It all comes down to this...

Alright, I'm pretty bored of the fire Corbin talk (especially now that it is almost certainly moot, for better or worse Corbin will be the coach next year), and we have a super exciting playoff race between a rival on our hands to talk about, so lets talk about it!

As of today the race for 8th really comes down to only 2 teams, the Lakers win over the Mavs effectively eliminated them, knocking them 2 games back with only 7 games to play. The computers now put the odds of the Mavs making the playoffs about the same as Golden State missing them, less than 2%. The computers also put the odds between the Lakers and Jazz at almost exactly 50/50.

So it's Jazz v. Lakers in a 7 game series, but not against eachother, against 7 other teams, and the team that wins the most games gets into the playoffs, tie goes to the Jazz, winner gets a first round date with either the Thunder or Spurs. Here's the matchups....

G JAZZ - LAKERS
1 DEN - MEM
2 NOL - LAC
3 @GS - NOL
4 OKC - @POR
5 MIN - GS
6 @MIN - SAS
7 MEM - HOU

Remarkably similar schedules if you ask me, I can easily see this coming down to the last night of the season, April 17th, when both teams play other playoff teams at home.

Should be a lot of fun, especially with the Jazz playing the way they are right now.

For my part, I really hope the playoff standings and matchups stay exactly the way they are now. If we get in (and I know this sounds crazy) I really want the spurs rather than the Thunder, because I believe we could actually win some games against the Spurs. We have played them surprisingly tough this year, taking them to the wire twice in San Antonio and beating them at home.

On top of that you have Thunder v. Rockets, Nuggets v. Warriors, and Grizzlies v. Clippers...

Tell me that is not quite possibly the greatest first round in the history of the playoffs? It's got rivalries, sub-plots, a series that will have scores in the 120's most games and another that will have final scores in the 80's, huge drama potential...it's just awesome.

Agree, I want the Spurs too. I think the team can compete with a Spurs team minus Manu. He always killed us. If there is only two of those guys killing us then we can get some wins and even push it to 6 maybe even 7 games. If we get Kanter back, I'm going on record now that the series can go 7. Without him to use against Duncan, I think we dont fair as well.

Also yea, GREAT matchups in the West that way, man. Especially Clips/Griz again. That was great, and so evenly matched. Love Harden against OKC, whew. Be the first time in a long time I watch other series with interest.

As for our team now........ugh! Alot of fun Mag??? Alot of stress!! Someone as relentless as Kobe willing his teams to victory, against our team of "really try hard'ers".....very tough. Gonna need to keep u the offense, and hopefully Corbin doesn't do anything ELSE stupid.
Man I wish we had Kanter.

TheMagnus wrote:

For my part, I really hope the playoff standings and matchups stay exactly the way they are now. If we get in (and I know this sounds crazy) I really want the spurs rather than the Thunder, because I believe we could actually win some games against the Spurs. We have played them surprisingly tough this year, taking them to the wire twice in San Antonio and beating them at home.

On top of that you have Thunder v. Rockets, Nuggets v. Warriors, and Grizzlies v. Clippers...

Tell me that is not quite possibly the greatest first round in the history of the playoffs? It's got rivalries, sub-plots, a series that will have scores in the 120's most games and another that will have final scores in the 80's, huge drama potential...it's just awesome.

I said this in another thread (about wanting to play the Spurs). I do think we would fare better this year than last. If the starters keep playing with the same intensity that they have been, and if Foye stays hot.....anything can happen. And when I say anything can happen, I have no illusions that we will beat the Spurs in a series, but I believe that we can win 2 games in the series, and play them surprisingly tough throughout. I think it would be a totally different series than last year...and would kind of be the coming of age party for our guys. Kind of like in Rocky I when Rocky took Apollo to the limit. Apollo still won, but Rocky got attention and recognition and confidence and it put him on the map.

Yo Adrian!!!

TheMagnus wrote:

For my part, I really hope the playoff standings and matchups stay exactly the way they are now. If we get in (and I know this sounds crazy) I really want the spurs rather than the Thunder, because I believe we could actually win some games against the Spurs. We have played them surprisingly tough this year, taking them to the wire twice in San Antonio and beating them at home.

On top of that you have Thunder v. Rockets, Nuggets v. Warriors, and Grizzlies v. Clippers...

Tell me that is not quite possibly the greatest first round in the history of the playoffs? It's got rivalries, sub-plots, a series that will have scores in the 120's most games and another that will have final scores in the 80's, huge drama potential...it's just awesome.

I don't think we have a reasonable shot at beating OKC or the Spurs in the first round, but I do think we put up a better fight against the Spurs than last season.

In the playoffs last season, their plan was pretty simple. Pack the paint and take away the inside game. That won't work as well with the shooters we now have. Mo, Gordon, Marvin and Foye will make them pay if they play that same game plan again.

As far as who makes it in as the 8th seed Lakers or Jazz. Gordon Monson made a pretty good point the other day on the radio. You know what you are going to get from the Jazz, they will win most of their home games and lose most of their road games. We have more home games left, so thats a good sign for the Jazz chances.

The Lakers on the other had can win or lose to any team on the road or at home. If I had to put money on it I would bet the Jazz make the playoffs over the Lakers. We are on a good win streak right now. The D still sucks but we are playing lights out on offense.

I'd like to be pleasantly surprised by the Jazz but I have no faith that: 1) Foye will remain hot, 2) Marvin will hit outside shots or do much of anything, 3) Favors can stay out of foul trouble (making the Jazz undermanned in the post with Kanter out), 4) Mo won't revert to being average Mo or 5) sustain the high level of play we have seen over the short run of the last 5 games into the playoffs. The Jazz still have beaten only one team over 0.500 on the road all year. Think about that for a minute. Suddenly they are going to take one or two off SA or OKC in the playoffs? Not going to happen. Taking one game off either of those teams at home is pretty close to their ceiling IMO. Plus, we all know good playoff teams have a second gear on defense in April and the Jazz have struggled all season long and particularly the last half finding even first gear.

I have a hunch that the Lakers are beat up badly enough physically they will lose out by a hair, despite Kobe heroics. If Meta were playing, Kobe and Gasol even 80%, it would be over for the Jazz. The Lakers forgot to turn it on until too late and the Jazz remembered to turn it on just in time.

MTJazz wrote:

I'd like to be pleasantly surprised by the Jazz but I have no faith that: 1) Foye will remain hot, 2) Marvin will hit outside shots or do much of anything, 3) Favors can stay out of foul trouble (making the Jazz undermanned in the post with Kanter out), 4) Mo won't revert to being average Mo or 5) sustain the high level of play we have seen over the short run of the last 5 games into the playoffs. The Jazz still have beaten only one team over 0.500 on the road all year. Think about that for a minute. Suddenly they are going to take one or two off SA or OKC in the playoffs? Not going to happen. Taking one game off either of those teams at home is pretty close to their ceiling IMO. Plus, we all know good playoff teams have a second gear on defense in April and the Jazz have struggled all season long and particularly the last half finding even first gear.

I have a hunch that the Lakers are beat up badly enough physically they will lose out by a hair, despite Kobe heroics. If Meta were playing, Kobe and Gasol even 80%, it would be over for the Jazz. The Lakers forgot to turn it on until too late and the Jazz remembered to turn it on just in time.

Interestingly enough I only think the last 2 things you talked about really matter in the Jazz fortunes, and I would add a third, that Al Jefferson continues his aggressive play. Randy and Marvin making shots isn't that critical to the Jazz success, especially with Hayward picking up the slack, it's just a nice bonus when it happens. Favors foul trouble is certainly a concern, but he's been doing better the last few games and I think he understands that he needs to watch it because the Jazz need him on the court.

Really, I think this is going to be almost all about Al and Mo. They have been the two guys taking the most shots during this stretch, they are the two guys who control the pace and character of the offense. They are also the teams worst defenders. If Mo stats going all hero baller and his shots aren't falling, or if the ball starts sticking in Jeffersons hands early in the shot clock until he shoots a face-up jumper, the Jazz are doomed.

I do have some faith that the Jazz will continue to play well though. I think that since they have seen the "miracles" that occur when you play basketball the right way the players have bought in and they will regognize the problem if they regress back to old less effective ways and correct it.

At first glance, if I were going to make a prediction on the remaining games for these teams I'd say the Jazz go 3-4, the Lakers 4-3 .... however, who the hell knows which teams will be resting players at this point in the season, which makes it realy hard to predict outcomes. If teams already have their playoff position set, then those games become different animals. Sadly, the Jazz seem to perform worse against teams that are missing players, so I have a hard time seeing them winning more than 4 games, even if some of those teams aren't at full strength. At the very least, the next couple weeks won't be boring!

TheMagnus wrote:

Really, I think this is going to be almost all about Al and Mo.

Well, yes and no. Al played great but got no looks, the team went all jump shot and Al took 7 damn shots and made 11 while Mo reverted to "inconsistent Mo", Foye flat out sucked on both sides of the ball, also reverting to form. Marvin, bless him, played great. The team pretty much showed white underbelly at home, against the 3rd seed in the West. Playoff preview. We never know which team is going to show up but all season they have shown they aren't reliably tough. It is why they are fighting for the 8th seed. And we all know unless you hit the 8 spot on a hot run you are marginally above average NBA team.

MTJazz wrote:

TheMagnus wrote:

Really, I think this is going to be almost all about Al and Mo.

Well, yes and no. Al played great but got no looks, the team went all jump shot and Al took 7 damn shots and made 11 while Mo reverted to "inconsistent Mo", Foye flat out sucked on both sides of the ball, also reverting to form. Marvin, bless him, played great. The team pretty much showed white underbelly at home, against the 3rd seed in the West. Playoff preview. We never know which team is going to show up but all season they have shown they aren't reliably tough. It is why they are fighting for the 8th seed. And we all know unless you hit the 8 spot on a hot run you are marginally above average NBA team.

And there's Tyrone, running out Foye non-stop again, even though he is killing us. It's like I can see it on Tyrone's face: "Gosh derrnit! Man, Randy was hitting them the last game, why isn't he now? Is that hoop regulation....hey ref!! Check the hoop height! Yea....because I'm a head coach!! Yes I am!!......Man, I'm sure he'll hit the next one, yea, lemme just keep putting him out there......He sure can shoot sometimes. Yea, good call, you're the head coach, good call good call. Yea. Randy!! Lets go, you're back in!!!"

More Burks sure would have been nice tonight instead. Or hey, whoa, DC maybe? Since Denver was scoring at will (again) ?? But no. Lets just try to outscore a well coached and more offensively fluid team. Good call Tyrone. Keep leaning on Al and Foye!!

We can all see that Randy is best suited coming off the bench. The Clippers certainly could.....why can't Tyrone, hmm? Oh, right, I remember. He's a terrible coach.

Secondly, how come we never hear Ty yelling to get it inside to Al even? He freaking adores Al, but we never hear that from Tyrone! I mean come on already, do SOME coaching. Shit, even Jerry used to yell it and Stockton was always 5 steps ahead. But no, all he does is screw up his face like Cj Miles used to when he couldn't figure out where his man went.

Anyway, here we go, trying to make the playoffs. And looks like Tyrone has figured out he needs to shorten his bench up......in an absolute SHOCKER, he's now shortening it to all the wrong players.

Mutangclan wrote:

But no, all he does is screw up his face like Cj Miles used to when he couldn't figure out where his man went.

That my man, is a Money Quote! I might just add that to the "tool" bar on my signature. Priceless. The season so far.