Predictions: Paul Millsap

As Always, a word from Mr. Hollinger....

Quote :

PAUL MILLSAP, PF
Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
18.8 10.0 2.9 19.9
Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card




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Scouting report
+ Undersized, high-energy 4 who can score around basket or hit midrange jumpers.
+ Excellent rebounder with good hands and wide frame. Amazing knack for steals.
+ Size a problem defensively. Good passer. Moves well without ball into openings.

Analysis
Millsap might be the most underrated player in the league. I love this guy. He's not a prototype 4 because he's undersized, but he's athletic, skilled and just knows how to play. He beats smaller players on post-ups, takes bigger ones off the dribble and confounds both with his midrange jump shot.

Last season was his best yet -- he averaged better than a point every two minutes, ranked sixth among power forwards in player efficiency rating, and had he been in the Eastern Conference certainly would have made the All-Star Game. The key is how broad-based his skills are: Millsap was in the top half of power forwards in every category I track except fouls per minute. All of them.

He was in the top quarter of power forwards in rebounds and assists. He got to the line and made his freebies. He made 41.6 percent of his long 2s and 71.6 percent of his shots in the basket area. He didn't turn it over. While he lacks a single defining go-to move, he has such an assortment of options that he can score on nearly anybody; in particular, his ball skills have really improved.

And for an undersized 4, his defense sure doesn't seem to be a problem. He fouls a lot, and that keeps him off the court sometimes. However, the Jazz were once again better with him on the court than off it, while Synergy's stats rated him above the league average for power forwards.

And then there's this little nugget: Millsap averaged 2.25 steals per 40 minutes. To put that in perspective, no other frontcourt player averaged more than 2.0, and no small forward matched Millsap's total either. The top 11 players in steal rate last season were 10 guys 6-4 or shorter -- and Paul Millsap.

Like Mr. Hollinger, I have a bit of a man-crush on Paul Millsap, he's easily my favorite Jazz player.

We've talked a lot about him so I won't go into it too much, but I wanted to re-itterate what Hollinger said about the Jazz being better defensively when he is on the court. The statistics as well as the observed results are overwhelming on this point, unlike many other players [cough]Al Jefferson...Gordon Hayward...Devin Harris[/cough] Paul Millsap's impact on the Jazz team defense is even larger than his individual stats (which are pretty good). This past year the only players to have a real measuable postitive impact on the Team D were Favors and Millsap, the team was 3 points better defensively with Millsap on the court vs off, and 3.4 points better with Favors on the court vs off, which is even more impressive when you figure that these two rarely played together, and that nobody else on the entire team had even a 2 point improvement. Same story for Millsap last year, and the year before that, he just makes the Jazz better defensively, as a team, when he is out there. We know he has trouble matched up one-on-one in the post against 7 footers (like 90% of the rest of the PF's in the NBA), but that is pretty much his only weakness, and he more than makes up for it in other areas.

I think Hollingers predictions are low on a per minute basis, last season he averaged those numbers per 36 minutes.

Predicting for Millsap is actually no simple task, because every year he seems to come with some new facet to his game. This past year his FG% fell off (no more D-Will to feed him the ball when he makes his cuts for easy buckets, he's one of the best in the NBA at that), but his rebounding and steals took a big jump. So what will it be this year? Is he going to start shooting 3's on a regular basis? Is he going to start racking up assits? Who knows...but I think this will be a season when he kind of normalizes everything, meaning that all of his stats will trend towards his career averages.

Last season he played 33 minutes a game, I think this season that falls slightly to 32 minutes, and in that time he gets 16 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1 block while shooting 50/35/80. I guess my big guess is that I think Millsap will shoot a few more 3's this year, and that he'll hit a decent percentage of them.

Good post. And I know we have talked about millsap a lot bit that truely is his only defensive weakness. 7 footers that are either stronger than him or have a 7foot + touch away from the basket to shoot over him. Plenty of the 6 11+ PFs aren't stronger than millsap so him being shorter actually gives him more leverage to hold his ground so they can't back him into a 4 foot shot. And the ones that shoot over him... Well he just steals the ball from them if they try haha. But other than that he is BY FAR our most versatile defender and BY FAR our best team defender. I think favors will take the best team defender role from him once he learns how to play more team defense and understands when to help better because he just has the body, athleticism and natural instinc to be a top 3 post defender in the league. But I don't think he will ever be the perimeter defender that Paul is, if he developed that also he could be the best defender to ever play the game IMO.

But onto what the thread is actually about I think Paul gets 32.4 mins a game 14.6 pts 8.7 rebs 3.6 assists 2.1 steals .9 blks .524% FGs .317 threes .819 FTs. I think his assists and FG% take a huge jump assuming the consistent outside shooting is there this year and I think the points come down a tad because we will have more reliable options on offense this year. I just want to say again that i really don't want to lose this guy to free agency. He is the heart and soul of this team. If you kill the heart, the whole thing crumbles

If Millsap can play some SF consistently I believe he'll be invaluable for the Jazz. 14/8/1.5 blks and stls... don't know how well he'll do shooting the three and don't really care. If he's on the court with Jefferson and Favors the Jazz are a better team overall.
Hope the Jazz keep him!

I think Paul will still get 30 mins a game, even off the bench. He's going to again average 2 steals per, will grab 9 rebs and again16ppg. But with the personnel change I think it will bring back more of the shotblocking Paul we first saw, and he gets 1.5 per. Also this year I think his new wrinkle will be his passing, and that goes up to almost 3 a game. Change is going to equal more for the team, and with Paul coming off the bench, even though he has very similar stats, it'll be more impressive and quite possibly nab him the 6th man award.


By the way, sound familiar?
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/223736/Rivers_Wants_Jeff_Green_To_Be_A_Power_3_Uptempo_4

Millsap will come from the bench behind Favors/Jefferson... and won't be 6th man of the year... just MHO...

outerspacefan wrote:

Millsap will come from the bench behind Favors/Jefferson... and won't be 6th man of the year... just MHO...

If he has the exact same season as last year, and I think he will off the bench, then he absolutely gets it IMO. You think his stats will drop? I think he gets it, because like it says above, the Jazz are that much better with him on the floor, and it'll stay that way. He does some of everything, and makes it obvious he needs big minutes.
My arguments this whole time about Fav starting, had nothing to do with how great Paul is or is not. I still think he's a big time player, and probably the most underrated. Just so happens I think its best for the team, cohesively and matchup-wise if Fav starts with Al.

Another note, it goes on about the Jazz being better defensively with Paul on the court. I'm wondering what the predictions will be for how much better the Jazz are defensively with Fav on the court, and what it will be.

[quote="Mutangclan"]

outerspacefan wrote:

My arguments this whole time about Fav starting, had nothing to do with how great Paul is or is not. I still think he's a big time player, and probably the most underrated. Just so happens I think its best for the team, cohesively and matchup-wise if Fav starts with Al.

Couldn't agree more. I think folks are in for a big surprise with the Jazz rotations this year. Paul may well come off the bench but play as many or more minutes than Favors, sometimes with Favors and him on the floor at the same time. As we all know, the Jazz are effectively 12 deep, with 7 of those guys deserving starter minutes and 10 of total guys deserving solid minutes. Lets just assume that Kanter/Burks/Sap are pretty much always going to be anchoring the second unit with the other two guys a mix and match, depending on injuries, matchups and who is hot. That is a ridiculous second paint unit plus a 2-guard. Throw in a shooting and/or distributing PG and a scrappy 3 and that is probably the most well-rounded bench in the league. Its going to give other teams fits because they are going to outplay the other team's second units most nights and destroy them on a lot of nights. Ty's real test this year is not leadership, he already proved that where it counts, with the team. His real test piece will be using the ridiculous number of options he has at his disposal every night, getting everyone who needs minutes just enough.

I really like Millsap very, very much. He's that player/dude you just always want on your team.
That said, he really tends to have huge, long lapses when overused. A luxury coming off the bench, not enough to lead the team night in night out all season long. Sooner Jazz will have to decide if they pay to mantain such a luxury. I hope they do, after all I'm just a fan, it's not my money...

Millsap is really good and one of the hardest working guys on the team, that said, he won't get the Jazz to the next level and he is one of the most moveable pieces of the team. I predict he will be gone by the trade deadline and will continue to have a great career somewhere else.

...

Millsap averaged 14.8 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.6 ast, 1.3 stl, 1 blk, 1.8 TO, in 30.5 minutes a game on 49/33/75 shooting and has a PER of 20.1. He also started all season and wasn't traded.

Hollinger pretty much dead on again here, Alive with another solid prediction...

aliveandkickin wrote:

If Millsap can play some SF consistently I believe he'll be invaluable for the Jazz. 14/8/1.5 blks and stls... don't know how well he'll do shooting the three and don't really care. If he's on the court with Jefferson and Favors the Jazz are a better team overall.
Hope the Jazz keep him!

Thought I would try to move Millsap back to his own thread from the DC thread. Do we know that Millsap's problem is Kanter and Favors cutting in to his minutes? Maybe it isn't that at all. Perhaps he has the same frustration many of us fans have over Ty Corbins game and player management in general. Just sayin'.

Regardless, I hope we retain him. Magnus has me believing the arguments he made in favor of keeping Millsap over Jefferson.

Crunchtime1 wrote:

Thought I would try to move Millsap back to his own thread from the DC thread. Do we know that Millsap's problem is Kanter and Favors cutting in to his minutes? Maybe it isn't that at all. Perhaps he has the same frustration many of us fans have over Ty Corbins game and player management in general. Just sayin'.

Regardless, I hope we retain him. Magnus has me believing the arguments he made in favor of keeping Millsap over Jefferson.

I'm resigned to the fact that the answer may be neither, but much like AK, I will defend Millsaps honor as a Jazz man to my dying breath. I don't think he ever said anything controversial. He said he believed was a starter in the NBA and he's repeatedly said that any time he doesn't play it's hard for him, that's it. He also repeatedly said he would do whatever he was asked to do to help the team win. People want to say that's him not accepting his role or not being a good teammate are reading in things that I don't think he intended and he certainly never said.

TheMagnus wrote:

Crunchtime1 wrote:

Thought I would try to move Millsap back to his own thread from the DC thread. Do we know that Millsap's problem is Kanter and Favors cutting in to his minutes? Maybe it isn't that at all. Perhaps he has the same frustration many of us fans have over Ty Corbins game and player management in general. Just sayin'.

Regardless, I hope we retain him. Magnus has me believing the arguments he made in favor of keeping Millsap over Jefferson.

I'm resigned to the fact that the answer may be neither, but much like AK, I will defend Millsaps honor as a Jazz man to my dying breath. I don't think he ever said anything controversial. He said he believed was a starter in the NBA and he's repeatedly said that any time he doesn't play it's hard for him, that's it. He also repeatedly said he would do whatever he was asked to do to help the team win. People want to say that's him not accepting his role or not being a good teammate are reading in things that I don't think he intended and he certainly never said.

I love Millsap. Easily my favorite jazz player in the post Stockton and Malone era. I feel like he has probably been our best, most clutch and most consistent player over the last few years. I don't buy into this "he's undersized" bull crap. I think he is a work horse and tries to bring it every night. The dude has played through nagging injuries that would have sidelined Boozer for months.
If it comes down to a question of "do we re-sign Millsap or Jefferson", I say Millsap without even hesitating.

Having said that....I feel like it has been a tough year for him. Not even referring to performance. Maybe it was the free agency looming. Maybe it was any number of things. But it seemed he was.....I don't know....unhappy? for part of he year.

As much as I love Millsap, I feel as though the best course of action moving forward (for both the jazz AND for Millsap) is to part ways this summer. However, I wish him nothing but success. And if he should re-sign with Utah....I will be ok with that...i just hope TyCo can figure out how to best utilize our bigs.

Just read the exit interview with Paul Millsap and I didn't come away offended by anything. In fact, I was mildly encouraged for the chances of keeping him by these statements:

On the Jazz: "The organization took a chance on me. It turned out to be a good chance, you know, turned out to work on both ends, you know, so words can’t explain how, what that means to me, for the organization taking me in and doing what they did to care for me. And hopefully, you know, we have plenty more years together."

On the four bigs: "It worked out both ways. You know, for them, you know, it helped them have two guys ahead of them who can teach them and help them grow as basketball players and as persons. For us, you know, we had competition in practice everyday, so it helped us get better. So it worked out both ways…Those two gonna be pretty good. You know, they gon be real good in the future and for years to come, and working against them everyday, you know, getting better, not only helping them get better, but improving myself getting better against some of the top talent, you know, they’re talented guys. And so, you know, I appreciate the competition."

For some reason it seems we all have to be strongly polite when we talk about Millsap. everyone of us somewhere has started a phrase about him by saying things such "I love Paul, but......" or "I love Paul, and..."
That has to be because dude has earned our fine respect. I know I respect him and his time as a Jazzman.
But he's in no way a starting 4 for a team with high ambition. And his game is definitely is not worth 10 million per year. That would hurt the Jazz, not help them. That's the way I see it.

outerspacefan wrote:

For some reason it seems we all have to be strongly polite when we talk about Millsap. everyone of us somewhere has started a phrase about him by saying things such "I love Paul, but......" or "I love Paul, and..."
That has to be because dude has earned our fine respect. I know I respect him and his time as a Jazzman.
But he's in no way a starting 4 for a team with high ambition. And his game is definitely is not worth 10 million per year. That would hurt the Jazz, not help them. That's the way I see it.

I love Paul, and/but...

I think it's game over for him in Utah. No way is this organization going to shell out the kind of money he will command on the free market, especially long-term. Even if they were willing, they are not going to be able to sit down with Millie and convince him that, despite the $10 mill they are paying him per season, he will no longer be starting, and he will most likely not be closing games. The franchise has got to move on at some point into the Favors/Kanter era, so at least one of those guys has to start, and both NEED to be getting 30-35 mpg. I think it's more likely that we will see Al resigned than Millie, because then Al can start alongside Favors, and Kanter can spell them both. Yeah, the Kanter/Jefferson line-up will suck, but I think that's what we're going to get stuck with tolerating as Jazz fans.

If you want my personal ideal scenario, it's that we keep Millsap, let Al walk and have Millsap come off the bench. But that ain't gonna happen, so I will prevent myself from dreaming.

Hey, maybe the Jazz can just find another Millsap-like player to complete the three man big rotation? Any ideas?

thejazzkickazz wrote:

Hey, maybe the Jazz can just find another Millsap-like player to complete the three man big rotation? Any ideas?

Carl Landry has a player option for $4 million. I've always liked his game. Maybe offer him a couple years at $5 million. I think he would make a good third big.

zero24gravity wrote:

thejazzkickazz wrote:

Hey, maybe the Jazz can just find another Millsap-like player to complete the three man big rotation? Any ideas?

Carl Landry has a player option for $4 million. I've always liked his game. Maybe offer him a couple years at $5 million. I think he would make a good third big.

^ this.

He isn't sexy as a fantasy asset, all he does is rebound and score efficiently, but hey, as a Millsap-lite player who isn't good enough to expect to start for a really good team, but who will contribute in the 15-25 minutes/game you put him in...we could do worse. He seems to consistently outplay the second-team PFs he goes against.

Trollificus wrote:

zero24gravity wrote:

thejazzkickazz wrote:

Hey, maybe the Jazz can just find another Millsap-like player to complete the three man big rotation? Any ideas?

Carl Landry has a player option for $4 million. I've always liked his game. Maybe offer him a couple years at $5 million. I think he would make a good third big.

^ this.

He isn't sexy as a fantasy asset, all he does is rebound and score efficiently, but hey, as a Millsap-lite player who isn't good enough to expect to start for a really good team, but who will contribute in the 15-25 minutes/game you put him in...we could do worse. He seems to consistently outplay the second-team PFs he goes against.

I like Landry, too. Okay, let's wrap 'em up! This is easy! We're like the Jazz's front office dream team.

Then we'll grab Jarrett Jack in a serious poison pill front loader special. We'll package those two draft picks, along with a sign-and-trade (Millie?) for Trey Burke and another toss in player (a serviceable big) *boom*, PG problem solved. Remaining money goes to Foye and Kyle Korver. Resign Tinsley on the cheap, grab DC for whatever it takes and *boom*, we're done for the summer and it's drinks on me in Saint-Tropez!

Roster:

4s and 5s: Kanter, Favors, Landry, mystery player in Burke/Millsap trade

3s and 2s: Hayward, Marvin, Foye, Korver, DC, Burks, Murphy

1s: Jack, Burke, Tinsley

Yeah I like the Landry/Jack idea too. The Warriors are going to have roughly 58 million tied up in just five players: Bogut, Lee, Jefferson, Biedrins, and Curry, so we might be able to put the hurt on them with a front loaded offer to Landry and/or Jack. I don't know what the salary cap for next season is, but for last season it was 58 million dollars.

Crunchtime1 wrote:

Yeah I like the Landry/Jack idea too. The Warriors are going to have roughly 58 million tied up in just five players: Bogut, Lee, Jefferson, Biedrins, and Curry, so we might be able to put the hurt on them with a front loaded offer to Landry and/or Jack. I don't know what the salary cap for next season is, but for last season it was 58 million dollars.

Pull a portland on GSW hmmm. i like it..

Crunchtime1 wrote:

Yeah I like the Landry/Jack idea too. The Warriors are going to have roughly 58 million tied up in just five players: Bogut, Lee, Jefferson, Biedrins, and Curry, so we might be able to put the hurt on them with a front loaded offer to Landry and/or Jack. I don't know what the salary cap for next season is, but for last season it was 58 million dollars.

I'm not really a Jack fan. To me, he's just....meh.

The Voice of Reason wrote:

Crunchtime1 wrote:

Yeah I like the Landry/Jack idea too. The Warriors are going to have roughly 58 million tied up in just five players: Bogut, Lee, Jefferson, Biedrins, and Curry, so we might be able to put the hurt on them with a front loaded offer to Landry and/or Jack. I don't know what the salary cap for next season is, but for last season it was 58 million dollars.

I'm not really a Jack fan. To me, he's just....meh.

Sadly, our PG situation since DW left has been sub-meh.

Jack's very much like Landry, in terms of value: not great, but not expensive. Not a star, but productive, and would outplay most other teams' 2nd team guy.

He'd be a huuuuge upgrade.

I loved Millsap in his first year with the Jazz. Back in the Tribtalk days I tried to get a movement going for giving him the nickname of "The Millman" because he always grinded it out to give us what we were looking for. (That didn't catch on.)

I can't help but think Portland's move to steal Millsap from the Jazz really contributed to a Jazz downfall. To keep Millsap on our team which was already adversely affected by AK's max contract, we needed to match Portland's offer for Millsap in a very strange way. We had to overpay Millsap for his next year with the Jazz, then his salary would lower over the next few years. Millsap was elated that the Jazz brought him back. He got a big paycheck that was based more on potential than reality. But, that meant he would receive less from the Jazz year after year as the contract led it's course. Millsap became even more important for the Jazz while his salary decreased. THAT'S A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL POISON PILL. But, there was no way for the Jazz to keep Millsap unless they swallowed it.

A couple of years later, Millsap is no longer a tremendous monster that can come off the bench behind the starters of D-Will, Boozer, AK, and Memo, but-- he's a featured player who's salary is dropping year after year. He's now (a year ago) in a contract that pays him less than he made the year before, playing in a shortened season with him as one of the main players. He responded well, but, by then, the Jazz were already pretty screwed. This year was IT for Millsap and the Jazz. He either needed to lift the Jazz back up to true contenders in a year where his salary was less than what it was before, or, he needed to be traded to another team that could afford to pay him his worth.

The Jazz had already paid in advance, and were in no position to pay twice for the same commodity. It really sucks for the Jazz because Paul has been reduced to a commodity, as opposed to an amazing NBA player. The Jazz didn't deal Paul before the trade deadline, which may indicate they look at him as more than a commodity. I hope that's the case. But, frankly, I don't know what the Jazz should do (nor do I know what Millsap should do). He IS a great player, who owes his success to the Jazz in many ways. But, he's also a great player who may be able to achieve more with another team.