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 I like this kid for our second pick

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Richardale
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PostSubject: I like this kid for our second pick   Fri May 10, 2013 1:31 pm

Shane Larkin really came out of nowhere in terms of finding NBA radars. His individual jump ultimately led to team success, as Miami earned themselves a No. 2 seed in this year's NCAA tournament.

He averaged 14.5 points and 4.6 assists on 47.9 percent shooting and 40.6 percent from downtown as a sophomore, all major improvements from a season ago.

With the majority of his teammates graduating, Larkin chose to leave on his own terms. He decided to forgo his junior year and enter an NBA draft that offers a very crackable first round.

Larkin has generated some serious buzz over the past few months despite an under-six-foot label you'd initially think would weigh heavily on his stock.

Let's address that stock and analyze what's driving it forward and what's holding it back.



Physical Tools

There's no hiding the fact that Larkin is undersized in every way. He measured in at 5'11'', 162 pounds with an awfully limited 5'11'' wingspan. Though many refer to Michigan star Trey Burke as undersized, he's got an inch on Larkin vertically, an extra 20 pounds of muscle and six more inches to his wingspan (6'5'').

Length comes into play at the rim. Finishing around and over the trees is a lot easier for a guy with longer arms, especially when they're just 5'11'' tall.

Speed, quickness and balance is what drives Larkin's production. He's tough to stay in front of thanks to a first step that allows him to hit gaps and break down defenses.




High Ball Screens

The high ball screen is used a lot at the NBA level. And for a guard like Larkin, it can open up three scoring opportunities for either himself or a teammate.

Larkin's tight handle, combined with his quickness, becomes a dangerous offensive weapon off ball screens.



1. Pick-and-Roll/Pop

Larkin is a willing and timely passer out of the pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop. He knows when to make the pass and how to free up the screener.

Watch how Larkin manipulates both his defender and the screener's defender, baiting them into challenging him 23 feet from the rim, leaving the screener open under the hoop for an easy bucket.




2. Pull-up Over the Screen

The initial screen is meant to create space for the ball-handler. And point guards like Larkin who can shoot off the dribble are lethal with space in front of them.

Watch teammate Julian Gamble set the pick, then Larkin pull-up between both defenders and stick the three-pointer.


Larkin's ability to stop-and-pop from anywhere out to 26 feet away is what should carry him throughout his NBA career.



3. Hesitation Dribble Attack

Off the ball screen, Larkin has the stop-start quickness that can cause motion sickness. Both defenders have to instantaneously decide whether they want to fight through the pick, go under it or switch—and it's that instant where Larkin takes advantage.

With the hesitation dribble, he's got the ability to put his defender on his heels and then explode to the basket.


Larkin is a triple-threat coming off ball screens, which is what will appeal to teams looking for a half-court spark in the backcourt.



Shooting

Larkin saw his shooting accuracy improve dramatically over the past season, and it's helped erase some of his physical deficiencies.

A jump shot is essentially a counter to rim protection. If everyone could, they'd attack the basket and throw down a dunk or drop in a layup. But it's a lot easier for a guard like Larkin to score on a balanced jumper than it is for him to take an off-balanced shot on the move over seven-footers at the rim.

This past season, he increased his three-point percentage from 32.3 percent to 40.6 percent. It's made him more of a threat with the ball in his hands, not just off ball screens, but one-on-one with space to operate.

Watch Larkin use his crafty handle and quick feet help create separation before rising and firing with balance.




Weaknesses

Finishing at the rim will not be an easy task for Larkin at the next level. He's not an explosive leaper, and with short arms, easy buckets will be hard to come by.

As a point guard, Larkin registered a two-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio, but he still has work to do (as does every young point guard) running a half-court set.

And though he averaged two steals per game, he doesn't project as a defensive asset at the NBA level. He's just too small and too undersized for many of today's starters.



Draft Stock and NBA Outlook


Outside of Trey Burke and Michael Carter-Williams, there isn't an obvious answer for who the No. 3-ranked point guard is. Many project Larkin to be that guy as an option for teams drafting in the late first round.

There's no doubt he's going to impress during workouts and interviews. He's fundamentally equipped to excel at every drill thrown his way. Teams will also give Larkin points for his genes, considering his father is a Hall of Fame baseball player.

He'll likely start his career third on someone's depth chart, though his ability to generate offense could be used as a spark off a bench. Considering his size, Larkin's upside is fairly limited, but there are dozens of NBA teams in the market for a backup point guard, and Larkin fits that bill.

I'd say he's fair game anywhere from No. 20 on down, with the Utah Jazz a name to watch in that mid-to-late first round.

I like Francklin or Green as dark horses to play great ball. Could land Green with our second round pick Francklin most likely second over all pick.

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Richardale
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PostSubject: Re: I like this kid for our second pick   Fri May 10, 2013 9:14 pm

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/fullnbamockdraft-JeffGoodman

Kid is flying up the draft board.(Previous: 43)
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Trollificus
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PostSubject: Re: I like this kid for our second pick   Sat Jun 01, 2013 1:52 am

How does that "He's not an explosive leaper..." judgement jibe with this?? Maybe that 44-inch vertical was kind of a "quiet" or "subdued" 44-inch vertical or something not 'explosive'?

I mean, doesn't it seem more than a little inadequate to counter all this:

"He averaged 14.5 points and 4.6 assists on 47.9 percent shooting and
40.6 percent from downtown as a sophomore, all major improvements from a
season ago."

"
Larkin's tight handle, combined with his quickness, becomes a dangerous offensive weapon off ball screens"

"Speed, quickness and balance is what drives Larkin's production. He's
tough to stay in front of thanks to a first step that allows him to hit
gaps and break down defenses."

"
Larkin is a willing and timely passer out of the pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop."

"Larkin's ability to stop-and-pop from anywhere out to 26 feet away is what should carry him throughout his NBA career."

"He's fundamentally equipped to excel at every drill thrown his way.
Teams will also give Larkin points for his genes, considering his father
is a Hall of Fame baseball player."

...with a simple-minded, non-analytical, lazy dismissal like "...but he's too small"??

Talk about taking chances...you've got a kid with every single positive attribute (mental, physical and skillswise) and the only knock on him is some kind of conventional wisdom about his size? Confronted with a very similar dynamic back in 1984, the Jazz chose to ignore the "conventional wisdom" in favor of reality and the evidence of their senses (and some fortunately-compelling game film).

Not saying the Jazz FO is likely to find Stock's combination of skill, toughness, dedication and intensity any century soon, just that they need to be willing to throw "conventional wisdom"out the window. That's how you find value and it's one way a small-market, unsexy team can counter the innate advantages of larger-market teams.
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PostSubject: Re: I like this kid for our second pick   Sat Jun 01, 2013 11:38 am

You know who else had all the physical tools to be great, but his stock fell dramatically because he was "too small"?? Russel Wilson, now look at him. He is on his way to the football HOF. He is the best QB in football at avoiding pressure and buying time. He is the picture perfect quarterback in a 5'11 body. There is one difference between Larkin and Wilson though, Wilson has a great humble personality, I don't know about Larkins, Wilson came into the league as a natural leader, I mean he is probably the best vocal leader out of any rookie QB ever. He acts like a 12 HOF vet in the huddle. I don't think larkin has that kind of leadership, only because it's very very rare to get a rookie that is that calm collective and smart in pressure situations
sorry to rant on about a football player, but I saw a simalarity in draft stock and anytime I can talk about Wilson I will haha, and I'm a Vikings fan and shouldn't even like Seattle, but i can't help but like Wilson because he reminds me so much of one of our past greats. Mr. Fran Tark.
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PostSubject: Re: I like this kid for our second pick   Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:47 pm

Drive"N"Kick wrote:
You know who else had all the physical tools to be great, but his stock fell dramatically because he was "too small"?? Russel Wilson, now look at him. He is on his way to the football HOF. He is the best QB in football at avoiding pressure and buying time. He is the picture perfect quarterback in a 5'11 body. There is one difference between Larkin and Wilson though, Wilson has a great humble personality, I don't know about Larkins, Wilson came into the league as a natural leader, I mean he is probably the best vocal leader out of any rookie QB ever. He acts like a 12 HOF vet in the huddle. I don't think larkin has that kind of leadership, only because it's very very rare to get a rookie that is that calm collective and smart in pressure situations
sorry to rant on about a football player, but I saw a simalarity in draft stock and anytime I can talk about Wilson I will haha, and I'm a Vikings fan and shouldn't even like Seattle, but i can't help but like Wilson because he reminds me so much of one of our past greats. Mr. Fran Tark.

Oh yeah, I picked up Wilson in several fantasy leagues last year, I was a believer. I liked everything I heard about him, and the way he came on, not pressing, just proving himself, over and over, more and more until the whole team realized he was the real deal and he was gonna lead them to some wins. That said, he's not as big or fast as RGIII, plus RBIII is as accurate a passer as I have ever seen. Seriously. His recievers were freaking awful, because the stuff they were dropping was perfect.

As for Larkin, barring some character issues, what I am hearing is a guy who is, basically, too good for people to believe. After they get done praising his shooting, handle, and quickness (and passing and range and decision-making, etc), they always says something like "Not explosive", "Not strong" and always "too small to finish at the rim", etc. But when the facts come in, he IS strong, he IS explosive, he IS quick and he IS agile (direction change), per all the drills at the combine. Matter of fact, despite all the baseless disclaimers in the scouting reports, a couple of scouts said he was flat-out the best athlete at the combine.

The other thing that got my attention was the universal mention of and praise for, his "balance". Who the hell gets praised for that? Whose "balance" is so demonstrably superior that people notice?? Good question. Who also supposedly "can't finish at the rim", makes great decisions and is a great mid-range shooter?? Tony Freakin' Parker, that's who.

The more I read about this kid, the higher I am on him...not only from what they say about him and how they say it, but what they don't say as well. What they DON'T say is "out-of-control", "turnovers", "Poor shot selection", "ill-advised"...that kind of stuff.

Character?? Possibly the absence of mention is a good thing. He did take over the Miami team from a senior PG and led them to their best season in years, and it was HIS TEAM by the end of the year.

Barring some 2-for-1 move up draft trade where we get one of the more "sure thing" PGs, I think the Jazz might take him at 14. If he drops that far.
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PostSubject: Re: I like this kid for our second pick   Sat Jun 01, 2013 5:10 pm

Interview with Larkin. Bout as good as could be imagined. Professionalism, maturity and basketball IQ.

That said, the Shcroeder kid from Germany draws comparisons to "a Rondo who can shoot". And that ain't bad.
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PostSubject: Re: I like this kid for our second pick   Sat Jun 01, 2013 6:24 pm

Trollificus wrote:
Interview with Larkin. Bout as good as could be imagined. Professionalism, maturity and basketball IQ.

That said, the Shcroeder kid from Germany draws comparisons to "a Rondo who can shoot". And that ain't bad.

If we take Dennis at 14 do you pick up Larkin if still on board 21? Then we'll need a FA to come in at the 3 spot to help out?
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PostSubject: Re: I like this kid for our second pick   Sat Jun 01, 2013 8:34 pm

Richardale wrote:
Trollificus wrote:
Interview with Larkin. Bout as good as could be imagined. Professionalism, maturity and basketball IQ.

That said, the Shcroeder kid from Germany draws comparisons to "a Rondo who can shoot". And that ain't bad.

If we take Dennis at 14 do you pick up Larkin if still on board 21? Then we'll need a FA to come in at the 3 spot to help out?

Yes, I'm on record as ABSOLUTELY. Fill that hole, and fill it good. Get a big at 46 and FA.
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PostSubject: Re: I like this kid for our second pick   Sat Jun 01, 2013 8:46 pm

Richardale wrote:
Trollificus wrote:
Interview with Larkin. Bout as good as could be imagined. Professionalism, maturity and basketball IQ.

That said, the Shcroeder kid from Germany draws comparisons to "a Rondo who can shoot". And that ain't bad.

If we take Dennis at 14 do you pick up Larkin if still on board 21? Then we'll need a FA to come in at the 3 spot to help out?

I'm tempted to say YES!! But that's probably just because in researching these two kids, I've come away with the impression that they both have way more upside than most are giving them credit for. I'd LOVE to have both of them.

That said, in reality that won't happen. We'll take Schroeder if he's there, and then maybe Gobert" or some other big at 21.

With Marvin out, Hayward might have to play all-3, no 2, and he's good at the point forward position, and DC's an ideal backup ("No, I don't care when they're going to hatch. How many chickens was that? You made me lose count.")

The Jazz will have money to spend, hell, money they'll HAVE to spend, so FA acquisitions can be considered separately from draft strategy. This draft has some very good PGs and a LOT of 2nd and 3rd tier bigs, which the Jazz will need (Zeller, Plumlee, Olynyk, Adams).

*-Gobert has 7'8"+ wingspan and 9'7" standing reach (more than Eaton, for cryin' out loud)!! Now I know the recent examples of Whiteside and Thabeet argue against taking a raw player on the basis of measurements...but DAMN!!
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PostSubject: Re: I like this kid for our second pick   Sat Jun 01, 2013 9:01 pm

BTW, Gobert despite that freakish size, not only shows no signs of gigantism, I thought a head shot in one article was a picture of t.he writer. Not sure if that's good or bad.
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PostSubject: Re: I like this kid for our second pick   Sat Jun 01, 2013 9:09 pm

Thats my thing too Troll, both those PG's are showing more upside COMBINED with the same amount of skill the others in that range are showing. Jazz, take both!

Wasn't Johnny Flynn picked first in Minny, then Rubio? Just sayin....
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I like this kid for our second pick
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