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 Clips Ain't So Dumb

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Crunchtime1
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PostSubject: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Thu May 30, 2013 9:34 pm

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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Fri May 31, 2013 7:43 pm

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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Sun Jun 02, 2013 7:53 pm

I guarantee the Russian will pay him double what Stirling will offer.
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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Mon Jun 03, 2013 7:27 am

Trollificus wrote:
I guarantee the Russian will pay him double what Stirling will offer.

Good point. Sounds like Lionel Hollins name has entered the fray too. Memphis doesn't appear to want to renew his contract. I read one interesting article that said the new management of the Grizz (new for the 12-13 season) are heavy in to big data analytics and that Lionel Hollins has given them some pushback on some of their data driven conclusions. For example, big data said to dump Rudy Gay, that he was hurting the team more than helping it, but Lionel wanted to keep him.

The Rudy Gay trade debate continued with Magic and some of the ESPN analysts during the Spurs-Grizz series. The analysts concluded that dumping Gay helped Pau, Zebo and Conley's offensive games, especially Conley getting more offensive opportunities down the stretch of the regular season, but at least a couple of the guys argued that the Grizz really needed Gay's perimeter jump shot threat during that playoff series against the Spurs. I agree with the latter conclusion. With no Rudy Gay, and Tayshaun Prince only a shadow of his former self, the Spurs were able to zero in on Grizz leading scorer Zebo and shut him down. Big data needs to be careful about drawing too many conclusions from broad, regular season statistics.

At the time of the trade, however, the press reported that Rudy's oversize contract was the reason for the trade, so I guess it was a little bit of both --- the data showed that Rudy sometimes hurt the team more than he helped it and Rudy was arguably getting paid too much.
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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Mon Jun 03, 2013 8:29 am

Crunchtime1 wrote:
Trollificus wrote:
I guarantee the Russian will pay him double what Stirling will offer.

Good point. Sounds like Lionel Hollins name has entered the fray too. Memphis doesn't appear to want to renew his contract. I read one interesting article that said the new management of the Grizz (new for the 12-13 season) are heavy in to big data analytics and that Lionel Hollins has given them some pushback on some of their data driven conclusions. For example, big data said to dump Rudy Gay, that he was hurting the team more than helping it, but Lionel wanted to keep him.

The Rudy Gay trade debate continued with Magic and some of the ESPN analysts during the Spurs-Grizz series. The analysts concluded that dumping Gay helped Pau, Zebo and Conley's offensive games, especially Conley getting more offensive opportunities down the stretch of the regular season, but at least a couple of the guys argued that the Grizz really needed Gay's perimeter jump shot threat during that playoff series against the Spurs. I agree with the latter conclusion. With no Rudy Gay, and Tayshaun Prince only a shadow of his former self, the Spurs were able to zero in on Grizz leading scorer Zebo and shut him down. Big data needs to be careful about drawing too many conclusions from broad, regular season statistics.

At the time of the trade, however, the press reported that Rudy's oversize contract was the reason for the trade, so I guess it was a little bit of both --- the data showed that Rudy sometimes hurt the team more than he helped it and Rudy was arguably getting paid too much.

Yea, good post. I think the overall view was that their were much more on court and financial positives than negatives in that trade. And because of it, the Griz made it to the WCF. BUT, a smart team like the Spurs were able to look at them and say ok, now where do we need to concentrate our efforts? And they did it, smoking the Griz.
That team traded for Tayshaun, but he's never been a great perimeter shooter. All they needed was one decent one, and they just didn't have it. You can bet they'll find one, maybe even a Korver, and that team is scariER.
Funny, if Rudy was going, they really should have held onto OJ Mayo.
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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Mon Jun 03, 2013 10:09 am

Crunchtime1 wrote:
Trollificus wrote:
I guarantee the Russian will pay him double what Stirling will offer.

Good point. Sounds like Lionel Hollins name has entered the fray too. Memphis doesn't appear to want to renew his contract. I read one interesting article that said the new management of the Grizz (new for the 12-13 season) are heavy in to big data analytics and that Lionel Hollins has given them some pushback on some of their data driven conclusions. For example, big data said to dump Rudy Gay, that he was hurting the team more than helping it, but Lionel wanted to keep him.

The Rudy Gay trade debate continued with Magic and some of the ESPN analysts during the Spurs-Grizz series. The analysts concluded that dumping Gay helped Pau, Zebo and Conley's offensive games, especially Conley getting more offensive opportunities down the stretch of the regular season, but at least a couple of the guys argued that the Grizz really needed Gay's perimeter jump shot threat during that playoff series against the Spurs. I agree with the latter conclusion. With no Rudy Gay, and Tayshaun Prince only a shadow of his former self, the Spurs were able to zero in on Grizz leading scorer Zebo and shut him down. Big data needs to be careful about drawing too many conclusions from broad, regular season statistics.

At the time of the trade, however, the press reported that Rudy's oversize contract was the reason for the trade, so I guess it was a little bit of both --- the data showed that Rudy sometimes hurt the team more than he helped it and Rudy was arguably getting paid too much.

Did you just use "Rudy Gay's permiter jump shot" as a reason why the Grizzlies should have kept him?

As soon as the argument comes to that, just declare analytics the winner by KO, because that is a losing argument every time.

The Grizz absolutely killed that deal, they traded an albatross of a contract and got better as a team. I think the biggest problem they had this year is that had to play the Spurs, who match up better with them than any team in the NBA. They are a better team than the Pacers, and look what the Pacers are doing to the Heat.

I look at teams like the Grizz and the Pacers as the true feelgood stories of the NBA. These are teams without elite stars that compete with title contenders. I really think that if we are going to get back to near elite status, that is how we are going to do it.
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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Tue Jun 04, 2013 9:54 am

TheMagnus wrote:
The Grizz absolutely killed that deal

When the Grizz take the saved Rudy money and add another shooter going forward as Mutang suggests, then it can be a great trade imo, but I think the trade may have left them a little short in the playoffs against the Spurs this year. In addition, the Grizz got a little lucky making it to the WCF by virtue of injuries to Blake Griffin and Westbrook.

Thirty three year old, anemic looking Prince shot a pathetic 35.5/26.3 in the playoffs. It is hard to believe that 26 year old Rudy Gay, who is a lifetime 45/34 shooter, would not have helped more against the Spurs than Prince, unless Gay now has some permanent injury problems that is causing his shooting percentage to decline the last couple of years. The other pieces of the trade, Daye and Davis, got a bunch of DNPs in the playoffs. And the Grizz are stuck with Prince for two more seasons to the tune of 15 million total dollars. So though the Grizz did very well, it is not all good.

While I don't doubt that big data and yourself can make the case that Rudy wasn't a great fit for the team and he was overpaid, it seems that Lionel Hollins felt he wasn't finished coaching and improving Rudy and the Grizz. More from Lionel Hollins on the trade below:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/grizzlies-lionel-hollins-rudy-gay-trade-champagne-taste-192236854--nba.html


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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:01 pm

Crunchtime1 wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:
The Grizz absolutely killed that deal

When the Grizz take the saved Rudy money and add another shooter going forward as Mutang suggests, then it can be a good or great trade, but I think the trade left them a little short in the playoffs against the Spurs this year. And imo, the Grizz got lucky making it to the WCF by virtue of injuries to Blake Griffin and Westbrook.

Thirty three year old, anemic looking Prince shot a pathetic 35.5/26.3 in the playoffs. It is hard to believe that 26 year old Rudy Gay, who is a lifetime 45/34 shooter, would not have helped significantly more against the Spurs than Prince, unless Gay now has some permanent injury problems that is causing his shooting percentage to decline the last couple of years. The other pieces of the trade, Daye and Davis, got a bunch of DNPs in the playoffs. The Grizz are stuck with Prince for two more seasons to the tune of 15 million total dollars. So though the Grizz have done well, it is not all good.

More from Lionel Hollins on the trade below. While I suspect that big data and yourself can make the case that Rudy wasn't a great fit for the team and he is overpaid, it seems that Lionel Hollins felt he wasn't finished coaching and improving Rudy and the Grizz:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/grizzlies-lionel-hollins-rudy-gay-trade-champagne-taste-192236854--nba.html



Well that is when it's time for outside forces to step in and set the coach straight if you ask me. Of course he wasn't finnished, no coach ever is. But he had more time to craft that team than 9 out of 10 NBA coaches get these days. He had effectively the same roster for almost 4 full years, something almost unheard of todays NBA. Not to mention the fact, which you alluded to, that Gay has actually been getting worse for a couple years now.

Analytics has it's limits, Hollinger learned that lesson the hard way (or maybe he didn't, but he should have) with the Spurs a few years back, but if you are looking for examples where those limits are being tested this aint it.

If the Grizz didn't have enough without Rudy then they certainly wouldn't have had enough with him. His possessions didn't go to Prince, they went to the massively more efficient options of Conelly, Gasol, Z-Bo, and even Bayless. On top of that they were better as a team from the moment they traded Gay even though Prince never really did play all that well offensively. Gay was absolutely terrible this season, even after he was traded. But in spite of that, and the fact that he was quite litterally the least efficient scorer on the floor for most of his minutes, he still had the highest usage on the team.

It was abundantly obvious that the team was better off without him from the moment he was traded. But now that we look back on the Grizz getting swept by the Spurs we think our hindsight says that Gay would have somehow magically transformed into the player we thought he could be but never actually has been and the Grizzlies would have been better off for it?

Sorry, not buying it. Coach Hollins can act like he had it all figured out until the mean old front office came in and screwed it up with their fancy numbery things and spready-thingamadoos all woried about taxes and caps and such, but the results tell a different story, one that doesn't rely on floating hypotheticals and glasses clearly colored by personal affection.

I mean, in the simplest terms possible, the Grizz traded one of the absolute worst contracts in the NBA attatched to a league average veteran wing, for another league average veteran wing (with championship experience) + a young wing with decent potential + a really good young big man, got better as a result, and saved themselves almost $5 Million. Daye and Davis are both nice young players, Davis is probably the best player in the deal (reason #109 why the Raptors are terrible), and should have taken Arthurs place in the rotation this season. I just don't see how people can second guess that as something that wasn't a huge win for the Grizzlies front office.

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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Wed Jun 05, 2013 7:49 am

TheMagnus wrote:


If the Grizz didn't have enough without Rudy then they certainly wouldn't have had enough with him. His possessions didn't go to Prince, they went to the massively more efficient options of Conelly, Gasol, Z-Bo, and even Bayless. On top of that they were better as a team from the moment they traded Gay even though Prince never really did play all that well offensively. Gay was absolutely terrible this season, even after he was traded. But in spite of that, and the fact that he was quite litterally the least efficient scorer on the floor for most of his minutes, he still had the highest usage on the team.

Yea, definitely the case here. Sound familiar to any other teams situations??? highest usage.....team better without his scoring....better as a TEAM without him......oh yea, thanks for everything Al, but time to go.
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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Wed Jun 05, 2013 9:42 am

Mutangclan wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:


If the Grizz didn't have enough without Rudy then they certainly wouldn't have had enough with him. His possessions didn't go to Prince, they went to the massively more efficient options of Conelly, Gasol, Z-Bo, and even Bayless. On top of that they were better as a team from the moment they traded Gay even though Prince never really did play all that well offensively. Gay was absolutely terrible this season, even after he was traded. But in spite of that, and the fact that he was quite litterally the least efficient scorer on the floor for most of his minutes, he still had the highest usage on the team.

Yea, definitely the case here. Sound familiar to any other teams situations??? highest usage.....team better without his scoring....better as a TEAM without him......oh yea, thanks for everything Al, but time to go.

I actually thought immediately of Monta Ellis. At least Al doesn't turn the ball over. If you want to have a mediorce NBA offense just go ahead and build it around guys like Ellis, Gay, and Jefferson. Guys that are better individually when they are the focal point of the offense, but who's effenciency and iso-centric games basically guarantees that if they are in that role the best the team will ever be is midling.

The Jazz FO has gone on and on about improving the defensive play. first step to healing is cleaning out the infection, even if that means getting rid of some good stuff in the process. The biggest problem defensively on the roster last year was Al Jefferson, with Randy Foye and Mo Williams running a fairly distant 2nd and 3rd.
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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:10 am

TheMagnus wrote:
the Grizz traded one of the absolute worst contracts in the NBA attatched to a league average veteran wing, for another league average veteran wing (with championship experience).....

Come on Mags. You have made a lot of great points regarding Rudy and the Grizz, but this isn't one of them. The 33 year old skeleton named Prince, formerly known as champion, has a Hollinger PER ranking that is dropping like a rock. Here's where he is ranked for small forwards for the last four seasons, beginning with the season just completed: 41, 32, 17 and 10. Here is where 26 year old Rudy is ranked: 18, 10, 8 and 11. Seems like there is evidence to believe Rudy is an above average wing and Prince is a below average wing.

TheMagnus wrote:
They (possessions) went to the massively more efficient options of Conelly, Gasol, Z-Bo

Zebo became the Grizz leading scorer after Rudy left. The Spurs were able to zero on this "massively more efficient option" named Zebo and hold him to 30% shooting --- partly because the Grizz failed to pick up any perimeter guys in your "killer trade" to spread the floor.

That being said, I agree with you and others who say that building the team around Rudy and featuring him as the team's leading scorer was not working out best for the Grizz, and that it was a good idea from both a financial standpoint and overall team development standpoint to move Gay. Sadly, there are always way more guys in the NBA getting Rudy Gay type of money than are worth it.

In Gay's defense a bit, however, he hasn't always been a horribly inefficient jump shooter. His eFG% for jump shots from 82games.com for the last five seasons has been (does not include close in shots and dunks which have higher percentage): (.434 Tor,.404Mem), .429 .467 .446 and .449. I think Gay's name came up a lot during the Spurs series because it is not unreasonable to think that he might have got hot for a game or two, helped them spread the floor and win a couple of games as opposed to being swept. JMO.

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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:54 am

Crunchtime1 wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:
the Grizz traded one of the absolute worst contracts in the NBA attatched to a league average veteran wing, for another league average veteran wing (with championship experience).....

Come on Mags. You have made a lot of great points regarding Rudy and the Grizz, but this isn't one of them. The 33 year old skeleton named Prince, formerly known as champion, has a Hollinger PER ranking that is dropping like a rock. Here's where he is ranked for small forwards for the last four seasons, beginning with the season just completed: 41, 32, 17 and 10. Here is where 26 year old Rudy is ranked: 18, 10, 8 and 11. Seems like there is evidence to believe Rudy is an above average wing and Prince is a below average wing.

TheMagnus wrote:
They (possessions) went to the massively more efficient options of Conelly, Gasol, Z-Bo

Zebo became the Grizz leading scorer after Rudy left. The Spurs were able to zero on this "massively more efficient option" named Zebo and hold him to 30% shooting --- partly because the Grizz failed to pick up any perimeter guys in your "killer trade" to spread the floor.

That being said, I agree with you and others who say that building the team around Rudy and featuring him as the team's leading scorer was not working out best for the Grizz, and that it was a good idea from both a financial standpoint and overall team development standpoint to move Gay. Sadly, there are always way more guys in the NBA getting Rudy Gay type of money than are worth it.

In Gay's defense a bit, however, he hasn't always been a horribly inefficient jump shooter. His eFG% for jump shots from 82games.com for the last five seasons has been (does not include close in shots and dunks which have higher percentage): (.434 Tor,.404Mem), .429 .467 .446 and .449. I think Gay's name came up a lot during the Spurs series because it is not unreasonable to think that he might have got hot for a game or two, helped them spread the floor and win a couple of games as opposed to being swept. JMO.


You are falling into a classic fallacy that year after year makes idiot GMs pay guys like Gay and Monta Ellis 8 figure salaries, it's the same smoke and mirrors that made Alan Iverson a star. The only reason Gay's PER is so much higher than Prince is because his usage is so high, and PER rewards usage. Look at the WinScores, look at the TS%, and next time you are at 82games look at the on/off an the own/opp. As an overall player Prince is and was every bit as "good" as Gay.

Also those jump shooting numbers are not good for a guy that shoots as much as he does. His best number of .467 is ok, but Conelly, Pondexter, and Day were all better than that this season, and Bayless and Gasol were near .45. Besides, that was Gay at his best, two years ago, and an efficiency he has never even come close to before or since. Even at his post trade level of .43 he would have been the 6th or 7th most efficient jump shooter on the team. But I thank you for bringing it up because it really illustrates the two points I have been trying to make here...

First, that the Spurs (being one of the smartest and best coached teams in the league) would have done the exact same thing regardless of wether the Grizz had Gay or not, and the results probably would have been WORSE with Gay. They probably never would have beat the Thunder.

And second, regardless of whether we think they could have got more or different assets out of the trade that could have helped them more, the fact they traded a player with a terrible and potentially cippling contract for 3 players, two of them on rookie contracts, that did not make the team worse in any way and actually made it better in several areas, AND saved 10's of Millions of dollars, makes that a freaking great deal.
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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Fri Jun 07, 2013 12:08 pm

TheMagnus wrote:
First, that the Spurs (being one of the smartest and best coached teams in the league) would have done the exact same thing regardless of whether the Grizz had Gay or not, and the results probably would have been WORSE with Gay.

Hindsight is 20/20, but we know the Grizz got nothing from the new young guys in the playoffs --- they weren't ready to play; we know that Prince played poorly during the playoffs and we know the Spurs swept the Grizz. Given those three facts, it is hard to say that the Grizz "killed it on the trade". We also know that many analysts said the Grizz could have used another wing to spread the floor against the Spurs, and that Rudy Gaye, from time to time, has shown an ability to both create his own shot and spread the floor. I think the Grizz might have won a game or two with Rudy, but this is speculation that cannot be proven or disproven.

Regarding Rudy's contract, I have never argued that it was not a bad contract. Going forward from here, I don't doubt that Grizz management is glad to be rid of it and glad to be building around Conley, Gasol and Zebo.

I think we have pretty much beat this thing to death, so I am checking out on this discussion and you can have the last word Mags. Very Happy
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PostSubject: Clips close to acquiring Rivers and Garnett says Wojaronowski   Sat Jun 15, 2013 4:37 pm

This article says the Clips are pretty far along in discussions with the Celtics to acquire Rivers and Garnett and that they might close the deal in the next couple of days.  The Celtics would get back Jordan, a couple of first round picks and maybe Bledsoe.  Garnett, who has veto power over any trade, will only agree to the deal if Rivers is part of the deal, yet theoretically coaches can't be part of the deal.  Nonetheless, the parties appear to be working around that prohibition: "Rivers can't be part of a player transaction, but the inclusion of the draft picks – and perhaps Bledsoe – would allow Boston to free him of his contractual obligations."  

I didn't even know the NBA was open for trades right now.  I don't suppose San Antonio or Miami could make a trade right now, could they? 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--celtics-in-trade-talks-to-send-doc-rivers--kevin-garnett-to-clippers-201709995.html
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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Sat Jun 15, 2013 9:09 pm

Crunchtime1 wrote:
This article says the Clips are pretty far along in discussions with the Celtics to acquire Rivers and Garnett and that they might close the deal in the next couple of days.  The Celtics would get back Jordan, a couple of first round picks and maybe Bledsoe.  Garnett, who has veto power over any trade, will only agree to the deal if Rivers is part of the deal, yet theoretically coaches can't be part of the deal.  Nonetheless, the parties appear to be working around that prohibition: "Rivers can't be part of a player transaction, but the inclusion of the draft picks – and perhaps Bledsoe – would allow Boston to free him of his contractual obligations."  

I didn't even know the NBA was open for trades right now.  I don't suppose San Antonio or Miami could make a trade right now, could they? 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--celtics-in-trade-talks-to-send-doc-rivers--kevin-garnett-to-clippers-201709995.html


_______________________________________________________
Mutang:

Bledsoe to Boston??? When they have Rondo??? Hmmm, that really doesn't seem to make much sense. Unless they wanted to then flip Bledsoe......orrrrrrr Rondo avail? Thats more exciting. 
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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Sat Jun 15, 2013 9:35 pm

Mutangclan wrote:
Crunchtime1 wrote:
This article says the Clips are pretty far along in discussions with the Celtics to acquire Rivers and Garnett and that they might close the deal in the next couple of days.  The Celtics would get back Jordan, a couple of first round picks and maybe Bledsoe.  Garnett, who has veto power over any trade, will only agree to the deal if Rivers is part of the deal, yet theoretically coaches can't be part of the deal.  Nonetheless, the parties appear to be working around that prohibition: "Rivers can't be part of a player transaction, but the inclusion of the draft picks – and perhaps Bledsoe – would allow Boston to free him of his contractual obligations."  

I didn't even know the NBA was open for trades right now.  I don't suppose San Antonio or Miami could make a trade right now, could they? 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--celtics-in-trade-talks-to-send-doc-rivers--kevin-garnett-to-clippers-201709995.html


_______________________________________________________
Mutang:

Bledsoe to Boston??? When they have Rondo??? Hmmm, that really doesn't seem to make much sense. Unless they wanted to then flip Bledsoe......orrrrrrr Rondo avail? Thats more exciting. 


Crunchtime: 

Well now when a person clicks on my link, a person gets a new updated story from Woj saying that talks have stalled.
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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Sun Jun 16, 2013 7:11 am

Crunchtime1 wrote:
Mutangclan wrote:
Crunchtime1 wrote:
This article says the Clips are pretty far along in discussions with the Celtics to acquire Rivers and Garnett and that they might close the deal in the next couple of days.  The Celtics would get back Jordan, a couple of first round picks and maybe Bledsoe.  Garnett, who has veto power over any trade, will only agree to the deal if Rivers is part of the deal, yet theoretically coaches can't be part of the deal.  Nonetheless, the parties appear to be working around that prohibition: "Rivers can't be part of a player transaction, but the inclusion of the draft picks – and perhaps Bledsoe – would allow Boston to free him of his contractual obligations."  

I didn't even know the NBA was open for trades right now.  I don't suppose San Antonio or Miami could make a trade right now, could they? 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--celtics-in-trade-talks-to-send-doc-rivers--kevin-garnett-to-clippers-201709995.html


_______________________________________________________
Mutang:

Bledsoe to Boston??? When they have Rondo??? Hmmm, that really doesn't seem to make much sense. Unless they wanted to then flip Bledsoe......orrrrrrr Rondo avail? Thats more exciting. 


Crunchtime: 

Well now when a person clicks on my link, a person gets a new updated story from Woj saying that talks have stalled.

ESPN reported this morning that the Clippers aren't wanting to move Bledsoe in the Garnett trade, but are in talks with the Lakers to get Dwight Howard. Bledsoe and Blake Griffin are the other centerpieces to that deal.
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PostSubject: Re: Clips Ain't So Dumb   Sun Jun 16, 2013 8:05 am

My Yahoo link (Wojoranowski story) reported yesterday, rightly or wrongly, that the Laker/Clipper talks have already come and gone, with the Lakers flatly rejecting the idea.  Part of the reason given by "sources with direct knowledge of the talks" was how difficult it is for LA's premier franchise, the Lakers, to risk not only helping a competitor in the same conference and division, but in this case risk helping a competitor that plays in the exact same building/city.  Were Paul and Howard to enjoy more success as a result of the trade than the Lakers, the Laker franchise would never be able to live down the trade.  That being said, a core lineup of Gasol, Griffin, Kobe and Bledsoe is intriguing, and I am sure if that trade were being offered from an East Coast team rather than the Clips, the Lakers would have to seriously consider the trade.  Moreover, the Lakers run the risk of getting nothing for Howard if he were to bolt later this summer as an unrestricted free agent.
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