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TheMagnus
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PostSubject: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyMon Feb 04, 2013 11:27 am

Here's a quick snapshot of the players On/Off team efficiency, Own/Opp PER, and +/- both for the season and the last 10 games...
             
Player Own/Opp On/Off "+/-" "+/- L10"
Carroll 3.7 8.3 74 5
Millsap 6 0.1 -10 -5
Kanter 1.8 5.1 33 -5
Hayward 3.2 1.6 14 -33
Favors 2.9 -1.9 -41 -7
Jefferson 2.1 -4.5 -84 -30
Evans -0.7 1.1 -10 -18
Tinsley -6.2 8.9 57 -10
Ma.Williams -2.6 0.3 -30 -10
Foye -2 -6 -86 21
Mo.Williams -4.5 -6 -63 N/A
Burks -8.8 2.6 -5 -50
Watson -10.3 -5 -33 -1
Murphy -47.9 -68.2 -36 N/A

Some really interesting stuff here.

Demarre Carroll, He is either #1 or #2 in every one of these metrics, he is the only player to have a positive number in all 4 categories, as of right now he has the 4th highest PER and 2nd highest WS/48 on the team, he's performed well in almost every group he's played with, and yet he plays the 10th most minutes on the team. This is a travesty.

After directing a lot of criticism at Corbin for the way Foye was being used, Foye has turned things around in a big way from a +/- perspective, and no doubt he's been playing very very well. Here's the thing though, Foye's best combinations are with the second unit, and a big part of the reason his +/- has gone way up is that he's been playing more minutes with the second unit.

I had been wondering what the heck Corbin was doing with Watson and Tinsley, going with Watson for more minutes and in crunchtime, looking at these numbers it's a little easier to see why. Neither of them are effective in their own production, but while Tinsley was killing it as a facilitator at the beginning of the season Watson has been stepping it up recently and providing similar "hidden" value.

Al Jefferson...Al Jefferson. He's continuing the pattern that he has maintained throughout his career, winning his individual battles, filling up box scores, but seemingly not making his team any better when he's on the court. This is actually a little surprising to me because I thought Al had been playing pretty well, and consistently giving a better effort defensively, but still he's among the worst on the team in On/Off and +/-. It should also be noted that Jefferson opponents at C are posting an average PER of 19.4. That is the worst Opponent rating in the NBA for a starting C, and there are only about 10 starting NBA centers that have a PER that high or higher this season.

Point guards, interesting to note that the 4 worst Own/Opp scores on the team are the Jazz 4 PGs. Mo, Jamaal, Earl, and Alec have all been absolutely destroyed by opposing PG's. I'm beginning to think that the "hidden" value that they provide is little more than the luck of playing with 4 other players that can actually get the Job done. The most surprising there was Mo, he was getting absolutely destroyed by opposing PG's before he got hurt, giving up an average PER of 20. There are only 5 PG's in the entire NBA this season with a PER of 20 or better. I actually don't think this is entirely any of their fault, when you are playing 1 on 2 in the pick and roll (I'm looking at you Jefferson) you are not going ot be very effective, but there is no question that the play of our PG's and defending opposing PG's has been a MAJOR problem this season.


Last edited by TheMagnus on Mon Feb 04, 2013 1:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyMon Feb 04, 2013 12:00 pm

I don't have much to add to your analysis, so I just thought I'd say "thanks for the info". Very Happy
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Mutangclan
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyTue Feb 05, 2013 6:13 pm

I have some things to add here.

I went off last year when Corbin pulled DC and started Howard for the playoffs, touted him as starting next to either Hayward or Marv, and I've continued my "start DC" rants all year. I'm tired of ranting. He is exactly what this team needs, and what is missing when they get bogged down. Every team needs this type of player, and this is the main reason I am done with Corbin already. It makes ZERO sense for DC to be getting so few minutes, especially with the makeup of this team. Makes me sick.

On top of that, with DC getting so few minutes, ever since Hayward went out I've found myself not enjoying watching this team nearly as much. With those two out of the games, theres a stagnant air over the entire game. Its, man, almost boring. Burks is a bit of a spark. But I think those 3 are the main spark guys. The do little things guys that the crowd there has grown to appreciate, and this fan watches for.
This team looks robotic. Nothing created, no hustle really, save Paul every so often. No electricity...
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 10:43 am

Mutangclan wrote:
I have some things to add here.

I went off last year when Corbin pulled DC and started Howard for the playoffs, touted him as starting next to either Hayward or Marv, and I've continued my "start DC" rants all year. I'm tired of ranting. He is exactly what this team needs, and what is missing when they get bogged down. Every team needs this type of player, and this is the main reason I am done with Corbin already. It makes ZERO sense for DC to be getting so few minutes, especially with the makeup of this team. Makes me sick.

On top of that, with DC getting so few minutes, ever since Hayward went out I've found myself not enjoying watching this team nearly as much. With those two out of the games, theres a stagnant air over the entire game. Its, man, almost boring. Burks is a bit of a spark. But I think those 3 are the main spark guys. The do little things guys that the crowd there has grown to appreciate, and this fan watches for.
This team looks robotic. Nothing created, no hustle really, save Paul every so often. No electricity...

You'll get no argument from me on this, the underutillization of Demarre Carroll continues to be one of my personal sore spots with Corbin. Blows my mind that as short as we are on the wings right now he's sill not even averaging 20 minutes a game, and it's not like he hasn't been playing well either, he's been freaking killing it, shooting almost 70% from the field and contributing rebounds, assists and steals in every game.

I gotta stop thinking about it, makes me want Corbin fired, but I don't want Corbin fired...do I?
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 10:50 am

TheMagnus wrote:
Mutangclan wrote:
I have some things to add here.

I went off last year when Corbin pulled DC and started Howard for the playoffs, touted him as starting next to either Hayward or Marv, and I've continued my "start DC" rants all year. I'm tired of ranting. He is exactly what this team needs, and what is missing when they get bogged down. Every team needs this type of player, and this is the main reason I am done with Corbin already. It makes ZERO sense for DC to be getting so few minutes, especially with the makeup of this team. Makes me sick.

On top of that, with DC getting so few minutes, ever since Hayward went out I've found myself not enjoying watching this team nearly as much. With those two out of the games, theres a stagnant air over the entire game. Its, man, almost boring. Burks is a bit of a spark. But I think those 3 are the main spark guys. The do little things guys that the crowd there has grown to appreciate, and this fan watches for.
This team looks robotic. Nothing created, no hustle really, save Paul every so often. No electricity...

You'll get no argument from me on this, the underutillization of Demarre Carroll continues to be one of my personal sore spots with Corbin. Blows my mind that as short as we are on the wings right now he's sill not even averaging 20 minutes a game, and it's not like he hasn't been playing well either, he's been freaking killing it, shooting almost 70% from the field and contributing rebounds, assists and steals in every game.

I gotta stop thinking about it, makes me want Corbin fired, but I don't want Corbin fired...do I?

Hah.

Just saw this earlier on rotoworld and thought immediately of Corbin:

"Keith Smart said that he has decided he’s going with Isaiah Thomas and Jimmer Fredette as his two point guards, leaving Aaron Brooks out of the rotation. It’s shocking that it took a professional basketball coach this long to make this happen, and it’s unclear if Smart even knows the reasons for why he did it."

Corbin is now saying how great Burks and Foye are working together too. How is he not putting DC in at the starting two spot then?? I mean, how?
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 3:29 pm

Mutangclan wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:
Mutangclan wrote:
I have some things to add here.

I went off last year when Corbin pulled DC and started Howard for the playoffs, touted him as starting next to either Hayward or Marv, and I've continued my "start DC" rants all year. I'm tired of ranting. He is exactly what this team needs, and what is missing when they get bogged down. Every team needs this type of player, and this is the main reason I am done with Corbin already. It makes ZERO sense for DC to be getting so few minutes, especially with the makeup of this team. Makes me sick.

On top of that, with DC getting so few minutes, ever since Hayward went out I've found myself not enjoying watching this team nearly as much. With those two out of the games, theres a stagnant air over the entire game. Its, man, almost boring. Burks is a bit of a spark. But I think those 3 are the main spark guys. The do little things guys that the crowd there has grown to appreciate, and this fan watches for.
This team looks robotic. Nothing created, no hustle really, save Paul every so often. No electricity...

You'll get no argument from me on this, the underutillization of Demarre Carroll continues to be one of my personal sore spots with Corbin. Blows my mind that as short as we are on the wings right now he's sill not even averaging 20 minutes a game, and it's not like he hasn't been playing well either, he's been freaking killing it, shooting almost 70% from the field and contributing rebounds, assists and steals in every game.

I gotta stop thinking about it, makes me want Corbin fired, but I don't want Corbin fired...do I?

Hah.

Just saw this earlier on rotoworld and thought immediately of Corbin:

"Keith Smart said that he has decided he’s going with Isaiah Thomas and Jimmer Fredette as his two point guards, leaving Aaron Brooks out of the rotation. It’s shocking that it took a professional basketball coach this long to make this happen, and it’s unclear if Smart even knows the reasons for why he did it."

Corbin is now saying how great Burks and Foye are working together too. How is he not putting DC in at the starting two spot then?? I mean, how?

This anti-Corbin drumbeat is almost getting as tiresome as the Calgary anti-Hayward motif. Seriously, guys, do you really think that DeMarre Carroll is the answer? Yeah, I'd like to see him play more, too, but even if he did, what would it mean to the Jazz? It's not like he's an explosive offensive player who is going to score the big baskets in the clutch. He's a great hustler and a decent defender, but let's face it, he's not going to be a game changer in the fourth quarter.

The truth is, Corbin has an average team to work with. He doesn't have a viable NBA point guard, and that includes Mo Williams, and he's dealing with a team that is half not-ready-for-primetime, half free-agent-playing-for-a-big-contract-I'm-gonna-get-mine. This team, as it's currently constituted, is going nowhere, but Corbin is, very understandable, fighting to keep his job in the midst of it. I think it's mighty harsh to make sweeping judgement calls on Corbin just because he's only playing Demarre Carroll, a guy that the team picked up as a 12th man, 15-20 minutes a game. Is that what this has come to?

Seriously, I'm shocked that this team is several games over .500. I think they are overachieving. Yes, the bench is much better than average, but the starting line-up, no matter who you put in there, is weaker than any other playoff contending team in the West.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 4:06 pm

thejazzkickazz wrote:


This anti-Corbin drumbeat is almost getting as tiresome as the Calgary anti-Hayward motif. Seriously, guys, do you really think that DeMarre Carroll is the answer? Yeah, I'd like to see him play more, too, but even if he did, what would it mean to the Jazz? It's not like he's an explosive offensive player who is going to score the big baskets in the clutch. He's a great hustler and a decent defender, but let's face it, he's not going to be a game changer in the fourth quarter.

The truth is, Corbin has an average team to work with. He doesn't have a viable NBA point guard, and that includes Mo Williams, and he's dealing with a team that is half not-ready-for-primetime, half free-agent-playing-for-a-big-contract-I'm-gonna-get-mine. This team, as it's currently constituted, is going nowhere, but Corbin is, very understandable, fighting to keep his job in the midst of it. I think it's mighty harsh to make sweeping judgement calls on Corbin just because he's only playing Demarre Carroll, a guy that the team picked up as a 12th man, 15-20 minutes a game. Is that what this has come to?

Seriously, I'm shocked that this team is several games over .500. I think they are overachieving. Yes, the bench is much better than average, but the starting line-up, no matter who you put in there, is weaker than any other playoff contending team in the West.

Well, yes. That is what it has come to. Pretty negatively skewed view too Cal...I mean JKA.

This team is playing well, and has come really good players. This team isn't over-achieving, they're better than those below them, bottom line, and can compete with most teams. With a tweak like DC getting minutes, yea, it is a difference maker. DC holding Durant to 22pts vs 32pts is a big difference. Especially when he also hustled and got two extra possessions and 5 rebs. Who ever said we need an explosive guy to make the winning bucket or a game changer?? Al is a go to guy. And what we need is a defender, not a game changer in the 4th. If he plays more starter type minutes, we dont need big game changers. We're still in it, and competing from the beginning.

If Corbin is fighting to save his job, then he should play the guys that give him the best chance to win.

I'm not sure how you think adding a team player, hustler/defender/extra possession getting guy and removing a non-defender, non rebounder would not be a bonus to a team that is already in the playoffs?
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 6:23 pm

thejazzkickazz wrote:
Mutangclan wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:
Mutangclan wrote:
I have some things to add here.

I went off last year when Corbin pulled DC and started Howard for the playoffs, touted him as starting next to either Hayward or Marv, and I've continued my "start DC" rants all year. I'm tired of ranting. He is exactly what this team needs, and what is missing when they get bogged down. Every team needs this type of player, and this is the main reason I am done with Corbin already. It makes ZERO sense for DC to be getting so few minutes, especially with the makeup of this team. Makes me sick.

On top of that, with DC getting so few minutes, ever since Hayward went out I've found myself not enjoying watching this team nearly as much. With those two out of the games, theres a stagnant air over the entire game. Its, man, almost boring. Burks is a bit of a spark. But I think those 3 are the main spark guys. The do little things guys that the crowd there has grown to appreciate, and this fan watches for.
This team looks robotic. Nothing created, no hustle really, save Paul every so often. No electricity...

You'll get no argument from me on this, the underutillization of Demarre Carroll continues to be one of my personal sore spots with Corbin. Blows my mind that as short as we are on the wings right now he's sill not even averaging 20 minutes a game, and it's not like he hasn't been playing well either, he's been freaking killing it, shooting almost 70% from the field and contributing rebounds, assists and steals in every game.

I gotta stop thinking about it, makes me want Corbin fired, but I don't want Corbin fired...do I?

Hah.

Just saw this earlier on rotoworld and thought immediately of Corbin:

"Keith Smart said that he has decided he’s going with Isaiah Thomas and Jimmer Fredette as his two point guards, leaving Aaron Brooks out of the rotation. It’s shocking that it took a professional basketball coach this long to make this happen, and it’s unclear if Smart even knows the reasons for why he did it."

Corbin is now saying how great Burks and Foye are working together too. How is he not putting DC in at the starting two spot then?? I mean, how?

This anti-Corbin drumbeat is almost getting as tiresome as the Calgary anti-Hayward motif. Seriously, guys, do you really think that DeMarre Carroll is the answer? Yeah, I'd like to see him play more, too, but even if he did, what would it mean to the Jazz? It's not like he's an explosive offensive player who is going to score the big baskets in the clutch. He's a great hustler and a decent defender, but let's face it, he's not going to be a game changer in the fourth quarter.

The truth is, Corbin has an average team to work with. He doesn't have a viable NBA point guard, and that includes Mo Williams, and he's dealing with a team that is half not-ready-for-primetime, half free-agent-playing-for-a-big-contract-I'm-gonna-get-mine. This team, as it's currently constituted, is going nowhere, but Corbin is, very understandable, fighting to keep his job in the midst of it. I think it's mighty harsh to make sweeping judgement calls on Corbin just because he's only playing Demarre Carroll, a guy that the team picked up as a 12th man, 15-20 minutes a game. Is that what this has come to?

Seriously, I'm shocked that this team is several games over .500. I think they are overachieving. Yes, the bench is much better than average, but the starting line-up, no matter who you put in there, is weaker than any other playoff contending team in the West.

First off, I think if you find this kind of critical analysis tiring then maybe the problem is that you are just tired. As a person intimately familiar with the Calgary Chronicles I can assure you this is nothing like that, mostly because Calgary probably agrees with us on this one, but if you want to fulfill your own prophesy you are welcome to step in and continue to stubbornly declare that this entire roster isn't NBA material, the front office is crap, and you know you are right in the face of all evidence to the contrary.

The table I led off with was more than enough to make my point, but why not pile it on a bit? By my calculations DMC has been producing a win every 350 minutes of floor time, that's compared to one win for every 550 minutes for Foye, every 650 Minutes for Marvin and every 1000(ish) minutes for Burks. In other words, he's been nearly twice as effective as most of the players playing in front of him, and 3 times as effective as the guy who he often shares time with. This isn't a small sample size either, DMC has played over 700 minutes this season and has consistently performed at that level.

Furthermore, this is a continuation of a pattern that Corbin has established is part of his coaching mantra, playing veterans over young players viewed as "role players" regardless of who is actually performing and who isn't.

That's a well reasoned critique of a young coach, one that has merit both empirically and anecdotally, certainly as much as your sweeping "this roster just sucks and you are expecting too much from him" argument. My expectations were that this was a team that could win in the high 40's, maybe 50. Injuries have been a big reason for currently performing below that level, but the underwhelming performance of Marvin Williams and the over-reliance on Randy Foye are two more. There is simply no good reason that Randy Foye and Marvin Williams should be playing more minutes than Gordon Hayward and Demarre Carroll, not one.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 6:48 pm

First off, I'm just looking to stir things up a bit, I know bringing up Calgary as an analogy is akin to breaking Godwin's Law on this message board, so I abused it. Sorry.

As to the arguments at hand that DeMarre Carroll adds a ton to this team, and if given the opportunity to start, or get starters minutes and at least finish the game, I still remain skeptical, despite the fine statistical analysis that was provided to us at the beginning of this thread. One argument against the bench players getting more minutes, or starters minutes, over the current starters, is that the starters are playing against the opposing team starters, and that makes them look worse than they are, while the bench players are playing against the opposing team's bench players, and that makes them look better. Unfortunately, we don't have a hell of a lot of data to draw from to see whether or not the Jazz bench guys, including DC, would perform just as well as they have been if they were starting. I'm less inclined to believe that we would see an incredible improvement, as much as I like DC.

Look, I have never said that we have terrible players or a terrible team, in fact I hardly participate on this message board at all. But my take is that we are a fairly average team, good enough to make the playoffs and get a 7th/8th seed, but not much better than that. I would have predicted about 45-46 wins this season, had I have made a prediction. And that was with the expectation that Marvin would add a lot more to the team than he has thus far. He has been a disappointment, thus why we are talking about DC.

Anyway, I hope you guys are right. I hope this is a Tyrone Corbin problem. I hope Tyrone sees your light and starts starting DC, and that he really is worth more wins. I'd like nothing more than to see that. Meantime, I'm going to continue to be very understanding of Ty Corbin's predicament and not throw him under the bus just because the Jazz aren't heading towards 50 wins. If we don't see improvement by next year, assuming that the front office can put a quality team on the floor for the 2013-14 season given all their resources/capspace/draft picks, etc., then I will start really questioning Ty Corbin's abilities.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 7:00 pm

TheMagnus wrote:

First off, I think if you find this kind of critical analysis tiring then maybe the problem is that you are just tired. As a person intimately familiar with the Calgary Chronicles I can assure you this is nothing like that, mostly because Calgary probably agrees with us on this one, but if you want to fulfill your own prophesy you are welcome to step in and continue to stubbornly declare that this entire roster isn't NBA material, the front office is crap, and you know you are right in the face of all evidence to the contrary.

The table I led off with was more than enough to make my point, but why not pile it on a bit? By my calculations DMC has been producing a win every 350 minutes of floor time, that's compared to one win for every 550 minutes for Foye, every 650 Minutes for Marvin and every 1000(ish) minutes for Burks. In other words, he's been nearly twice as effective as most of the players playing in front of him, and 3 times as effective as the guy who he often shares time with. This isn't a small sample size either, DMC has played over 700 minutes this season and has consistently performed at that level.

Furthermore, this is a continuation of a pattern that Corbin has established is part of his coaching mantra, playing veterans over young players viewed as "role players" regardless of who is actually performing and who isn't.

That's a well reasoned critique of a young coach, one that has merit both empirically and anecdotally, certainly as much as your sweeping "this roster just sucks and you are expecting too much from him" argument. My expectations were that this was a team that could win in the high 40's, maybe 50. Injuries have been a big reason for currently performing below that level, but the underwhelming performance of Marvin Williams and the over-reliance on Randy Foye are two more. There is simply no good reason that Randy Foye and Marvin Williams should be playing more minutes than Gordon Hayward and Demarre Carroll, not one.

Don't worry Magus, Carroll will prove you right..... next season..... on a different team. If I was him, I wouldn't stick around on a team where my hard work and strong play was met with less PT and opportunities.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 8:38 pm

thejazzkickazz wrote:


Look, I have never said that we have terrible players or a terrible team, in fact I hardly participate on this message board at all. But my take is that we are a fairly average team, good enough to make the playoffs and get a 7th/8th seed, but not much better than that. I would have predicted about 45-46 wins this season, had I have made a prediction. And that was with the expectation that Marvin would add a lot more to the team than he has thus far. He has been a disappointment, thus why we are talking about DC.

Well put, don't take anything on this board personally, you always have good input. I disagree with you on one point, however. With stellar coaching this team could easily be a 50 win team. Unfortunately, Corbin is proving to be average at best, and a player developer, not so much. As a Jazz fan dyed in Layden and Sloan blood, I just pretty much came to expect that every Jazz coach would be above average, that was the plan with respect to being a small market team, our one and singular reason for remaining relevant in the post-Stockton/Malone era. I'm sure Corbin could coach plenty of teams, and with better talent look like a good one. But, the Jazz need a better-than-maybe average coach, thus the disappointment. DC is one very obvious weird/bad player management issue. Kanter is the other one.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 8:47 pm

thejazzkickazz wrote:
One argument against the bench players getting more minutes, or starters minutes, over the current starters, is that the starters are playing against the opposing team starters, and that makes them look worse than they are, while the bench players are playing against the opposing team's bench players, and that makes them look better. Unfortunately, we don't have a hell of a lot of data to draw from to see whether or not the Jazz bench guys, including DC, would perform just as well as they have been if they were starting. I'm less inclined to believe that we would see an incredible improvement, as much as I like DC.

Except for the fact that last year, once DC was starting, against other starters, due to injury, the Jazz went on that fantastic run to make it into the playoffs. And he was a HUGE part of it, and was why he was resigned.

** As I type this Burks/Fav/DC/Paul/UnderKanter bring the Jazz back from a big early lead against the Bucks.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 9:10 pm

Quote :
As I type this Burks/Fav/DC/Paul/UnderKanter bring the Jazz back from a big early lead against the Bucks.

It is impossible to argue against this not being the Jazz's best line-up based on what has happened during the first half of the game.

The starters looked listless. I swear, Marvin Williams has no gas in the tank. What can be wrong with him? Kanter is easily outplaying AJ. Look at the +/- stats so far. Carroll, Burks, Kanter are at +15, Favors is at +11 and Millsap is the only starter on the plus side, with +7.

But let's give Ty credit here, he identified that Carroll and Burks were bringing the energy and left them in the game.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 9:16 pm

thejazzkickazz wrote:
First off, I'm just looking to stir things up a bit, I know bringing up Calgary as an analogy is akin to breaking Godwin's Law on this message board, so I abused it. Sorry.

As to the arguments at hand that DeMarre Carroll adds a ton to this team, and if given the opportunity to start, or get starters minutes and at least finish the game, I still remain skeptical, despite the fine statistical analysis that was provided to us at the beginning of this thread. One argument against the bench players getting more minutes, or starters minutes, over the current starters, is that the starters are playing against the opposing team starters, and that makes them look worse than they are, while the bench players are playing against the opposing team's bench players, and that makes them look better. Unfortunately, we don't have a hell of a lot of data to draw from to see whether or not the Jazz bench guys, including DC, would perform just as well as they have been if they were starting. I'm less inclined to believe that we would see an incredible improvement, as much as I like DC.

Look, I have never said that we have terrible players or a terrible team, in fact I hardly participate on this message board at all. But my take is that we are a fairly average team, good enough to make the playoffs and get a 7th/8th seed, but not much better than that. I would have predicted about 45-46 wins this season, had I have made a prediction. And that was with the expectation that Marvin would add a lot more to the team than he has thus far. He has been a disappointment, thus why we are talking about DC.

Anyway, I hope you guys are right. I hope this is a Tyrone Corbin problem. I hope Tyrone sees your light and starts starting DC, and that he really is worth more wins. I'd like nothing more than to see that. Meantime, I'm going to continue to be very understanding of Ty Corbin's predicament and not throw him under the bus just because the Jazz aren't heading towards 50 wins. If we don't see improvement by next year, assuming that the front office can put a quality team on the floor for the 2013-14 season given all their resources/capspace/draft picks, etc., then I will start really questioning Ty Corbin's abilities.

Solid post. In my defense, I said that I didn't want Corbin fired.

We do have some data. Demarre has started in 7 games, in those games he produced almost identical numbers to what he did as a reserve. In those starts he played 69 minutes with Tinsley, Foye, Millsap, and Jefferson and that unit was +5 in those minutes. You replace him with Marvin (the standard starters) and that unit has played 355 minutes and is -7 in those minutes.

That's hardly conclusive, but it's just another data point to support the theory.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 9:19 pm

thejazzkickazz wrote:
Quote :
As I type this Burks/Fav/DC/Paul/UnderKanter bring the Jazz back from a big early lead against the Bucks.

It is impossible to argue against this not being the Jazz's best line-up based on what has happened during the first half of the game.

The starters looked listless. I swear, Marvin Williams has no gas in the tank. What can be wrong with him? Kanter is easily outplaying AJ. Look at the +/- stats so far. Carroll, Burks, Kanter are at +15, Favors is at +11 and Millsap is the only starter on the plus side, with +7.

But let's give Ty credit here, he identified that Carroll and Burks were bringing the energy and left them in the game.

Marvin has been battling a knee injury all season, I thought he had been looking better the last couple of games, but maybe it's flaring up again.

I also liked Corbin's rotations in the first half. Kanter and Favors do a much better job of protecting the paint than Millsap and Jefferson, but they can't match Millsap and Jeffersons offensive production. I liked seeing Millsap at the 3 again too, thought that was a nice call.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 10:21 pm

This game did not look like a Corbin coached game at all.....and it also looked glorious.

Marv 21 mins, Foye 28mins and DC......33 BIG minutes. And the Jazz looked like a tough, fighting, scrapping, lay up getting team. I will be a broken record, DC type of play is contagious!!

Hopefully this is the start of something with Corbin, and his rotations. He seemed to let the guys go a bit (UnderKanter???) and stayed with the ones who were getting it done.
I like Foye so much more with DC out there. His flaws defensively are made up with DC strengths. With DC crashing it also helps open things up for Foye outside too.

I liked that game. IMO, maybe the best coached game Ty's had, and right as I'm warming up the oven.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyWed Feb 06, 2013 10:24 pm

Loved how Corbin rode Burks and Carroll all the way through to the end, thought they both deserved that.


Ridiculous line form Kanter tonight, 17 pts, 9 reb, 5 blocks and 2 assists in 17 minutes...that's just silly good.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyThu Feb 07, 2013 10:23 am

Mutangclan wrote:
This game did not look like a Corbin coached game at all.....and it also looked glorious.

Marv 21 mins, Foye 28mins and DC......33 BIG minutes. And the Jazz looked like a tough, fighting, scrapping, lay up getting team. I will be a broken record, DC type of play is contagious!!

Hopefully this is the start of something with Corbin, and his rotations. He seemed to let the guys go a bit (UnderKanter???) and stayed with the ones who were getting it done.
I like Foye so much more with DC out there. His flaws defensively are made up with DC strengths. With DC crashing it also helps open things up for Foye outside too.

I liked that game. IMO, maybe the best coached game Ty's had, and right as I'm warming up the oven.

I posted my rant in the GTS thread, but just to recap.... Ty was horrible in his front line rotations. Favors & Kanter were BEASTS out there, and got a COMBINED 39 minutes. Horrible, just horrible.

You mentioned that they were "tough, fighting, scrapping". Do you think that the two young bigs are going to continue playing that way if they know it doesn't come with the reward of any extra run? I know it's their jobs to do it every night regarless of the situation, but it has to be demoralizing to get in there, play so hard & so well, and get nothing back from the coach when it comes to floor time.

DC's minutes were better, but just to play devil's advocate ... Foye had 5 fouls. I bet DC gets less PT if that isn't the case.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyThu Feb 07, 2013 10:55 am

zero24gravity wrote:
Mutangclan wrote:
This game did not look like a Corbin coached game at all.....and it also looked glorious.

Marv 21 mins, Foye 28mins and DC......33 BIG minutes. And the Jazz looked like a tough, fighting, scrapping, lay up getting team. I will be a broken record, DC type of play is contagious!!

Hopefully this is the start of something with Corbin, and his rotations. He seemed to let the guys go a bit (UnderKanter???) and stayed with the ones who were getting it done.
I like Foye so much more with DC out there. His flaws defensively are made up with DC strengths. With DC crashing it also helps open things up for Foye outside too.

I liked that game. IMO, maybe the best coached game Ty's had, and right as I'm warming up the oven.

I posted my rant in the GTS thread, but just to recap.... Ty was horrible in his front line rotations. Favors & Kanter were BEASTS out there, and got a COMBINED 39 minutes. Horrible, just horrible.

You mentioned that they were "tough, fighting, scrapping". Do you think that the two young bigs are going to continue playing that way if they know it doesn't come with the reward of any extra run? I know it's their jobs to do it every night regarless of the situation, but it has to be demoralizing to get in there, play so hard & so well, and get nothing back from the coach when it comes to floor time.

DC's minutes were better, but just to play devil's advocate ... Foye had 5 fouls. I bet DC gets less PT if that isn't the case.

Yea but Zero, look at Al and Pauls lines. They weren't just good, they were GREAT lines.

As for Kanter, it is well documented that he's my boy, but he has not been doing this consistently as of late. He just hasn't. He got away from rebounding the ball well. If he had been playing well for all this time, then yea sure. He needs to put together a bunch of good games. But he's still behind Paul and Al, who are consistently. Would you say that Kanter has shown and earned more minutes? Or is it every so often?? I'd say every so often at this point.
As for Favors, he looked good too. But he had 4 turnovers, and they weren't too pretty.
More than anything though, Al and Paul were great last night, great. And they've been alot more consistent than Fav and Kanter have been. Not to mention, sadly, if Al or Paul actually are getting moved, then they need to look as great as possible.

To answer your question, yea I do think Kanter and Favors are still going to play that way, and try to get better every night. They both are well aware that their time is coming. Not maybe, they know their time is coming. And its up to them how soon. Also, I'm not sure, but its not like overall their minutes are dropping. I think they're going up.

I think you're right about DC's minutes due to Foyes fouls. And that sucks. But I also think DC showed how much of an asset he is last night, in everything he did. Im' wondering if maybe a lightbulb has FINALLY gone off in Corbins head about hey, wow, that DC guy does alot for this team. Mainly I wonder that because Corbins mentioned a few times now how Burks and Foye play so well together. So here's the hope that DC is moved into that starting 5. Although I'm changing my tune a bit, Id rather have him in there for Marv, especially with Mo out. Keep Foyes shooting and avg PG skills out there too.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyThu Feb 07, 2013 12:03 pm

Mutangclan wrote:

Yea but Zero, look at Al and Pauls lines. They weren't just good, they were GREAT lines.

As for Kanter, it is well documented that he's my boy, but he has not been doing this consistently as of late. He just hasn't. He got away from rebounding the ball well. If he had been playing well for all this time, then yea sure. He needs to put together a bunch of good games. But he's still behind Paul and Al, who are consistently. Would you say that Kanter has shown and earned more minutes? Or is it every so often?? I'd say every so often at this point.
As for Favors, he looked good too. But he had 4 turnovers, and they weren't too pretty.
More than anything though, Al and Paul were great last night, great. And they've been alot more consistent than Fav and Kanter have been. Not to mention, sadly, if Al or Paul actually are getting moved, then they need to look as great as possible.

To answer your question, yea I do think Kanter and Favors are still going to play that way, and try to get better every night. They both are well aware that their time is coming. Not maybe, they know their time is coming. And its up to them how soon. Also, I'm not sure, but its not like overall their minutes are dropping. I think they're going up.

I think you're right about DC's minutes due to Foyes fouls. And that sucks. But I also think DC showed how much of an asset he is last night, in everything he did. Im' wondering if maybe a lightbulb has FINALLY gone off in Corbins head about hey, wow, that DC guy does alot for this team. Mainly I wonder that because Corbins mentioned a few times now how Burks and Foye play so well together. So here's the hope that DC is moved into that starting 5. Although I'm changing my tune a bit, Id rather have him in there for Marv, especially with Mo out. Keep Foyes shooting and avg PG skills out there too.

No doubt that (after the first quarter) Al & Paul also played well.

I just feel that this was the perfect opportunity to "rest the starters" and get the young guys, who were performing as good, if not better than the starters a chance for a full-game of work.

You asked if Enes has earned more minutes nightly... I say, "nope", but apparently when he does earn them (and he more than earned them last night), he still isn't going to get them.

Just to argue your comment, "Also, I'm not sure, but its not like overall their minutes are dropping. I think they're going up." ....

Enes has played less than 10 minutes in 5 of the last 13 games (and only 11 minutes in 3 of those games). This season he is averaging barely 1 minute more than his rookie year. Last night he logged only 3 more minutes than his season average, despite having, what I would consider, a career night.

Derrick on the other hand has had his minutes stay steady, but they are almost identical from last year & only a minute over his career average. So minutes are not increasing with Favors either.

Al & Millsap are definitley more proven, but I'm not so sure you can call them more consistant. Those two are the two best players & 2/5 of the starting unit that is terrible on almost a nightly basis at the beginning of games. So to just give them a pass on their "inconsistancy" and allow them to play out of it, is an unfair precident to set on the team. Paul & Al got a second chance last night, after starting yet another game like crap. The two young bigs aren't alotted the chance to even continue a great game, let alone get a second chance on an off night.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyThu Feb 07, 2013 12:30 pm

zero24gravity wrote:

No doubt that (after the first quarter) Al & Paul also played well.

I just feel that this was the perfect opportunity to "rest the starters" and get the young guys, who were performing as good, if not better than the starters a chance for a full-game of work.

You asked if Enes has earned more minutes nightly... I say, "nope", but apparently when he does earn them (and he more than earned them last night), he still isn't going to get them.

Just to argue your comment, "Also, I'm not sure, but its not like overall their minutes are dropping. I think they're going up." ....

Enes has played less than 10 minutes in 5 of the last 13 games (and only 11 minutes in 3 of those games). This season he is averaging barely 1 minute more than his rookie year. Last night he logged only 3 more minutes than his season average, despite having, what I would consider, a career night.

Derrick on the other hand has had his minutes stay steady, but they are almost identical from last year & only a minute over his career average. So minutes are not increasing with Favors either.

Al & Millsap are definitley more proven, but I'm not so sure you can call them more consistant. Those two are the two best players & 2/5 of the starting unit that is terrible on almost a nightly basis at the beginning of games. So to just give them a pass on their "inconsistancy" and allow them to play out of it, is an unfair precident to set on the team. Paul & Al got a second chance last night, after starting yet another game like crap. The two young bigs aren't alotted the chance to even continue a great game, let alone get a second chance on an off night.

Well our starters aren't old, they dont need any rest. They need to get better too, figuring out how to play without Mo, with Burks etc.

I think it's all about priorities right now. And number 1, its making sure this team is and will be as good as it can be. And number 1a, is that to accomplish that, Al or Paul is going to be moved. And to get the most out of Al or Paul, they need to look like all stars, or as close as can be. They're not going to look like that if they are sitting on the bench.

As for Enes, you can't just earn minutes one night and get them handed to you, when the previous night you didn't. He's got to be more consistent to get those minutes, when he's playing behind Al and Paul. And you're right, Enes had a career night. And I'd bet the first thing the coaches said to him were something along the lines of "great job Enes, really great, we know you have that in you. Now lets see it next game too!"

I definitely disagree here. Al/Paul vs Fav/Kanter are light years ahead of the young guys for being consistant. As they should be. And Al and Paul have been doing it along longer than our 2nd and 3rd year players. If a trade were not to happen, Fav and Kanter need to be beating up Al and Paul in practice and winning, and then in games they need to make it obvious who is the choice. They haven't done that yet.

But, I think this is an entirely different argument if this was after the trade deadline. Then it's a whole new ball game, and let the young horses run.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyThu Feb 07, 2013 12:44 pm

Mutangclan wrote:

I definitely disagree here. Al/Paul vs Fav/Kanter are light years ahead of the young guys for being consistant. As they should be. And Al and Paul have been doing it along longer than our 2nd and 3rd year players. If a trade were not to happen, Fav and Kanter need to be beating up Al and Paul in practice and winning, and then in games they need to make it obvious who is the choice. They haven't done that yet.

But, I think this is an entirely different argument if this was after the trade deadline. Then it's a whole new ball game, and let the young horses run.

I was more referring to in-game consistency than career consistancy, which Paul, Al & the rest of the starters have been anything but. They start every game like they are running in mud, then come around & play better after the bench bails them out & gets back into the game. It happens more nights than not.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyThu Feb 07, 2013 2:05 pm

zero24gravity wrote:

I was more referring to in-game consistency than career consistency, which Paul, Al & the rest of the starters have been anything but. They start every game like they are running in mud, then come around & play better after the bench bails them out & gets back into the game. It happens more nights than not.

Zero!!! I agree. Hah. They have.

But I think it's very much reflective of the Foye/Marv scenario, combined with slow plodding Al and Tinsely. DC makes up for alot of that in my opinion. I'd bet that we have much better starts from our starting 5 if DC is planted in there and Marv is removed. Its a whole balance thing IMO, and crazy ass DC makes others jobs easier, and more importantly compliments them.
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PostSubject: Re: Who's Winning?   Who's Winning? EmptyThu Feb 07, 2013 2:14 pm

Mutangclan wrote:
zero24gravity wrote:

I was more referring to in-game consistency than career consistency, which Paul, Al & the rest of the starters have been anything but. They start every game like they are running in mud, then come around & play better after the bench bails them out & gets back into the game. It happens more nights than not.

Zero!!! I agree. Hah. They have.

But I think it's very much reflective of the Foye/Marv scenario, combined with slow plodding Al and Tinsely. DC makes up for alot of that in my opinion. I'd bet that we have much better starts from our starting 5 if DC is planted in there and Marv is removed. Its a whole balance thing IMO, and crazy ass DC makes others jobs easier, and more importantly compliments them.

Mu!!! I also agree! Very Happy

I think it's more about Foye/Marv, but that still doesn't excuse the other players, especially Al, from starting 1-6 (might be a mild exageration) every freakin' game.
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