No Trades...Moving on!

Before the season started I thought this was a 48 win team, and I thought they could realistically get 50 wins. Right now, at 31-24, 50 wins is actually still a possibility but seems like a long shot as it would require the Jazz to finish out the season 19-8. More realistically the Jazz could win enough games finish 6th in the western conference and let them avoid a first round matchup against the Thunder or Spurs. So let’s take a look at how things might go.

Schedule:
-14 home games, 13 road games,
-15 games against teams over .500,
-16 games against the Western Conference,
-9 of their games against likely playoff teams are on the road, 7 are at home,

One thing I that I think is important to note is that the 15 games against teams over .500 is a little misleading. The Jazz also have 5 games against what I consider dangerous fringe playoff contenders, they play the Bucks in Milwaukee, Dallas twice, and Portland twice, so if you take those into account they really only have 6 or 7 “no-excuses” games that should go in the W column (which they have a tradition of blowing). Still, that is not a bad schedule overall, but it is definitely tougher than the Rockets and Warriors who both play more home games against easier teams than the Jazz.

So what will it take make the playoffs? What about 6th or better?
Right now I think 44 wins probably gets you into the playoffs, 48 wins gets you 6th place or better.

If you look at the teams fighting to get in (Lakers, Mavericks, Trailblazers) they all have 29 loses and schedules very similar to the Jazz. With the easiest schedule and their talent the Lakers are the prohibitive favorites to make a run and get in, but they will have to be a full 4 games better than Houston, 5 games better than the Jazz, and 6 games better than GS to get in. That means if the Jazz finish the season just playing basically .500 basketball and going 13-14 in their remaining games they hit 44 wins and the Lakers would have to finish 19-8 (Jazz own the tiebreaker) to take our spot. That’s not impossible for a team with that much talent, but it seems impossible for that team.

The 6th spot is tougher. Right now Houston is actually the team the computers are picking to get the 6th spot, and predicting that they win 48 games. With a fairly easy schedule and a talented team that is a legitimate threat to beat anybody in the NBA on any given night the computer sims pass the eye test, but the sims are also skewed by recent blowout wins and there are two wild cards that could impact them. They are young, REALY young, with that youth comes inconsistency, and they turned over their roster in a pretty big way at the trade deadline. The Rockets will have to overcome that and finish the year 18-8 to get to 48 wins, I’d say that’s possible, but is probably the ceiling for what they could do. The Warriors have been struggling to integrate Bogut back into the lineup, but it could just be a matter of time before they return to their earlier season form. They will have to go 17-11 to get to 48 wins, and that is not too far off of their current win percentage, so if they can get it together they can definitely make that, but they have to get it together in a hurry because time is running out.

Now that we know what we have, it’s fair to ask the question, what do we really have?

I’d argue that despite a decent record the Jazz have actually been underperforming, and given the very promising play in recent games against the Thunder and Warriors and the imminent return of Mo Williams at PG I’d say they are beginning to find their true form. If you compare the players individual performance this year vs their careers and specifically against last year you can see quickly that almost across the board the veterans have been below their previous production. Marvin, Mo, Foye, and to a lesser extent Al and Paul are all down from last year. But here’s the important part, they have all (except Mo) been trending up for the last few weeks, even Marvin. In stats they call that “trending towards the mean” and I really think our vets are settling into that groove and delivering what they are capable of, which for most of them is better than what they were bringing earlier in the season. Couple that with the predictable and sustainable improved play from our young players and my conclusion is that the maddeningly infrequent games, like the one we had against the Thunder and the door to door win against the Warriors, where we look like a team that could actually win a playoff series, are not a random outlier but rather glimpses into the full potential of the team. To get to 48 wins they have to finnish 17-10, I think that is doable for htis squad, in fact I think they can win 18, take the 6th seed, and make a nice showing in the playoffs.

I'm excited to watch the rest of the season!

I thought I heard somewhere that Utah has gone 14-6 in their last 20 games, is that right?? Seems about right if you think about it. They beat some good teams too. Thats really freaking impressive, with a team that starts Tinsley and Mo has been down.

I look at it the way though, more that this team has been playing up to expectations, but high expectations. They've been playing well.
It seems to me, that Burks is REALLY settling into his own Foye is staying consistent from outside, Al is getting his, and Paul has not been anything close to a funk. The PG play has been good, keeping turnovers down, playing smart. Corbin has kept on starting Marv, but overall, it's been the other guys that have turning it on. There's been a good continuity thing going on with Burks/Foye, Fav/Paul, Kanter/Fav and Tinsley/Al. Guys that have found a rhythm playing with and off each other. Add Gordon to any one of those combo's and it's only an asset.

Most exciting, is every year for the past two, Gordo has gotten better as the season goes on. If his first game back last game, is any indicator, then he's ready to roll. Kanter/Fav/Burks all can be assumed to keep it up and only get better not worse as we go. The key is Corbin keeping with getting Burks minutes. I still complain about Marv over DC, but it seems like a lost cause. Sadly, I'll just say it, but if Marv were to go down with an injury, I think this team would explode with a burst of DC and we would jump out in the first quarter burying teams.

There's no reason to think that Utah can't sustain this type of play. Maybe not 14-6, which is pretty close to going 19-8, but expecting them to go 17-10 is more than realistic. Personally, I see them going 12-2 at home. That just leaves 7 games out of the 13 on the road and there you go, 50 win season. My realistic guess would be 18-9 to finish, but I'm only a hair away from picking them to go 19-8.

Combine that with GS continuing to drop which I do see continuing (Curry injury MORE than likely) and I think it ends up Utah/Houston fighting for that 6th spot. Houston is young, but Harden is SOOO ball dominant, and when he's not Lin is. Those two make all the decisions, and with Parsons out there and Delfino on the wing, they're a scary team. I think TRob just walked in a perfect situation, and he's got to be elated. He'll get a double double every night. Lakers? Kobe just blew it guaranteeing they make the playoffs. They're done, say hello to Dallas as you both fight for 9th in meaningless games at the end of the season.

Utah/Houston/GS, 6/7/8 seeds.

Somehow the Lakers will find a way to get into it. I hope they do and take the Warriors spot. Karma has to kick some GS a$$es

That said, I agree that:
- most jazzmen seems to be evolving nicely as season goes down the stretch
- it's impressive to play Tinsley/Watson at the PG spot and still win games at a decent pace (I have to admit Watson has been doing well since returning from injury)
- Wheeler apparently found a way to put his pants on and to be fu... assertive
- Burks has the real attitude, if he continues to be consistent dude can be really, really good
- Al and Paul have been playing very well and they deserved not to be traded just for "assets"

And overall I think Coach did a very good job.

Lets see what happen; this thing can still go either way...

Clearly, the O'Connor/Lindsey team went into the trade deadline with an idea of what they would consider a "good deal", and when such a deal was not forthcoming, they stayed strong.

Would have been nice to steal a star and a couple of picks, but that's placing your hopes on other teams' GMs being stupid. Which is not a bad hand to hold, most years, but if nobody tards out and succumbs to owner/press/fan pressure to "MAKE A MOVE!!", you don't then tard out yourself.

Glad to see them sticking with this team anyway. We might (for ONCE) be rounding into top shape at the end of the year.

Also, re: Burks. I think it's true what I heard about him before he was drafted. He is doghead stubborn in his belief that he is going to be a star and will NEVER give up the effort to achieve that status. Right or wrong, love the attitude.

I'm pretty positive on the 2nd half. The offense has been growing in leaps and bounds. We are seeing options now! Hayward finally showed up and seems to have more confidence than ever. He looks like he wants to take the reigns. Favors and Kanter are really starting to put the hurt on opposing 2nd units, and continuing to hurt the starters when their benches can't take any more pounding. Carroll is doing good things and has been playing very well within the offense.

They're looking like a team that wants to peak. I'm holding my breath for a 5th-4th seed. Considering Memphis has not played many road games and GSW can't get out of their own way, I think it's possible. Looooong shot but possible.

Trollificus wrote:

We might (for ONCE) be rounding into top shape at the end of the year.

No doubt! I can't even remember the last time the Jazz came on strong at the end of the season, it usually is the painful opposite. Anyone remember how the flow went when we made the WCF's with Dwilly? As I recall the Jazz kinda over-achieved in that run, so at least it has been done once in the post StockMalone era!

So...I am still too butt hurt by these other Jazz fade experiences for me to get on the believer wagon for this year, that they will change their ways, win the "OMG, you HAVE to beat that crappy team" without fail, when experiencing a loss make sure it was a hard fought battle to the horn, (show some damn pride, no shitty body english when getting behind like they have done far too often this season), and start beating some playoff bound teams on the road. Clippers a nice test of the system tomorrow. My dream is the young guys, GH and Burks especially, just keep on showing large leaps - that there could go a long way.

MTJazz wrote:

No doubt! I can't even remember the last time the Jazz came on strong at the end of the season, it usually is the painful opposite. Anyone remember how the flow went when we made the WCF's with Dwilly? As I recall the Jazz kinda over-achieved in that run, so at least it has been done once in the post StockMalone era!

Pretty strong indictment of from Malone where I sit. Don't think a history refresher is really relevant here, but I'll give it anyway. S&M competed against one of the toughest NBA lines ever. Just today I read commentary about the Jazz team being arguably the toughest team The Jordan ever faced .. and Malone had his worst game...

Since then the Jazz have continued to have good runs in the playoffs. That D-W WCF run wasn't as much overachieving as it was luck, thank you GST. The 8th seed beating poundOneDallas aside, the Fisher charge is what I saw making that series. Jazz overachieved period. Next year they beat Houston against all odds. Personally, I ran my old ass out into the freezing streets in socks, pissing off all the neighbors. Steal!!!

I've never seen the Jazz fizzling out at the deadline, other than maybe the last crap season. That's respect to the organization & respect for Corbin this season for sticking to his season game plan. Structure.

Professo_Sloan wrote:

MTJazz wrote:

No doubt! I can't even remember the last time the Jazz came on strong at the end of the season, it usually is the painful opposite. Anyone remember how the flow went when we made the WCF's with Dwilly? As I recall the Jazz kinda over-achieved in that run, so at least it has been done once in the post StockMalone era!

Pretty strong indictment of from Malone where I sit. Don't think a history refresher is really relevant here, but I'll give it anyway. S&M competed against one of the toughest NBA lines ever. Just today I read commentary about the Jazz team being arguably the toughest team The Jordan ever faced .. and Malone had his worst game...

Since then the Jazz have continued to have good runs in the playoffs. That D-W WCF run wasn't as much overachieving as it was luck, thank you GST. The 8th seed beating poundOneDallas aside, the Fisher charge is what I saw making that series. Jazz overachieved period. Next year they beat Houston against all odds. Personally, I ran my old ass out into the freezing streets in socks, pissing off all the neighbors. Steal!!!

I've never seen the Jazz fizzling out at the deadline, other than maybe the last crap season. That's respect to the organization & respect for Corbin this season for sticking to his season game plan. Structure.

I think you are right about the first year being lucky more than about overachieving, but don't forget they beat Houston that year as well. I think Jazz fans also forget that one of the main reasons the Jazz seemed to slump at the end of those seasons was injuries.

I also think that Jazz fans don't fully appreciate how good the D-Will/Boozer era Jazz were. I'd argue that (rather than being lucky against the Rockets) the Jazz where the second best team in the Western conference playoffs the next year (2007-2008), loosing a really tough series to the Lakers in 6 games after beating a really good Rockets team that actually had a healthy Yao and T-mac. Boozers infamous hammy and an injury to Okur late in the season derailed 2008-2009, and in 2009-2010 the Jazz remained in the playoff hunt, and won in the first round, in spite of playing through more injuries than I've ever seen a Jazz team have.

To me it is a story about what might have been more than anything. 2007-2009 where the only years we saw that team healthy in the playoffs, and they looked REALLY good, after that they were never 100% at playoff time again.

TheMagnus wrote:

Professo_Sloan wrote:

MTJazz wrote:

No doubt! I can't even remember the last time the Jazz came on strong at the end of the season, it usually is the painful opposite. Anyone remember how the flow went when we made the WCF's with Dwilly? As I recall the Jazz kinda over-achieved in that run, so at least it has been done once in the post StockMalone era!

Pretty strong indictment of from Malone where I sit. Don't think a history refresher is really relevant here, but I'll give it anyway. S&M competed against one of the toughest NBA lines ever. Just today I read commentary about the Jazz team being arguably the toughest team The Jordan ever faced .. and Malone had his worst game...

Since then the Jazz have continued to have good runs in the playoffs. That D-W WCF run wasn't as much overachieving as it was luck, thank you GST. The 8th seed beating poundOneDallas aside, the Fisher charge is what I saw making that series. Jazz overachieved period. Next year they beat Houston against all odds. Personally, I ran my old ass out into the freezing streets in socks, pissing off all the neighbors. Steal!!!

I've never seen the Jazz fizzling out at the deadline, other than maybe the last crap season. That's respect to the organization & respect for Corbin this season for sticking to his season game plan. Structure.

I think you are right about the first year being lucky more than about overachieving, but don't forget they beat Houston that year as well. I think Jazz fans also forget that one of the main reasons the Jazz seemed to slump at the end of those seasons was injuries.

I also think that Jazz fans don't fully appreciate how good the D-Will/Boozer era Jazz were. I'd argue that (rather than being lucky against the Rockets) the Jazz where the second best team in the Western conference playoffs the next year (2007-2008), loosing a really tough series to the Lakers in 6 games after beating a really good Rockets team that actually had a healthy Yao and T-mac. Boozers infamous hammy and an injury to Okur late in the season derailed 2008-2009, and in 2009-2010 the Jazz remained in the playoff hunt, and won in the first round, in spite of playing through more injuries than I've ever seen a Jazz team have.

To me it is a story about what might have been more than anything. 2007-2009 where the only years we saw that team healthy in the playoffs, and they looked REALLY good, after that they were never 100% at playoff time again.

And, to boot, weren't the Jazz (w/ Dallas) favored to win the West in 07/08? Wasn't that the year the Lakers traded for Pao Gasol and pissed all us Jazz fans off?

And, yes, there were a few D-Will haters, and tons of Boozer haters in the Jazz TribTalk crowd-- so, it's not surprising that some underestimate how good we were that year.

TheMagnus wrote:

I also think that Jazz fans don't fully appreciate how good the D-Will/Boozer era Jazz were. I'd argue that (rather than being lucky against the Rockets) the Jazz where the second best team in the Western conference playoffs the next year (2007-2008), loosing a really tough series to the Lakers in 6 games after beating a really good Rockets team that actually had a healthy Yao and T-mac. Boozers infamous hammy and an injury to Okur late in the season derailed 2008-2009, and in 2009-2010 the Jazz remained in the playoff hunt, and won in the first round, in spite of playing through more injuries than I've ever seen a Jazz team have.

To me it is a story about what might have been more than anything. 2007-2009 where the only years we saw that team healthy in the playoffs, and they looked REALLY good, after that they were never 100% at playoff time again.

I had the years mixed up. Nobody wanted to play 7 foot 6 in 2006-07. Box score doesn't show it but IMO Memo did a pretty damn good job slowing Yao down when he was playing his best ever basketball. That was an incredible victory without home court advantage.

The fact that the Jazz couldn't take down the Celtics, a middle-of-the-road EC playoff team, at home, suddenly soured my barely emerging optimism with respect to the Jazz season close out. Plus running across these two factoids:

1) Jazz have beat only ONE team over 0.500 team on the road this year, (Nets when they were struggling). ONE!
2) Jazz have the 8th toughest strength of schedule in the league for the rest of the year.

Adding 1 plus 8 = a 9th seed. On the other hand, 8-1 could equal the 7th seed? Sure as hell the Jazz have to defend the home court the rest of the way and start beating some playoff teams both at home and on the road. I'm not at all convinced the Jazz can suddenly overcome their season-long road problems, no matter who starts or how studly GH plays.

MTJazz wrote:

The fact that the Jazz couldn't take down the Celtics, a middle-of-the-road EC playoff team, at home, suddenly soured my barely emerging optimism with respect to the Jazz season close out. Plus running across these two factoids:

1) Jazz have beat only ONE team over 0.500 team on the road this year, (Nets when they were struggling). ONE!
2) Jazz have the 8th toughest strength of schedule in the league for the rest of the year.

Adding 1 plus 8 = a 9th seed. On the other hand, 8-1 could equal the 7th seed? Sure as hell the Jazz have to defend the home court the rest of the way and start beating some playoff teams both at home and on the road. I'm not at all convinced the Jazz can suddenly overcome their season-long road problems, no matter who starts or how studly GH plays.

Ya, it's interesting because I am ready to make excuses for the Jazz in that loss against Boston, The celtics played like it was a "must win" game for them, they got some bad breaks down the stretch, etc. etc. blah blah...

But the bottom line is that loss really lowered my confidence in the Jazz. Two games ago I was looking at the schedule and feeling confident that the Jazz controlled their destiny and that they would bring this home, now I look at their tough sechedule and the realively easy schedules of the other playoff contenders and it scares the crap out of me.

The good news is that these two losses didn't change much in the overall playoff picture, GS, Houston and LA all lost thier last game, the Jazz are still only two games out of 6th, and the Lakers still have to be 5 games better than the Jazz going forward to take our spot.

Man, I dont have any lowered confidence in the Jazz, they can compete with just about anyone. After that loss to Boston, it lowered my confidence in Corbin even more. Though I didn't think it was possible.

The team has to be put in the best position to succeed, and Corbins move to start Earl and then mess up the starting unit that way, of course backfired. And then also not playing the players that needed to be played, made it even tougher. DC etc would have helped the team, so that the struggle was so hard.

If he would play the players that should be played, we wouldn't be down by 3 or struggling back and forth with a 1 pt game. We'd stay up by 3, or 4 etc. But instead, it's an uphill battle all the time. Corbin makes all these games an uphill battle.