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 Gasol for Millsap?

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The Voice of Reason
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyTue Nov 27, 2012 8:56 pm

MTJazz wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:
MTJazz wrote:
outerspacefan wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:

I couldn't disagree with you more on that, and frankly don't know what you are even taking about. Seriously, what you just said makes no sense.

It's ok Mag. We just disagree.

My senses tell me that if the Jazz want to keep one of them, then Al is the better, more dependable option.

What I'm talking about is that Millsap has had long lapses in his career, every season, where he cannot play decent basketball. And IMHO it has to do with him being undersized and the Jazz constantly and unfairly asking him for too much.

Nah, Paul isn't undersized suddenly for 3-4 or 15 games of being checked out, its his head game that is undersized sometimes. Notice on nights when he isn't scoring he also isn't rebounding, getting steals and assists? We all know what Paul can do when he is fully on - borderline All-Star. The borderline is his inconsistency which I'm sorry to report appears to be in full swing early in the season. Matter of fact, he isn't even playing borderline All-Star ball this year, he is playing really average. When a guy swoons and stays there long (like Gordo right now) they really hurt the team because the coaches are still going to let them try to "play their way out of it". We've seen a lot of ineffective minutes given to a bunch of veteran Jazz players this season with that concept in mind, meanwhile young talent is on the bench not even getting a freaking sniff of the floor to show what they can bring. Paul, if he doesn't get back on his game and stay on it, is odd man out.


seriously? Where are you guys coming up with this crap? how many years does millsap have to perform, consistently, before you stop following every irrelevant slump with a bunch of idiotic, AND COMPLETELY BASELESS, drivel about inconsistency and being "undersized"?

5....7....10?

Mags, know idiocy or disrespect intended. Just observing that your Sap crush is rivaling CJ's JV love affair. No one is saying Paul is crap or a crap player. We are saying he is not playing that well lately and he has a history of that. He is not a "go to" player, he is a good cog in the machine. Either Sap or Al is gone after this season or both, therefore discussion of Paul's performance THIS YEAR and past year's is fair dinkum conversation on a fairly quiet board

He is pretty clutch....I'd rather have Millsap taking the last shot than probably anyone else on the team. I would consider him a "go to" player down the stretch...at least as much of a go to player as the jazz have.
The jazz as a whole are playing subpar this season, in my opinion, so to single out millsap's subpar performances is interesting. I agree that millsap and hayward both have struggled some offensively, but I believe they both do so many things (without the ball) that help the team...things that don't show up in a stat sheet.
Personally I weary of the "he is undersized for a power forward" comments. He is taller than Charles Barkley was, who got the job done and he is one inch shorter than Karl Malone. He has been getting the job done pretty darn consistently for years now, so I think that can be put to bed.
Am I saying that you can build a team around Paul? Not necessarily, but successful teams have had lesser power forwards.
I think the argument is enhanced by the fact that we have Favors waiting in the wings, improving every day. If our backup was Michael Ruffin, I wonder if the feelings would be the same?
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyTue Nov 27, 2012 10:05 pm

Alright, in the spirit of lively conversation, let's break this down point by point.


First of all, last time I checked this was, in fact, JAZZNATION, a website for jazz fans by jazz fans, and paul millsap is, in fact, a Jazz player, soooo...this may actually be the most appropriate place in the world to exhibit a fanatic level man crush on paul millsap. I will not apologize for that nor be ashamed, and you can pleasure yourself deep into the night with a broom handle for suggesting that I should.

And now I will use that little dig to start a three part lesson in why your opinions here are, in fact, idiotic. It's not because I disagree with your conclusion, it's because your justifications are weak and your assumptions are false.

First off, starting at the end, the Calg dig was weak not only for the reason above, but also because he has another crush that is infinitely more appropriate, AK. I always sported him in that crush while AK was a jazz man, even when I disagreed with the conclusions it led him to.

Second, the argument that millsap is inconsistent, and that when he is off offensively he doesn't contribute is false. If what you say is true, then over the last 3 seasons millsap has performed at near all star levels overall, IN SPITE OF THE FACT THAT HE APPARENTLY SPENDS LARGE CHUNKS OF GAMES BEING BASICALLY USELESS. So, that must mean that when he isn't useless he's border line elite, that's how that math works, and you are taking about just dumping an elite level talent because he has some bad stretches. On top of that blatant defiance of simple arithmetic a cursory look at his monthly splits over the years shows him to be probably the most consistently high performing player on the team. Better than jefferson, better than d-will. furthermore, when his scoring is down he actually maintains, or even (as in the playoffs last year) increases his effort and production in other areas. All of that is not opinion, it is fact supported by data. Does that mean he doesn't have rough patches? Of course not, every player does. Which brings me to my last point....


The fact that you then used consistency as a reason to chose Jefferson over millsap just boggles the mind. Combine that with this false notion that jefferson is more efficient offensively, and that millsap is "undersized", and that some how he is or will be more expensive than jefferson, and I have pretty much summed up your argument for keeping millsap over jefferson. Lets set aside the fact that a mountain of data proves every one of those assumptions wrong, and look at some other things. For example, jefferson has repeatedly proven that he has to play C and you have to run the offense through him for him to be effective. So where does that leave kanter? we've been doing that for two years now, and the jazz O efficiency has be en in the bottom half of the NBA almost the whole time, you want to just keep watching that? you talk about millsaps price tag, but just conveniently forget to mention the fact that jefferson will likely be several million more, PER YEAR, than millsap and will probably command near max money this season, you honestly think he is worth that?

Finally, this stupid idea that since millsap is not and never will be a "go to guy"
He's not worth paying good money to keep. That's just ridiculous on so many levels. For starters, he's been really damn good as"the man" for the jazz in the clutch, but in general he never had been and never will be expected to be that guy by the jazz or anyone else. As such, he never has been and never will be paid like one. He knows what he is, every body else knows what he is, so why are we suddenly judging him based on what he isn't? And if you don't think he's worth 9 figures a year in todays NBA then you haven't been paying attention and you are very close to sounding like an old person arguing with the cashier over the price of milk.

Anyways, all in good fun guys, sometimes the strong language helps make things more interesting, but it's nothing personal, I like you guys, and your broom handles.
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyTue Nov 27, 2012 10:21 pm

Broom handles....that's great. Smile
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyTue Nov 27, 2012 11:38 pm

The Voice of Reason wrote:
Broom handles....that's great. Smile

"Mountains of data". That's great too. Bust out the mountains of data then, there are some smart people on this board who respect data. This ain't personal and you owned your man crush which in my mind is a good Jazz fan attribute. I'm a little bit afloat because I don't have one on any Jazz player at the moment because top to bottom they are pissing me off and playing hard to get though I kinda think of Kanter as my 8th grade crush and he is going to be a bonafide stud in high school and only I saw it coming Wink
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyTue Nov 27, 2012 11:42 pm

Romoholic wrote:

It's quiet, but it's ours Very Happy It takes a lot of time to create a succesfull board, sometimes years, but we have a great base here and I consider most of you guys my friends, even though I have never met most of you! cheers

I'm all good here, no worries. Was just trying to get Mags to not squelch respectful disagreement with name calling, though I am in fact frequently an idiot in life, so I didn't take it personally. Good smack talk is good smack talk, we all know each other, let the good times roll.
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyWed Nov 28, 2012 1:24 am

NO TRADE FOR GASOL!!! (If I may be allowed to go back to the very beginning of this thread)

Gasol has tendonitis in his knees, can't play full time Center and whines about having to play with one and has a HUGE contract. No. No.

And no.

Second: Millsap has had stretches each year where he is unproductive. In the past, we've written it off (when anyone dared to even mention it) as him being tired from having to play bigger guys all the time. But that isn't the case now. He may be nursing a minor injury, I don't know, but he hasn't been good the last few games.

His rebounding has regressed from the almost-magical levels of his college and early Jazz days. His defense has not been consistently great for the last couple of years (spike in steals aside).

And as we have seen in previous playoff runs (Lakers, Spurs), he is NOT a "go to guy". As much as he's improved his offensive game, he can't overcome being guarded by guys much longer than he is. AND HE IS NOT 6'8"!! Hell, why don't they just list him as 7'2"? Problem solved!

Millsap would be about 100% better playing with a gifted pass-first point guard. You know, the kind of guy the Jazz haven't had recently.

I would have been in favor of extending him for somewhere south of $10 mill/year, but that opportunity might be gone. As much as he's worked to improve his game, as great of a teammate as he might have been, as well las he's played in the past...none of that changes the fact that if he isn't playing well, he isn't playing well.

But I don't have any solutions, honestly.

Except don't trade for Gasol.
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyWed Nov 28, 2012 9:52 am

Trollificus wrote:
NO TRADE FOR GASOL!!! (If I may be allowed to go back to the very beginning of this thread)

Gasol has tendonitis in his knees, can't play full time Center and whines about having to play with one and has a HUGE contract. No. No.

And no.

Second: Millsap has had stretches each year where he is unproductive. In the past, we've written it off (when anyone dared to even mention it) as him being tired from having to play bigger guys all the time. But that isn't the case now. He may be nursing a minor injury, I don't know, but he hasn't been good the last few games.

His rebounding has regressed from the almost-magical levels of his college and early Jazz days. His defense has not been consistently great for the last couple of years (spike in steals aside).

And as we have seen in previous playoff runs (Lakers, Spurs), he is NOT a "go to guy". As much as he's improved his offensive game, he can't overcome being guarded by guys much longer than he is. AND HE IS NOT 6'8"!! Hell, why don't they just list him as 7'2"? Problem solved!

Millsap would be about 100% better playing with a gifted pass-first point guard. You know, the kind of guy the Jazz haven't had recently.

I would have been in favor of extending him for somewhere south of $10 mill/year, but that opportunity might be gone. As much as he's worked to improve his game, as great of a teammate as he might have been, as well las he's played in the past...none of that changes the fact that if he isn't playing well, he isn't playing well.

But I don't have any solutions, honestly.

Except don't trade for Gasol.

I'm in an agreeable mood this morning (maybe it's cause I read the "Lakers suck" thread first). I think you've made a lot of good points in this post. No trade for Gasol, Millsap is not playing well (not that many other Jazzmen are), and while he's a good all-around player, he is not a go-to player that will carry a good team. However, I do like Paul a lot & I wish there was a way to sign him for $8million-ish, and have him be a killer bench player moving forward. I'm feeling ready to see Favors get a big minute push. I also think that Kanter & even Evans need to see some more time as well. Those minutes will, undoubtably need to come at the expense of the Jazz' good, but underperforming, starting frontcourt players.
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyWed Nov 28, 2012 12:32 pm

TheMagnus wrote:

...the most appropriate place in the world to exhibit a fanatic level man crush... I will not apologize for that nor be ashamed, and you can pleasure yourself deep into the night with a broom handle... I like you guys, and your broom handles.

r u sure this is the right forum? flower elephant Suspect
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyThu Nov 29, 2012 10:18 am

MTJazz wrote:
"Mountains of data".

I like both Jefferson and Millsap a lot. I am just going to hope Lindsey and O'Conner make great decisions and great deals to better the team this season or next summer. I checked a few stats on these guys, with the emphasis on a few. Of course due to Millsap's recent early season, mini slump, Jefferson is substantially ahead this season, but over time, they are both rated very high. Nonetheless, on tendex per 48 mins, a measure of productivity/efficiency that is generally in line with NBA.com's efficiency per 48 min ratings, Jefferson beats Millsap this season and edges him out each of the last two seasons. Jefferson also beats Millsap at ESPN Hollinger's stats on PER (Personal Efficiency Rating), VA (Value Added) and EWA (Estimated Wins Added) this season and edges him out each of the last two seasons.

http://www.dougstats.com/12-13Tendex.html
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/c/sort/VORP

I didn't check plus/minus, measures of clutch shooting or defensive measures. I suspect that Millsap is rated higher in the last five minutes of the games historically. When Jefferson is making a conscious effort to use his fancy footwork to drive within several feet of the basket, like he did a few times last night, I like Jefferson ALOT!!! When he settles for a push shot from 10 feet out, not so much. I agree with the poster who said that Favors can help cover for some of Jefferson's defensive lapses when the two of them are on the court together.

I wouldn't trade either Jefferson or Millsap for Pau Gasol right now. JMO.


Last edited by Crunchtime1 on Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:02 pm; edited 2 times in total
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyThu Nov 29, 2012 10:29 am

Crunchtime1 wrote:
MTJazz wrote:
"Mountains of data".

I like both Jefferson and Millsap a lot, but I am just going to hope Lindsey and O'Conner make great decisions and great deals for the team. I checked a few stats on these guys, with the emphasis on a few. Of course due to Millsap's recent early season, mini slump, Jefferson is substantially ahead this season, but over time, they are both rated very high. Nonetheless, on tendex per 48 mins, a measure of productivity/efficiency that is generally in line with NBA.com's efficiency per 48 min ratings, Jefferson beats Millsap this season and each of the last two seasons. Jefferson also beats Millsap at Hollinger's stats on PER (Personal Efficiency Rating), VA (Value Added) and EWA (Estimated Wins Added) this season and each of the last two seasons.

http://www.dougstats.com/12-13Tendex.html
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/c/sort/VORP

I didn't check plus/minus, measures of clutch shooting (I suspect Millsap may be rated higher in the last five minutes of the game historically) or defensive measures. When Jefferson is making a conscious effort to use his fancy footwork to drive within several feet of the basket, like he did a few times last night, I like Jefferson ALOT!!! When he settles for a push shot from 10 feet out, not so much. I agree with the poster who said that Favors can help cover for some of Jefferson's defensive lapses when the two of them are on the court together.

I wouldn't trade either Jefferson or Millsap for Pau Gasol right now. JMO.

Jefferson was great on offense last night. He didn't just stand there with the ball. He made strong, decisive moves TWORD the basket, which makes him much more effective.

While Millsap was still not on his game offensively, he made a number of hustle plays. Those hustle, hard nosed plays are one thing that Paul has been missing more & more over time. I really liked to see him getting 2nd & third rebounds.

Of coarse, you have to take both performances with a grain of salt.... afterall, this was the freakin' Hornets without their best inside presence (A.Davis).
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyThu Nov 29, 2012 12:00 pm

Crunchtime1 wrote:
MTJazz wrote:
"Mountains of data".

I like both Jefferson and Millsap a lot. I am just going to hope Lindsey and O'Conner make great decisions and great deals to better the team this season or next summer. I checked a few stats on these guys, with the emphasis on a few. Of course due to Millsap's recent early season, mini slump, Jefferson is substantially ahead this season, but over time, they are both rated very high. Nonetheless, on tendex per 48 mins, a measure of productivity/efficiency that is generally in line with NBA.com's efficiency per 48 min ratings, Jefferson beats Millsap this season and each of the last two seasons. Jefferson also beats Millsap at ESPN Hollinger's stats on PER (Personal Efficiency Rating), VA (Value Added) and EWA (Estimated Wins Added) this season and each of the last two seasons.

http://www.dougstats.com/12-13Tendex.html
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/c/sort/VORP

I didn't check plus/minus, measures of clutch shooting or defensive measures. I suspect that Millsap is rated higher in the last five minutes of the games historically. When Jefferson is making a conscious effort to use his fancy footwork to drive within several feet of the basket, like he did a few times last night, I like Jefferson ALOT!!! When he settles for a push shot from 10 feet out, not so much. I agree with the poster who said that Favors can help cover for some of Jefferson's defensive lapses when the two of them are on the court together.

I wouldn't trade either Jefferson or Millsap for Pau Gasol right now. JMO.

I've meaning to get back to this but I haven't has time, as you probably noticed, thedifference between the two in terms of overall metrics is very small. But those metrics don't get to my points, hopefully this weekend I can really show you guys what I am talking about.
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyThu Nov 29, 2012 12:21 pm

zero24gravity wrote:
Crunchtime1 wrote:
MTJazz wrote:
"Mountains of data".

I like both Jefferson and Millsap a lot, but I am just going to hope Lindsey and O'Conner make great decisions and great deals for the team. I checked a few stats on these guys, with the emphasis on a few. Of course due to Millsap's recent early season, mini slump, Jefferson is substantially ahead this season, but over time, they are both rated very high. Nonetheless, on tendex per 48 mins, a measure of productivity/efficiency that is generally in line with NBA.com's efficiency per 48 min ratings, Jefferson beats Millsap this season and each of the last two seasons. Jefferson also beats Millsap at Hollinger's stats on PER (Personal Efficiency Rating), VA (Value Added) and EWA (Estimated Wins Added) this season and each of the last two seasons.

http://www.dougstats.com/12-13Tendex.html
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/c/sort/VORP

I didn't check plus/minus, measures of clutch shooting (I suspect Millsap may be rated higher in the last five minutes of the game historically) or defensive measures. When Jefferson is making a conscious effort to use his fancy footwork to drive within several feet of the basket, like he did a few times last night, I like Jefferson ALOT!!! When he settles for a push shot from 10 feet out, not so much. I agree with the poster who said that Favors can help cover for some of Jefferson's defensive lapses when the two of them are on the court together.

I wouldn't trade either Jefferson or Millsap for Pau Gasol right now. JMO.

Jefferson was great on offense last night. He didn't just stand there with the ball. He made strong, decisive moves TWORD the basket, which makes him much more effective.

While Millsap was still not on his game offensively, he made a number of hustle plays. Those hustle, hard nosed plays are one thing that Paul has been missing more & more over time. I really liked to see him getting 2nd & third rebounds.

Of coarse, you have to take both performances with a grain of salt.... afterall, this was the freakin' Hornets without their best inside presence (A.Davis).

I agree with you here, but find it interesting that you would laude Jeffersons offensive performance and talk about Millsap struggling.

That is really a perfect illustration of what I am trying to get at here. Last night Millsap scored just as many points as jefferson(15), shot the same percentage from the field (50%), played the same minutes (32), but was significantly more efficient needing only 11 offensive possessions to score 15 points compared to jeffersons 15...


You see what I'm getting at? The disconnect between the perception of the way these two players perform, and the way they actually produce, is really incredible.
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyThu Nov 29, 2012 2:14 pm

TheMagnus wrote:
I agree with you here, but find it interesting that you would laude Jeffersons offensive performance and talk about Millsap struggling.

That is really a perfect illustration of what I am trying to get at here. Last night Millsap scored just as many points as jefferson(15), shot the same percentage from the field (50%), played the same minutes (32), but was significantly more efficient needing only 11 offensive possessions to score 15 points compared to jeffersons 15...


You see what I'm getting at? The disconnect between the perception of the way these two players perform, and the way they actually produce, is really incredible.

Going back & re-reading my post I can see where you are coming from. However, my point was more that I was happy that Al was making quicker decisions on offense & not fading away from the basket. He was more agressive last night, which causes the entire team's offense to be less stagnant.

And my thoughts on Millsap were also positive. I thought he appeared to being playing harder than in past games. More like the Millsap of old. I admit that I didn't look at the box score before stating that Millsap "struggled" on offense. 50% is not a bad day at the office. It just didn't appear, from watching the game, that he hit that percentage.

I say it a lot ... I like Millsap. I think he's probably the best all-around player on the team right now. But what I also think is that the current Jazz team, lead by Paul & Al, will not be a top team. The only chance of that with this roster, is for Favors &/or Kanter to blossom into a stud big IMO.

You also can't argue that Millsap is stuggling this year, and there doesn't seem to be any good reason.
He's playing about 2 minutes less than last year a game, but his FG% is way down, as is his FT%. His TO's are up, he is fouling more, his scoring is down, his steals per game have been cut in HALF. On the flip side, he has shown the ability to knock down a 3 from time to time, and his assists & blocks have been raised slightly.
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyThu Nov 29, 2012 3:34 pm

zero24gravity wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:
I agree with you here, but find it interesting that you would laude Jeffersons offensive performance and talk about Millsap struggling.

That is really a perfect illustration of what I am trying to get at here. Last night Millsap scored just as many points as jefferson(15), shot the same percentage from the field (50%), played the same minutes (32), but was significantly more efficient needing only 11 offensive possessions to score 15 points compared to jeffersons 15...


You see what I'm getting at? The disconnect between the perception of the way these two players perform, and the way they actually produce, is really incredible.

Going back & re-reading my post I can see where you are coming from. However, my point was more that I was happy that Al was making quicker decisions on offense & not fading away from the basket. He was more agressive last night, which causes the entire team's offense to be less stagnant.

And my thoughts on Millsap were also positive. I thought he appeared to being playing harder than in past games. More like the Millsap of old. I admit that I didn't look at the box score before stating that Millsap "struggled" on offense. 50% is not a bad day at the office. It just didn't appear, from watching the game, that he hit that percentage.

I say it a lot ... I like Millsap. I think he's probably the best all-around player on the team right now. But what I also think is that the current Jazz team, lead by Paul & Al, will not be a top team. The only chance of that with this roster, is for Favors &/or Kanter to blossom into a stud big IMO.

You also can't argue that Millsap is stuggling this year, and there doesn't seem to be any good reason.
He's playing about 2 minutes less than last year a game, but his FG% is way down, as is his FT%. His TO's are up, he is fouling more, his scoring is down, his steals per game have been cut in HALF. On the flip side, he has shown the ability to knock down a 3 from time to time, and his assists & blocks have been raised slightly.

It wasn't that way for the first 10 games, he was hands down the best player on the team. He had a couple bad games in a row so the snapshot now los worse, but it really isn't that bad
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyThu Nov 29, 2012 3:38 pm

TheMagnus wrote:
zero24gravity wrote:
TheMagnus wrote:
I agree with you here, but find it interesting that you would laude Jeffersons offensive performance and talk about Millsap struggling.

That is really a perfect illustration of what I am trying to get at here. Last night Millsap scored just as many points as jefferson(15), shot the same percentage from the field (50%), played the same minutes (32), but was significantly more efficient needing only 11 offensive possessions to score 15 points compared to jeffersons 15...


You see what I'm getting at? The disconnect between the perception of the way these two players perform, and the way they actually produce, is really incredible.

Going back & re-reading my post I can see where you are coming from. However, my point was more that I was happy that Al was making quicker decisions on offense & not fading away from the basket. He was more agressive last night, which causes the entire team's offense to be less stagnant.

And my thoughts on Millsap were also positive. I thought he appeared to being playing harder than in past games. More like the Millsap of old. I admit that I didn't look at the box score before stating that Millsap "struggled" on offense. 50% is not a bad day at the office. It just didn't appear, from watching the game, that he hit that percentage.

I say it a lot ... I like Millsap. I think he's probably the best all-around player on the team right now. But what I also think is that the current Jazz team, lead by Paul & Al, will not be a top team. The only chance of that with this roster, is for Favors &/or Kanter to blossom into a stud big IMO.

You also can't argue that Millsap is stuggling this year, and there doesn't seem to be any good reason.
He's playing about 2 minutes less than last year a game, but his FG% is way down, as is his FT%. His TO's are up, he is fouling more, his scoring is down, his steals per game have been cut in HALF. On the flip side, he has shown the ability to knock down a 3 from time to time, and his assists & blocks have been raised slightly.

It wasn't that way for the first 10 games, he was hands down the best player on the team. He had a couple bad games in a row so the snapshot now los worse, but it really isn't that bad

They said last night he averaged 21ppg through the first 5 and then 8ppg through the last 5. That's a huge drop and I don't know what the reason for it is?

I have to chalk it up to the typical Milsap midseason slump, but it came early this season. I still expect him to average around 18ppg for the season. He is too good of a player to not.
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyThu Nov 29, 2012 6:56 pm

Trollificus wrote:
NO TRADE FOR GASOL!!! (If I may be allowed to go back to the very beginning of this thread)

Gasol has tendonitis in his knees, can't play full time Center and whines about having to play with one and has a HUGE contract. No. No.

And no.

Second: Millsap has had stretches each year where he is unproductive. In the past, we've written it off (when anyone dared to even mention it) as him being tired from having to play bigger guys all the time. But that isn't the case now. He may be nursing a minor injury, I don't know, but he hasn't been good the last few games.

His rebounding has regressed from the almost-magical levels of his college and early Jazz days. His defense has not been consistently great for the last couple of years (spike in steals aside).

And as we have seen in previous playoff runs (Lakers, Spurs), he is NOT a "go to guy". As much as he's improved his offensive game, he can't overcome being guarded by guys much longer than he is. AND HE IS NOT 6'8"!! Hell, why don't they just list him as 7'2"? Problem solved!

Millsap would be about 100% better playing with a gifted pass-first point guard. You know, the kind of guy the Jazz haven't had recently.

I would have been in favor of extending him for somewhere south of $10 mill/year, but that opportunity might be gone. As much as he's worked to improve his game, as great of a teammate as he might have been, as well las he's played in the past...none of that changes the fact that if he isn't playing well, he isn't playing well.

But I don't have any solutions, honestly.

Except don't trade for Gasol.

I half agree with your "Don't trade for Gasol." It's the half about giving up Paul for Pao. And that's not because I think Pao is washed up. It's because the Jazz (due to contracts) would have to give up more this year (a la losing Burkes or others) than we'd be getting in the long run.

I think the Lakers would be willing to make some concessions to get Paul and Burkes-- mostly because you are right about Paul benefitting from a great passing PG (more than Pao), which the Lakers have in Nash.
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyFri Nov 30, 2012 11:22 pm

MTJazz wrote:
The Voice of Reason wrote:
Broom handles....that's great. Smile

"Mountains of data". That's great too. Bust out the mountains of data then, there are some smart people on this board who respect data. This ain't personal and you owned your man crush which in my mind is a good Jazz fan attribute. I'm a little bit afloat because I don't have one on any Jazz player at the moment because top to bottom they are pissing me off and playing hard to get though I kinda think of Kanter as my 8th grade crush and he is going to be a bonafide stud in high school and only I saw it coming Wink

Boy Kanter sure has been looking better the last couple games hasn't he? Be interesting to see how he does with more minutes if Favors is going to be out for a few games.

Anyways, time to finnish this off, and start pouring out the data...

Just to being it up to speed, we have the following major points which I firmly disagree with:

1) Jefferson is a more reliably efficient scorer than Millsap
2) Millsap is more prone to have lapses of "ineffective" play than the average player, has extended lapses every season, and his other numbers drop (steals, rebounds, blocks) during these times.
3) Jefferson is better than Millsap in clutch situations

DATA

First of all an explanation of the numbers,

Points per game and FG% = self explanitory.
TS% = Total Shooting percentage, this takes into consideration the fact that 3's are worth more and FT's aren't part of FG%
PPP = Points per Possession, this is like total shooting percentage only it also accounts for turnovers, assuming that half of all turnovers come when a player is attempting to score (roughly) and counting them as shot attempts. I included this one specifically to give credit to Jefferson for his low turnover rate.

Point 1) Offenseive Ability.

This is a very convenient point for me to make now because the last two games have perfectly illustrated this, but lets talk Macro.

Here is a listing of Points per game, FG%, TS%, and PPP for Millsap and Jefferson over the past 3 years

Points per Game
Year - Jefferson Millsap
12-13 16.6 14.2
11-12 19.2 16.6
10-11 18.6 17.3

FG%
Year - Jefferson Millsap
12-13 0.474 0.458
11-12 0.492 0.495
10-11 0.496 0.531

TS%
Year - Jefferson Millsap
12-13 0.514 0.538
11-12 0.520 0.545
10-11 0.528 0.578

PPP
Year - Jefferson Millsap
12-13 0.987 0.995
11-12 1.011 1.030
10-11 1.019 1.087

So what does that show? It shows that when you look at the sum total of these two players work, you are going to get more points if you give the ball to Paul Millsap than you will if you give it to Al Jefferson.

Verdict: The data is conclusive, over the course of a season Jefferson is NOT a more efficient or reliable offensive player than Millsap.



Point 2) Lapses. This is interesting, because how do you quantify it, and more importantly how do you compare one player to another? The best way would be with colorful charts and graphs, but I'm not going to put in that kind of effort, so lets just look at some monthly splits and see what we can see.

The easy stats to pull are FG%, PTS, REB, and AST, so lets look at those over the previous two seasons

10-11
Stat - Average - Best (Mo) - Worst (Mo)
FG% - 0.53 - 0.56 (Mar) - 0.49 (Jan)
PTS - 17.3 - 19.2 (Feb) - 15.5 (Jan)
REB - 7.6 - 8.5 (Feb) - 7.0 (Dec)
AST - 2.5 - 3.0 (Mar) - 1.6 (Dec)
Min - 34.3 - 36.0 (Mar) - 32.0 (Jan)


11-12
Stat - Average - Best (Mo) - Worst (Mo)
FG% - 0.495 - .543 (Jan) - .452 (Feb)
PTS - 16.6 - 18.1 (Jan) - 13.8 (Feb)
REB - 8.8 - 9.4 (Jan) - 8.5 (Mar)
AST - 2.3 - 2.7 (Mar) - 2.1 (Jan)
Min - 32.8 - 37.2 (Apr) - 30.1 (Feb)

I know those are kind of tough to read, but what you see there if you look real hard is that it is clear that Millsap has gone through a "slump" mid season over the last couple years, but those are also the months were he plays the fewest minutes, if you adjust the numbers to per minute rather than per game you would see that the "slumps" are even less significant. Furthermore, Millsap maintains or increases his production in rebounds and assists per minute when his FG% and points per game drop, and a quick look through the spits shows similar results for Blocks and Steals.

So how does that compare?

Well lets take a quick look at a Player widely heralded for his consistency, Al Jefferson.

10-11
Stat - Average - Best (Mo) - Worst (Mo)
FG% - 0.496 - .55 (Feb) - .46 (Dec)
PTS - 18.6 - 23.8 (Feb) - 16.4 (Jan)
REB - 9.7 - 11.6 (Mar) - 8.7 (Nov)
AST - 1.8 - 2.2 (Mar) - 1.3 (Jan)
Min - 35.9 - 33.1 (Jan) - 38.4 (Feb)


11-12
Stat - Average - Best (Mo) - Worst (Mo)
FG% - 0.492 - .53 (Mar) - 0.48 (Apr)
PTS - 19.2 - 21.4 (Mar) - 18.7 (Jan)
REB - 9.6 - 10.2 (Apr) - 9.1 (Jan)
AST - 2.2 - 2.4 (Feb) - 1.8 (Jan)
Min - 34 - 36.2 (Apr) - 32.7 (Feb)

Again, kind f tough to read, but what you see from Jefferson is that he actually kind of has the opposite situation from Millsap. Instead of putting up a bunch of above average months and then a stinker or two, Jefferson will put up a bunch of slightly below average months and then have one or two really good ones. Interesting to note though, that while Millsaps minutes generally went down in the months that he didn't shoot well, Jeffersons did not, and adjusting the numbers to per minute rather than per game actually makes Jefferson's consistency look worse rather than better.

Verdict: I'd say the notion of Millsaps inconsistency is at the very least overblown, if it exists at all, relative to his peers. This is shown my the fact that Jefferson is little better, if at all better, in terms of consistency, but it is a small sample and I'm not going to put any more work into proving that so lets say it was inconclusive. Without question the notion that the other parts of Millsaps game suffer during his "slumps" is false based on the data.



Point 3) Clutch Performance.

82Games.com and NBA.com both keep Clutch performance numbers, I will use 82Games.com numbers here. Here is the clutch production for the two of them for the last 3 seasons, numbers are given per minute of clutch time.

eFG = takes into account that 3's are worth more than 2's

12-13
Millsap - 66% FG, 80% eFG, 46 points.
Jefferson - 50% FG, 53% eFG, 33 Points

11-12
Millsap - 42% FG, 44% eFG, 23.3 Points
Jefferson - 44% FG, 44% eFG, 25.6 Points

10-11
Millsap - 51% FG, 53% eFG, 26.7 Points
Jefferson - 56% FG, 56% eFG, 34.9 Points


Verdict: Both of these guys are good in the clutch, really good in fact. 2010-2011 Jefferson had the clear advantage, but last year and this year Millsap has been equal or better, and that is a pretty big sample, so right now you can't say that Jefferson is better scoring in the clutch than Millsap.


So there you have it, enough data to make you question everything you believe about Millsap and Jefferson.

I have been arguing for a while now that in terms of overall helping a team win the two of these guys are not that far apart, and that most of the basketball related reasons people give for one being better than the other are crap. They each have strengths and weaknesses that make them poor candidates to be "foundational" players, but those same things make them outstanding complimentary players in the right situation, and they each contribute similar overall value in spite of the fact that they do it in vastly different ways.

I have three main things that make me think Millsap is better for the Jazz, and none of them have anything to do with him being a "better" player than Jefferson. One, he is and will always be cheaper; two, he's still effective when he isn't the focus of the offense (the same CANNOT be said for Jefferson); and three, I love the hell out of the way the guy plays the game.

So there you have it, a mountain, just like you asked for.


Last edited by TheMagnus on Sat Dec 01, 2012 12:51 am; edited 3 times in total
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyFri Nov 30, 2012 11:47 pm

TheMagnus wrote:
MTJazz wrote:
The Voice of Reason wrote:
Broom handles....that's great. Smile

"Mountains of data". That's great too. Bust out the mountains of data then, there are some smart people on this board who respect data. This ain't personal and you owned your man crush which in my mind is a good Jazz fan attribute. I'm a little bit afloat because I don't have one on any Jazz player at the moment because top to bottom they are pissing me off and playing hard to get though I kinda think of Kanter as my 8th grade crush and he is going to be a bonafide stud in high school and only I saw it coming Wink

Boy Kanter sure has been looking better the last couple games hasn't he? Be interesting to see how he does with more minutes if Favors is going to be out for a few games.

Anyways, time to finnish this off, and start pouring out the data...

Just to being it up to speed, we have the following major points which I firmly disagree with:

1) Jefferson is a more reliably efficient scorer than Millsap
2) Millsap is more prone to have lapses of "ineffective" play than the average player, has extended lapses every season, and his other numbers drop (steals, rebounds, blocks) during these times.
3) Jefferson is better than Millsap in clutch situations
4) Millsap will be easier to trade now, and harder to keep in the off-season.

DATA

First of all an explanation of the numbers,

Points per game and FG% = self explanitory.
TS% = Total Shooting percentage, this takes into consideration the fact that 3's are worth more and FT's aren't part of FG%
PPP = Points per Possession, this is like total shooting percentage only it also accounts for turnovers, assuming that half of all turnovers come when a player is attempting to score (roughly) and counting them as shot attempts. I included this one specifically to give credit to Jefferson for his low turnover rate.

Point 1) This is a very convenient point for me to make now because the last two games have perfectly illustrated this, but lets talk Macro.

Here is a listing of Points per game, FG%, TS%, and PPP for Millsap and Jefferson over the past 3 years

Points per Game
Year - Jefferson Millsap
12-13 16.6 14.2
11-12 19.2 16.6
10-11 18.6 17.3

FG%
Year - Jefferson Millsap
12-13 0.474 0.458
11-12 0.492 0.495
10-11 0.496 0.531

TS%
Year - Jefferson Millsap
12-13 0.514 0.538
11-12 0.520 0.545
10-11 0.528 0.578

PPP
Year - Jefferson Millsap
12-13 0.987 0.995
11-12 1.011 1.030
10-11 1.019 1.087

So what does that show? It shows that when you look at the sum total of these two players work, you are going to get more points if you give the ball to Paul Millsap than you will if you give it to Al Jefferson, and that doesn't even count for assisted baskets which Millsap dominates.

Verdict: Jefferson is NOT a more efficient or reliable offensive player than Millsap



Point 2) Lapses. This is interesting, because how do you quantify it, and more importantly how do you compare one player to another? The best way would be with colorful charts and graphs, but I'm not going to put in that kind of effort, so lets just look at some monthly splits and see what we can see.

The easy stats to pull are FG%, PTS, REB, and AST, so lets look at those over the previous two seasons

10-11
Stat - Average - Best (Mo) - Worst (Mo)
FG% - 0.53 - 0.56 (Mar) - 0.49 (Jan)
PTS - 17.3 - 19.2 (Feb) - 15.5 (Jan)
REB - 7.6 - 8.5 (Feb) - 7.0 (Dec)
AST - 2.5 - 3.0 (Mar) - 1.6 (Dec)
Min - 34.3 - 36.0 (Mar) - 32.0 (Jan)


11-12
Stat - Average - Best (Mo) - Worst (Mo)
FG% - 0.495 - .543 (Jan) - .452 (Feb)
PTS - 16.6 - 18.1 (Jan) - 13.8 (Feb)
REB - 8.8 - 9.4 (Jan) - 8.5 (Mar)
AST - 2.3 - 2.7 (Mar) - 2.1 (Jan)
Min - 32.8 - 37.2 (Apr) - 30.1 (Feb)


I'm sure one will be gone.Had millslap shown more interest when the jazz made there offer but not to sure he really wants to stay in utah? He may be thinking rings and would be nice potato with the meat in the heat?
I loved the way Enes played tonight and it only makes me want to see him getting more time. I'm not one to make moves but come trade deadline i want to see a little something happen. Maybe move one east for picks or young PG. Hard to make deals where both teams come out ahead. And if you only feel like you break even why make the deal? If not, someone will be walking without anything back and that may not be the worse thing to happen cost wise.
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptySat Dec 01, 2012 12:49 am

Richardale wrote:


I'm sure one will be gone.Had millslap shown more interest when the jazz made there offer but not to sure he really wants to stay in utah? He may be thinking rings and would be nice potato with the meat in the heat?
I loved the way Enes played tonight and it only makes me want to see him getting more time. I'm not one to make moves but come trade deadline i want to see a little something happen. Maybe move one east for picks or young PG. Hard to make deals where both teams come out ahead. And if you only feel like you break even why make the deal? If not, someone will be walking without anything back and that may not be the worse thing to happen cost wise.

The Jazz could not make a reasonable offer due to NBA rules, so Millsaps interest had nothing to do with it. Both sides showed enough interest to at least sit down and start to negotiate, which is more than you can say for Jefferson right now, so that should count for something.



Note form the Moderator: You double posted this, so I deleted one of the copies. I Just wanted to let you know so you didn't think I was messing with you.
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptySat Dec 01, 2012 9:32 am

TheMagnus wrote:
Richardale wrote:


I'm sure one will be gone.Had millslap shown more interest when the jazz made there offer but not to sure he really wants to stay in utah? He may be thinking rings and would be nice potato with the meat in the heat?
I loved the way Enes played tonight and it only makes me want to see him getting more time. I'm not one to make moves but come trade deadline i want to see a little something happen. Maybe move one east for picks or young PG. Hard to make deals where both teams come out ahead. And if you only feel like you break even why make the deal? If not, someone will be walking without anything back and that may not be the worse thing to happen cost wise.

The Jazz could not make a reasonable offer due to NBA rules, so Millsaps interest had nothing to do with it. Both sides showed enough interest to at least sit down and start to negotiate, which is more than you can say for Jefferson right now, so that should count for something.



Note form the Moderator: You double posted this, so I deleted one of the copies. I Just wanted to let you know so you didn't think I was messing with you.

Ive seen times millsap was open i mean wide open and other players just not throw the dam ball down. Tried of watching me ball the last few games.

As for millsap he and Al may both be walking if we see to much greed?
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptySat Dec 01, 2012 5:25 pm

Here's what the Lakers might get in trades for Gasol. Do you think these offers are all better than a Millsap and...wait! WHO were we going to throw in for the other $8-10 million to cover the money part of the deal?? Or did it turn into a(nother) Millsap v. Jefferson thread before that consideration was taken into account.?

It would have to be Millsap and a Williams (either one, I'd prefer to give up Marvin) to get it up to within 20% of Gasol's $19mill. (at least $15.2 mill). Jefferson and Foey would add up too, though I can't see that trade being attractive to the Lakers. Plus, if we got Gasol, don't we have the same cluttered C spot Gasol has had trouble with and the same cluttered frontcourt the Jazz currently are dealing with?

Anyway, for the click impaired, one offer was for Bargiani/Calderon, and one was for Josh Smith and Kyle Korver. If I was the Lakers, those both actually look pretty good.

It's just from some rag called the NY times, so it may be made-up bullshit anyway.
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptySat Dec 01, 2012 6:19 pm

Trollificus wrote:
Here's what the Lakers might get in trades for Gasol. Do you think these offers are all better than a Millsap and...wait! WHO were we going to throw in for the other $8-10 million to cover the money part of the deal?? Or did it turn into a(nother) Millsap v. Jefferson thread before that consideration was taken into account.?

It would have to be Millsap and a Williams (either one, I'd prefer to give up Marvin) to get it up to within 20% of Gasol's $19mill. (at least $15.2 mill). Jefferson and Foey would add up too, though I can't see that trade being attractive to the Lakers. Plus, if we got Gasol, don't we have the same cluttered C spot Gasol has had trouble with and the same cluttered frontcourt the Jazz currently are dealing with?

Anyway, for the click impaired, one offer was for Bargiani/Calderon, and one was for Josh Smith and Kyle Korver. If I was the Lakers, those both actually look pretty good.

It's just from some rag called the NY times, so it may be made-up bullshit anyway.

The rules changed with the new CBA, it's 150% now, Gasol is due for 19 Million this year so the Jazz would just have to come up with about 12.7 Mil in total salaries to make the deal work. So theoretically the Jazz could throw Bell and Watson into the deal to make it work.

That's how this got to Jefferson v. Millsap, I suggested that the deal could be straight up for Jefferson. That deal also makes more sense on the court, as Gasol and Jefferson occupy the same space and a lot of the same problems Gasol is having with Howard he would have with Jefferson.

Regardless though, I pretty much hate everything about any trade for Gasol right now.

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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptySun Dec 02, 2012 3:04 am

Trollificus wrote:
Here's what the Lakers might get in trades for Gasol. Do you think these offers are all better than a Millsap and...wait! WHO were we going to throw in for the other $8-10 million to cover the money part of the deal?? Or did it turn into a(nother) Millsap v. Jefferson thread before that consideration was taken into account.?

It would have to be Millsap and a Williams (either one, I'd prefer to give up Marvin) to get it up to within 20% of Gasol's $19mill. (at least $15.2 mill). Jefferson and Foey would add up too, though I can't see that trade being attractive to the Lakers. Plus, if we got Gasol, don't we have the same cluttered C spot Gasol has had trouble with and the same cluttered frontcourt the Jazz currently are dealing with?

Anyway, for the click impaired, one offer was for Bargiani/Calderon, and one was for Josh Smith and Kyle Korver. If I was the Lakers, those both actually look pretty good.

It's just from some rag called the NY times, so it may be made-up bullshit anyway.

I don't think the Lakers are worried about the overall cost of making a move. I think the Lakers want to make a move that will help them now-- and then let their money talk down the road. I'm sure they would love to get Marvin Williams, but, they have options to overpay other players (like Raja Bell) while still getting future promise from a player like Burkes.

I don't think a Lakers/Jazz trade is in the works-- unless it's like the trade that the Lakers made with Memphis to get Pao in the first place. As I said when that trade went down: it put Memphis into serious contention for 2012. The Lakers may want to do the same to the Jazz for hopes in 2015. The Lakers can buy their way into contention any year they want. Unless the Lakers go into a rebuilding mode, I think they want a few more championships while Kobe is on board.

The Jazz just have to make the best of it (and hope).
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PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyWed Dec 05, 2012 10:31 am

TheMagnus wrote:
MTJazz wrote:
The Voice of Reason wrote:
Broom handles....that's great. Smile

"Mountains of data". That's great too. Bust out the mountains of data then, there are some smart people on this board who respect data. This ain't personal and you owned your man crush which in my mind is a good Jazz fan attribute. I'm a little bit afloat because I don't have one on any Jazz player at the moment because top to bottom they are pissing me off and playing hard to get though I kinda think of Kanter as my 8th grade crush and he is going to be a bonafide stud in high school and only I saw it coming Wink

Boy Kanter sure has been looking better the last couple games hasn't he? Be interesting to see how he does with more minutes if Favors is going to be out for a few games.

Anyways, time to finnish this off, and start pouring out the data...

Just to being it up to speed, we have the following major points which I firmly disagree with:

1) Jefferson is a more reliably efficient scorer than Millsap
2) Millsap is more prone to have lapses of "ineffective" play than the average player, has extended lapses every season, and his other numbers drop (steals, rebounds, blocks) during these times.
3) Jefferson is better than Millsap in clutch situations

DATA

First of all an explanation of the numbers,

Points per game and FG% = self explanitory.
TS% = Total Shooting percentage, this takes into consideration the fact that 3's are worth more and FT's aren't part of FG%
PPP = Points per Possession, this is like total shooting percentage only it also accounts for turnovers, assuming that half of all turnovers come when a player is attempting to score (roughly) and counting them as shot attempts. I included this one specifically to give credit to Jefferson for his low turnover rate.

Point 1) Offenseive Ability.

This is a very convenient point for me to make now because the last two games have perfectly illustrated this, but lets talk Macro.

Here is a listing of Points per game, FG%, TS%, and PPP for Millsap and Jefferson over the past 3 years

Points per Game
Year - Jefferson Millsap
12-13 16.6 14.2
11-12 19.2 16.6
10-11 18.6 17.3

FG%
Year - Jefferson Millsap
12-13 0.474 0.458
11-12 0.492 0.495
10-11 0.496 0.531

TS%
Year - Jefferson Millsap
12-13 0.514 0.538
11-12 0.520 0.545
10-11 0.528 0.578

PPP
Year - Jefferson Millsap
12-13 0.987 0.995
11-12 1.011 1.030
10-11 1.019 1.087

So what does that show? It shows that when you look at the sum total of these two players work, you are going to get more points if you give the ball to Paul Millsap than you will if you give it to Al Jefferson.

Verdict: The data is conclusive, over the course of a season Jefferson is NOT a more efficient or reliable offensive player than Millsap.



Point 2) Lapses. This is interesting, because how do you quantify it, and more importantly how do you compare one player to another? The best way would be with colorful charts and graphs, but I'm not going to put in that kind of effort, so lets just look at some monthly splits and see what we can see.

The easy stats to pull are FG%, PTS, REB, and AST, so lets look at those over the previous two seasons

10-11
Stat - Average - Best (Mo) - Worst (Mo)
FG% - 0.53 - 0.56 (Mar) - 0.49 (Jan)
PTS - 17.3 - 19.2 (Feb) - 15.5 (Jan)
REB - 7.6 - 8.5 (Feb) - 7.0 (Dec)
AST - 2.5 - 3.0 (Mar) - 1.6 (Dec)
Min - 34.3 - 36.0 (Mar) - 32.0 (Jan)


11-12
Stat - Average - Best (Mo) - Worst (Mo)
FG% - 0.495 - .543 (Jan) - .452 (Feb)
PTS - 16.6 - 18.1 (Jan) - 13.8 (Feb)
REB - 8.8 - 9.4 (Jan) - 8.5 (Mar)
AST - 2.3 - 2.7 (Mar) - 2.1 (Jan)
Min - 32.8 - 37.2 (Apr) - 30.1 (Feb)

I know those are kind of tough to read, but what you see there if you look real hard is that it is clear that Millsap has gone through a "slump" mid season over the last couple years, but those are also the months were he plays the fewest minutes, if you adjust the numbers to per minute rather than per game you would see that the "slumps" are even less significant. Furthermore, Millsap maintains or increases his production in rebounds and assists per minute when his FG% and points per game drop, and a quick look through the spits shows similar results for Blocks and Steals.

So how does that compare?

Well lets take a quick look at a Player widely heralded for his consistency, Al Jefferson.

10-11
Stat - Average - Best (Mo) - Worst (Mo)
FG% - 0.496 - .55 (Feb) - .46 (Dec)
PTS - 18.6 - 23.8 (Feb) - 16.4 (Jan)
REB - 9.7 - 11.6 (Mar) - 8.7 (Nov)
AST - 1.8 - 2.2 (Mar) - 1.3 (Jan)
Min - 35.9 - 33.1 (Jan) - 38.4 (Feb)


11-12
Stat - Average - Best (Mo) - Worst (Mo)
FG% - 0.492 - .53 (Mar) - 0.48 (Apr)
PTS - 19.2 - 21.4 (Mar) - 18.7 (Jan)
REB - 9.6 - 10.2 (Apr) - 9.1 (Jan)
AST - 2.2 - 2.4 (Feb) - 1.8 (Jan)
Min - 34 - 36.2 (Apr) - 32.7 (Feb)

Again, kind f tough to read, but what you see from Jefferson is that he actually kind of has the opposite situation from Millsap. Instead of putting up a bunch of above average months and then a stinker or two, Jefferson will put up a bunch of slightly below average months and then have one or two really good ones. Interesting to note though, that while Millsaps minutes generally went down in the months that he didn't shoot well, Jeffersons did not, and adjusting the numbers to per minute rather than per game actually makes Jefferson's consistency look worse rather than better.

Verdict: I'd say the notion of Millsaps inconsistency is at the very least overblown, if it exists at all, relative to his peers. This is shown my the fact that Jefferson is little better, if at all better, in terms of consistency, but it is a small sample and I'm not going to put any more work into proving that so lets say it was inconclusive. Without question the notion that the other parts of Millsaps game suffer during his "slumps" is false based on the data.



Point 3) Clutch Performance.

82Games.com and NBA.com both keep Clutch performance numbers, I will use 82Games.com numbers here. Here is the clutch production for the two of them for the last 3 seasons, numbers are given per minute of clutch time.

eFG = takes into account that 3's are worth more than 2's

12-13
Millsap - 66% FG, 80% eFG, 46 points.
Jefferson - 50% FG, 53% eFG, 33 Points

11-12
Millsap - 42% FG, 44% eFG, 23.3 Points
Jefferson - 44% FG, 44% eFG, 25.6 Points

10-11
Millsap - 51% FG, 53% eFG, 26.7 Points
Jefferson - 56% FG, 56% eFG, 34.9 Points


Verdict: Both of these guys are good in the clutch, really good in fact. 2010-2011 Jefferson had the clear advantage, but last year and this year Millsap has been equal or better, and that is a pretty big sample, so right now you can't say that Jefferson is better scoring in the clutch than Millsap.


So there you have it, enough data to make you question everything you believe about Millsap and Jefferson.

I have been arguing for a while now that in terms of overall helping a team win the two of these guys are not that far apart, and that most of the basketball related reasons people give for one being better than the other are crap. They each have strengths and weaknesses that make them poor candidates to be "foundational" players, but those same things make them outstanding complimentary players in the right situation, and they each contribute similar overall value in spite of the fact that they do it in vastly different ways.

I have three main things that make me think Millsap is better for the Jazz, and none of them have anything to do with him being a "better" player than Jefferson. One, he is and will always be cheaper; two, he's still effective when he isn't the focus of the offense (the same CANNOT be said for Jefferson); and three, I love the hell out of the way the guy plays the game.

So there you have it, a mountain, just like you asked for.

More like mountains of BS to prove a point showing stats that TRY to convince ppl that Millsap is more valuable than Big Al. I guess the Jazz brass and NBA executivesare dumb to overpay Jefferson when they can get Sap for half his price. Keep pushing Sap and enjoy .500 ball buddy. He doesn't create miss-matches. He isn't outstanding at anything except trying hard. He's a great 6th man but not a difference-maker as a starter.
Question ..are you smarter than NBA executives that offer Jefferson more money?????
More homework ... come up with a mountain of data to show that Jefferson deserves a bigger contract ....that he'll get. I dare you to be objective.

I triple dog dare ya
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Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 EmptyWed Dec 05, 2012 11:21 am

Games are not stats.
You can be the most important dude of a game and at the end of it your stat sheet can look like $h|t. OTOH you can get a good line when you actually were a death body in the clutch and your team lost the game.
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Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Gasol for Millsap?   Gasol for Millsap? - Page 2 Empty

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