Who Wins the O'Brien Trophy?

Can't believe no one has posted this yet...

My half-assed guess - Spurs in 6 games.

Why? Spurs are better than the Pacers, more balanced and better coached. Heat haven't had to contend with any team in the east who have a lightening fast MVPish PG for one, a post guy like Timmy D for 2, and an explosive Manu-gizer scorer who will kill you from the wing or drive. Plus, the Spurs can and do play every bit as physical as the Pacers and the Spurs team D is roughly comparable. And, unlike the Spurs, with the Pacers the Heat didn't have to contend with a team who could kill them over the top if they over-rotated in the paint. The Spurs are masters at floor spread and penetrate/score or kickout with Parker at the helm and interior to exterior passing. And finally, the Spurs are just plain deeper and clearly better rested. You know they are going to go at the Heat like banshees, run their tired asses off.

Heat in 7.

Lebron asserts himself to the top of the pack. Again.

TheMagnus wrote:

Heat in 7.

Lebron asserts himself to the top of the pack. Again.

I have huge respect for LeBron's game but in my book the series swings on what they get out of Bosh and Wade, and they proved in the Pacers series they are suddenly wildcards. Both are playing hurt and you know Pop is going to put hard fouls and bodies on them. LeBron is going to get his, no question. Spurs make life hell on Wade and Bosh and it is definitely Spurs in 6!

PS. Not surpisingly your view of the series outcome is copacetic with all the odds makers. But you know what? I think this "LeBron is God" thing is overrated and near as I can tell I'm the only agnostic. Funny how all the "experts" are Heat in 7 games - which means, "too close to call but I'm on the LeBron bandwagon but if I'm wrong it was still smart". I"m going contrarian on this one, (Vegas odds 1:12 spurs in six). Spurs are too good and too rested, everyone is drinking the Kool-aid with the Heat. I'll eat my prediction if wrong, but right now I'm thinking this whole Heat hype and LeBron-is-God is going to meet a sudden come down.

Heat in 7. Why? Because David Stern has ordained it.

I actually go Spurs in 6.
Lebron is as amazing as they all say.

BUT. It was shown that Lebron cannot do it all on his own. And the Spurs are better in every facet than the Pacers are at playing the Heat the same way. And that series went 7.....

TD and Pop go out on top.

Spurs in 6

Spurs in 5

James is awesome, but the rest of the team is lackluster and Wade's high minutes and age are really starting to show.

I'm picking spurs in 5....no 6.....no 5.....ok, spurs in 6.

Damn, what a great Game 1. Could have gone either way but credit SA for stealing it on the road. Even though games went off for a triple double, I think Kahwi did an awesome job limiting him on the scoring front - played him as well as ANYONE has all playoffs. And Parker, man, that performance was special.

Go Spurs!

Was I the only one watching and thinking, "Man, the Jazz are soooo far from this level?" Both those teams are well-oiled machines, both relied on dominant performances by superstars and a pretty seamless supporting cast.

MTJazz wrote:

Damn, what a great Game 1. Could have gone either way but credit SA for stealing it on the road. Even though games went off for a triple double, I think Kahwi did an awesome job limiting him on the scoring front - played him as well as ANYONE has all playoffs. And Parker, man, that performance was special.

Go Spurs!

Was I the only one watching and thinking, "Man, the Jazz are soooo far from this level?" Both those teams are well-oiled machines, both relied on dominant performances by superstars and a pretty seamless supporting cast.

It was a great game, these two teams are a great great matchup, and that last sequence by Parker was incredible.

I remember watching the finals last year and thinking that was some of the most unwatchable basketball I had ever seen. I think this series has the potential to be one of the all time classics.

I heard the announcers talking about how the Spurs need to "ugly up the game" to beat the Heat. That's what lesser coaches coaching lesser teams do, and all I can say is thank goodness it is the Spurs that we get to watch in this finals.

To your point about the Jazz... ya, we're a good 5 years away from that level, if we ever reach it, but as a Jazz fan I find the prospect of where we are now super exciting. At the very least it won't be long before we have a really good team to watch again, which is more than a lot of fans can say with confidence.

Mutangclan wrote:

I actually go Spurs in 6.
Lebron is as amazing as they all say.

BUT. It was shown that Lebron cannot do it all on his own. And the Spurs are better in every facet than the Pacers are at playing the Heat the same way. And that series went 7.....

TD and Pop go out on top.

Man, I dont mind a bit looking at these teams and comparing them to my team the Jazz. The Spurs have been doing this for a looooooong time. Continuity is almost a forgotten thing on this team, it's so second nature at this point. Miami is the opposite, just supreme athletes for the most part imposing their will. Utah has building blocks, and if.....WHEN our core 5 plus one are still together in 5 years, we're going to win games simply because even when teams know what we want to do, they still can't stop it.

Yea, what a great game, and agree Mag that this could be one of the greatest. The one team with amazing athletes etc, and the other most fundamental "you can't stop what we want to do" team going head to head. What a perfect contrast, and I'm actually watching the Finals, first time in years.

Other thing, seems Kenny Smith and I agree. He said after the game last night that the Spurs are the Indiana Pacers with Tony Parker. Bout sums it up. Sticking with Spurs in 6.

Due to stupid final's format I think Spurs in 6 is almost impossible to happen. I think it will be Spurs in 5. They are just to well coached and too good for Miami. They expose their weaknesses like no other team ( maybe healthy Bulls with Rose could do that as well). And they won first game on the road while missing bunch of wide open threes and some layups. If they shoot at least decent ( not spectacular ) Heat are done. Which is good thing.

Mutangclan wrote:

Mutangclan wrote:

I actually go Spurs in 6.
Lebron is as amazing as they all say.

BUT. It was shown that Lebron cannot do it all on his own. And the Spurs are better in every facet than the Pacers are at playing the Heat the same way. And that series went 7.....

TD and Pop go out on top.

Man, I dont mind a bit looking at these teams and comparing them to my team the Jazz. The Spurs have been doing this for a looooooong time. Continuity is almost a forgotten thing on this team, it's so second nature at this point. Miami is the opposite, just supreme athletes for the most part imposing their will. Utah has building blocks, and if.....WHEN our core 5 plus one are still together in 5 years, we're going to win games simply because even when teams know what we want to do, they still can't stop it.

Yea, what a great game, and agree Mag that this could be one of the greatest. The one team with amazing athletes etc, and the other most fundamental "you can't stop what we want to do" team going head to head. What a perfect contrast, and I'm actually watching the Finals, first time in years.

Other thing, seems Kenny Smith and I agree. He said after the game last night that the Spurs are the Indiana Pacers with Tony Parker. Bout sums it up. Sticking with Spurs in 6.

A lot of this just reminds me of Stockton and Malone in their primes. Everyone in the world knew EXACTLY what was coming...but they just couldn't stop it.

Do the Spurs make amends for the inexplicable crumble in tonight's Game 3?

Gotta say, Game 2 was in fact a pretty impressive assertion of athletic dominance by the Heat to run the Spurs out of the building in the 4th. No one said they were not a good team. But I also don't see the Spurs shooting so poorly and turning the ball over so much in Game 3 - in which case the Heat's dominant run would have made the game close coming back from 16 points down. I think we see the Spurs very comfortable tonight on the home floor. And hopefully Ginobili remembers how to dribble again...

MTJazz wrote:

Gotta say, Game 2 was in fact a pretty impressive assertion of athletic dominance by the Heat to run the Spurs out of the building in the 4th. .

Gotta say, Game 3 was in fact a pretty impressive assertion of teamwork dominance by the Spurs to run the Heat out of the building in the second half. Despite impressive shooting by Green and Neal it is K.Leonard who is finals MVP for me so far. And to think we could have had him.... Go Spurs, two more please!

Calgary Jazz wrote:

MTJazz wrote:

Gotta say, Game 2 was in fact a pretty impressive assertion of athletic dominance by the Heat to run the Spurs out of the building in the 4th.  .

Gotta say, Game 3 was in fact a pretty impressive assertion of teamwork dominance by the Spurs to run the Heat out of the building in the second half.  Despite impressive shooting by Green and Neal it is K.Leonard  who is finals MVP for me so far. And to think we could have had him.... Go Spurs, two more please!

I was just thinking the same thing about Leonard, who is rapidly becoming one of my favorite players in the league.  There is no showboating with him; nothing real flashy about him, but he makes key play after key play to help his team win, and it is all accomplished with a steady composure that belies his 21 years young.  About a month ago on one of these threads, I knicknamed him The Little Fundamental.

Crunchtime1 wrote:

Calgary Jazz wrote:

MTJazz wrote:

Gotta say, Game 2 was in fact a pretty impressive assertion of athletic dominance by the Heat to run the Spurs out of the building in the 4th.  .

Gotta say, Game 3 was in fact a pretty impressive assertion of teamwork dominance by the Spurs to run the Heat out of the building in the second half.  Despite impressive shooting by Green and Neal it is K.Leonard  who is finals MVP for me so far. And to think we could have had him.... Go Spurs, two more please!

I was just thinking the same thing about Leonard, who is rapidly becoming one of my favorite players in the league.  There is no showboating with him; nothing real flashy about him, but he makes play after play to help his team win, and it is all accomplished with a steady composure that belies his 21 years young.  About a month ago on one of these threads, I knicknamed him The Little Fundamental.

I've loved Leonard from his days at San Diego St.  I thought he would be the best NBA player to come out of the conference (yes, better than Jimmer), that he was a top 10 talent, and was blown away when the Jazz passed on him at 12.  If the TribTalk was still around I'd dig up where I was including him on my short list of players the Jazz should consider with the Nets pick (#6) before they drew out for the #3.   I honestly couldn't believe that 15 teams passed on him, including the Pacers who traded the pick for George Hill and a second rounder.  

That being said, I think San Antonio is really a perfect situation for him, and falling so far in the draft my have been the best thing that ever happened to him.  Who knows if he would have been so good so fast in another situation.  The Spurs desperately needed help at SF and the coaching, team culture, and system are perfect for his skill set and mentality.

TheMagnus wrote:

That being said, I think San Antonio is really a perfect situation for him, and falling so far in the draft my have been the best thing that ever happened to him.  Who knows if he would have been so good so fast in another situation.  The Spurs desperately needed help at SF and the coaching, team culture, and system are perfect for his skill set and mentality.

Exactly. Leonard in Utah would probably be a totally different player. And if you flip it and put Burks in San Antonio, Alec may look very different as well. In many cases non-star players and especially young players who are not the center of their team, have their worth created more so by their situation than by their skill set IMO.

Still, Leonard has been a great player for the Spurs.

P.S. Tony Parker has an MRI scheduled today on his hamstring.

zero24gravity wrote:

TheMagnus wrote:

That being said, I think San Antonio is really a perfect situation for him, and falling so far in the draft my have been the best thing that ever happened to him.  Who knows if he would have been so good so fast in another situation.  The Spurs desperately needed help at SF and the coaching, team culture, and system are perfect for his skill set and mentality.

Exactly. Leonard in Utah would probably be a totally different player. And if you flip it and put Burks in San Antonio, Alec may look very different as well. In many cases non-star players and especially young players who are not the center of their team, have their worth created more so by their situation than by their skill set IMO.

Still, Leonard has been a great player for the Spurs.

P.S. Tony Parker has an MRI scheduled today on his hamstring.

    I agree that being drafted so late by Spurs was the best thing for Leonard. But I do believe he would have fluorished in Utah as well. When you have such amazing genetic gifts and work ethic ( you rarely hear Pop praising rookies for work ethic so it must be extraordinary) it is bound to happen sooner or later.  I remember watching his prederaft videos and marveling at his huge hands - they are just enormous! He's been a pleasure to watch in these finals, I know if Spurs win it all Duncan will probably get finals MVP, but if it would be up to me I would give it to Leonard so far.

Calgary Jazz wrote:

zero24gravity wrote:

Quote :

Exactly. Leonard in Utah would probably be a totally different player. And if you flip it and put Burks in San Antonio, Alec may look very different as well. In many cases non-star players and especially young players who are not the center of their team, have their worth created more so by their situation than by their skill set IMO.

Still, Leonard has been a great player for the Spurs.

P.S. Tony Parker has an MRI scheduled today on his hamstring.

    I agree that being drafted so late by Spurs was the best thing for Leonard. But I do believe he would have fluorished in Utah as well. When you have such amazing genetic gifts and work ethic ( you rarely hear Pop praising rookies for work ethic so it must be extraordinary) it is bound to happen sooner or later.  I remember watching his prederaft videos and marveling at his huge hands - they are just enormous! He's been a pleasure to watch in these finals, I know if Spurs win it all Duncan will probably get finals MVP, but if it would be up to me I would give it to Leonard so far.

Ya, I agree with you on that.  can you imagine Leonard and Hayward as our starting wings?  Makes me swoon a little.

Leonard has been huge, the real difference maker in the finals.

Just saw a stat that made me laugh... Leonard, Green, and Neal have ouscored Bosh, Wade, and Lebron so far in the finals.  Ya, the Heat are in some serious trouble.  Wade and Bosh aren't elite anymore (if Bosh ever was), Lebron needs to go all Cleveland King James if the Heat are going to have any shot in this series.  The Heat's best lineups are with Lebron at PF and Birdman or Haslem at C surrounded by shooters, but if you are Spolstra how in the hell do you justify sitting two superstars and telling Lebron to just go out and win this thing?  No matter how obvious that solution becomes, I just don't see it happening, and that is why I'm pretty sure I will be wrong, and the Heat will lose.

I actually think this whole series is now much more up in the air because of Parker's tweaked hammy.  No way he will even be close to 75% for the rest of the series, if he even plays tonight in Game 4.  One cannot underestimate his MVP-ish skills and organization/facilitation of the Spurs offense, the key cog.  Plus, LeBron is due a huge-ass game, and Leonard aside, I think tonight will be his night.  The question is, will the Heat get anything from their role players?  If not, SA loses this one.....but....

The Spurs role players, (Neal, Leonard, Green, Splitter) are pretty much having a coming out party.  If they can sustain a high level of play they just might help the team overcome Parker's absence/injured play.  One interesting aspect of tonight's game is now the Heat are going to be ALL OVER and seriously scared of Green and  Neal spotting up behind the arc so of course Pop is going to use them as "decoys", running primary plays for them off of single and double screens.  They get open, they have a green light to shoot.  They are covered, they run the decoy-spread-the-floor then find Timmy or Splitter in the paint, if not Leonard/Manu slashing.  To do that though requires a Parker to get them quickly down the floor to get them into all those time consuming options.  Can't wait to see what both Spol and Pops come up with.  But no doubt, this game will not resemble any of the first three - its a fluid chess match and so far one of the more entertaining finals series in recent memory.

Tonight's game winner...toss-up.  Too many intangibles to call.

MTJazz wrote:

I actually think this whole series is now much more up in the air because of Parker's tweaked hammy.  No way he will even be close to 75% for the rest of the series, if he even plays tonight in Game 4.  One cannot underestimate his MVP-ish skills and organization/facilitation of the Spurs offense, the key cog.  Plus, LeBron is due a huge-ass game, and Leonard aside, I think tonight will be his night.  The question is, will the Heat get anything from their role players?  If not, SA loses this one.....but....

The Spurs role players, (Neal, Leonard, Green, Splitter) are pretty much having a coming out party.  If they can sustain a high level of play they just might help the team overcome Parker's absence/injured play.  One interesting aspect of tonight's game is now the Heat are going to be ALL OVER and seriously scared of Green and  Neal spotting up behind the arc so of course Pop is going to use them as "decoys", running primary plays for them off of single and double screens.  They get open, they have a green light to shoot.  They are covered, they run the decoy-spread-the-floor then find Timmy or Splitter in the paint, if not Leonard/Manu slashing.  To do that though requires a Parker to get them quickly down the floor to get them into all those time consuming options.  Can't wait to see what both Spol and Pops come up with.  But no doubt, this game will not resemble any of the first three - its a fluid chess match and so far one of the more entertaining finals series in recent memory.

Tonight's game winner...toss-up.  Too many intangibles to call.

If Parker is only playing at 75% or less effectiveness when he is on the court, the Spurs are in big trouble.  If he can give them 24 mpg at 85 to 90% effectiveness, they still will likely win the series imho.  I wonder how much going hard risks a real tear of the hamstring?  So far he has a grade 1 hamstring "strain", not a tear.