffs, " to "Oh man, this ain't going so good" to "I predict the Jazz come in 10th in the West". Hollinger now has the odds of the Jazz making the playoffs at 31%, Dallas at 13.5% and Portland at 8.2%. Jazz are 6 of 14 in last 20 games and have beaten exactly 1 playoff bound team in that time, (Memphis at home).

Lets look at the rest of the schedule - I see the odds a tiny bit better than 31% do the "toss up" games with 5 wins coming, 5 losses and 3 toss ups. So, best case scenario is the W's and toss-ups and Jazz finish 42-40, lose the toss-ups and its 39-43. Interestingly, the Fakies have a far tougher close-out schedule than the Jazz do (Fakies strength of schedule 5th, Jazz 18th). Yeah its bleak, but still a sliver of hope.

@ Dallas - L
v Philly - W
v Phx - W
@ Portland - toss up
v Nets - toss up
v Portland - toss up
v Denver - L
v NO - W
@ GS - L
v OKC - L
v Minny - W
@ Minny - W
@ Memphis - L
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PostSubject: Re: Jazz Playoffs? It's a Laker's thing.   Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:58 am

Don't look now but Mavs are now tied with the Jazz at the 9 spot after an impressive victory against the Clips. They are 7-3 in the last 10 while the Jazz have gone 3-7. Difference between Mavs and jazz? Mavs are beating teams that are "better" than them as they try and claw their way in. Just glad the Fakies aren't doing anything to separate themselves at this point. If the Jazz can't keep them out hopefully the Mavs can. I REALLY don't want to see the Lakers in the playoffs and at this point I really don't care who takes them out. They are looking at one of the colossal fails of all time...and they aren't going to be any better with this roster next year either.
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