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 The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012

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PostSubject: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptyWed May 09, 2012 6:01 pm

Alright, here we are at the end of another season. I’ve been working up this post for a while, my apologies for overlapping with some other active threads, but I felt like this didn’t really fit anywhere.
So where are the Jazz at right now, exactly? I’ll try to answer that question here with more detail than you ever thought you wanted. Here’s Part 1 “The Tools”….

Let’s go chronologically…

First up,

NBA CBA, 2012-2013 Salary Cap, and other random notes:

The estimates that I have heard put the NBA salary cap for next season at about $60-61 Million, which puts the Luxury tax around $72 Million.

The Jazz have their full Mid Level Exception (MLE) ($5 Million) available.

The Jazz have a $10.89 Million trade exception from the Okur trade. It cannot be combined with anything, but it can be used on more than one player as long as the player’s salaries add up to less than $10.89 Million. One of the most interesting things about this exception is that it allows the Jazz to do a sign-and-trade with a free agent for that amount, which is what KOC really meant when he said he was “going shopping”. Some people thought he was talking about making another trade, but I think he was really talking about being able to get a free agent(s) they wouldn’t otherwise be able to get under the cap.

The Jazz still have the Amnesty “get-out-of-jail-free” card. This can be used on one player whose current contract was with the team since July 1st 2011. In short, the only players currently on contract that the Jazz CANNOT amnesty are Burks, Kanter, and Watson. The Amnesty provision does not apply to any player that the Jazz will acquire in the future.

The draft:

This has been covered in some detail, so I’ll be brief. The Jazz have a roughly 28% of obtaining the #8 pick in the draft from the Warriors in the Lottery. The #8 pick would be outstanding to have this year, and if the Jazz manage to pick up the pick then I’m sure we will revisit this in detail, but for right now the most likely thing is that the Jazz will only have the 17th pick in the 2nd round (47th overall) . It’s hardly worth talking about prospects in that range, but KOC has done a superb job of mining talent from the second round, so that pick is not worthless.


What we have (Money):

The contracts (against the cap) for the current roster:
Al Jefferson --- $15,000,000
Devin Harris --- $8,500,000
Paul Millsap --- $8,603,633
Derrick Favors --- $4,753,320; $6,008,196-T; (Restricted)
Enes Kanter --- $4,319,280; $4,505,280-T; $5,694,674-T; (Restricted)
Raja Bell --- $3,480,000
Gordon Hayward --- $2,947,800; $3,755,497-T; (Restricted)
Alec Burks --- $2,111,160; $2,202,000-T; $3,034,356-T; (Restricted)
Earl Watson --- $2,000,000
Jamaal Tinsley --- $1,352,181-T
Jeremy Evans --- (Restricted)
DeMarre Carroll --- ~$700,000-T
Josh Howard
C.J. Miles
Blake Ahearn


If the Jazz exercise the options for Tinsley and Carroll the total team salary will be approximately $53.75 Million with 11 players on the Roster.

If the Jazz get the 8th pick in the draft that will add $2.14 Million and bring the roster to 12.


Summary of Assets:


So, heading into this season, what does KOC have to work with?

Well I listed it all above, but let’s summarize…

1) Draft picks. If the Jazz don’t get the Warriors draft pick this year, that becomes a trade asset. Either way, it’s a win for the Jazz. The Jazz also will have their own future first round pick to trade since Minnesota gets in this year.
2) $10.89 Mil Okur Exception. This is the Max amount we have to spend on a free agent. It is also the maximum amount we could take back in a salary dump trade (like the Al Jefferson trade)
3) $6-7 Mil in Cap space. We could sign someone outright for this amount without using the MLE or the Okur exception.
4) Expiring Contracts. The Jazz are loaded with expiring contracts. This is huge, because next season the new tax rules kick in making it EXTREMELY expensive to pay luxury tax, and teams over the tax line with buyer’s remorse from this summer will be looking to unload. The following Players contracts are expiring:
a. Al Jefferson --- $15,000,000
b. Devin Harris --- $8,500,000
c. Paul Millsap --- $8,603,633
d. Raja Bell --- $3,480,000
e. Earl Watson --- $2,000,000


Coming up, Part 2 “Bulding to Win”…

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PostSubject: Re: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptyWed May 09, 2012 8:40 pm

Excellent post.

I believe they will use the amnesty clause on Bell this year. No reason to keep him and pay that 3.4 million. That would give them a little more wiggle room to sign one under the cap plus use the trade exception.

A lot of tools this summer to play with.
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PostSubject: Re: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptyWed May 09, 2012 9:09 pm

Mags, you need to put a little more effort into your posts. Razz

Bell is obviously gone, but the Jazz my be able to trade him for something of use. If not, then I also think it's time to use that amnesty.

I can't imagine using it on anyone else, unless some big time FA (D.Howard/ DWill) decides he wants to come to Utah and the Jazz need the CAP room (Jefferson). Of coarse, the chances of that are almost zero.
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PostSubject: Re: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptyWed May 09, 2012 9:24 pm

If the Amnesty clause doesn't work for future players, you have to use it on Bell. I like where they are at salary wise. They are set up with all their assets to make some good moves without going into the luxury tax. I think you could really look at using the amnesty on Bell and maybe trading Al and Harris. Give Misap an extension and go look for some wings.
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PostSubject: Re: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptyWed May 09, 2012 10:04 pm

Awesome post Mags. From the dregs of disappointment of the sweep to the Spurs the fan eye should turn to next year. This season is over and second-guessing anything on the books is only mental masturbation at this point. And future things according to our analysis so far look promising. And it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize the Jazz as constituted don't suck, it is only a machine and system in need of tweaking and upgrading, and that will be done with the tools and assets you mentioned. Go forth KOC and build the machine that sucks us in yet another season. Surprised
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PostSubject: Re: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptyWed May 09, 2012 11:03 pm

MTJazz wrote:
Awesome post Mags. From the dregs of disappointment of the sweep to the Spurs the fan eye should turn to next year. This season is over and second-guessing anything on the books is only mental masturbation at this point. And future things according to our analysis so far look promising. And it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize the Jazz as constituted don't suck, it is only a machine and system in need of tweaking and upgrading, and that will be done with the tools and assets you mentioned. Go forth KOC and build the machine that sucks us in yet another season. Surprised

That's the second best kind!
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PostSubject: Re: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptyWed May 09, 2012 11:16 pm

Romoholic wrote:
If the Amnesty clause doesn't work for future players, you have to use it on Bell. I like where they are at salary wise. They are set up with all their assets to make some good moves without going into the luxury tax. I think you could really look at using the amnesty on Bell and maybe trading Al and Harris. Give Misap an extension and go look for some wings.

The amnesty clause assures that bell will no longer hurt the jazz. If they cannot trade him, then they amnesty him. I said in a previous post, they were at about 53 mil like mags said. Take him out and they are very close to 50 mil. They still have to pay him the 3.4 mil, but he does not go against the cap.

Everybody keeps talking about trading Jefferson. Here is my question to everybody else though. Who wants Jefferson for 15 mil? I realize, he has an expiring contract, but I dont see much interest coming Utah's way in terms of dealing Jefferson. Remember, the Jazz gave up their first round pick, which was lottery protected. Its not like, Utah gave up a lot to get him. If you think trading Jefferson is easy, I think you are wrong.

Now, Millsap is much easier to trade. His salary is reasonable. Millsap, is not a go to guy, like the Jazz needed him to be at times. However, I think he is a top three glue guy. Now, if you put Millsap on the block, KOC's phone will be ringing off the hook. I like Millsap going forward more, but same thing goes for every other team probably.

Now, before the season, I made a thread Paul George for Millsap. That was before David West signing, so obviously, that would not work now, but if you can get someone like that, do you say no to that, or do you say no to getting little for Jefferson. I really think we are overrating how much the Jazz can get for Jefferson. They are not equal value.
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PostSubject: Re: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptyWed May 09, 2012 11:23 pm

The trade exception could turn out to be big for the Jazz this summer that's a lot of money the could go after a guy like Eric Gordon he would be a nice pick up, I know he has spent a lot of time on the injured list the last few season but the guy has got game. They could make a good run at signing Goran Dragic also with that kind of money there's a lot of way the Jazz could go this summer if O'Conner's can keep his magic going they could very well fill their needs. A wing that's a lights out shooter and a PG who can run the team with the ability to hit shot's out to the 3 line this team becomes as good as any team in the West.
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PostSubject: Re: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptySun May 13, 2012 7:50 am

You know it's interesting, but watching that game last night, I think the Nuggets are the 12-13 Utah Jazz. They dont really have a star at all, just a bunch of really good players that play hard. (love Faried btw) Deep bench, guys that like each other etc. I wonder what they're going to do this off season. I dont think George Karl thinks he has a championship caliber team, so what are they going to do?

With that said, thats what I think Utah will be if they dont make a splash this off season, and sign/trade for a starting player. Thats what we can expect: push a championship contending team to 7 games, but lose. KOC probably sees that, so we're looking at something significant coming our way, NICE.

Paul said yesterday he wants to stay in Utah forever, and I dont have a problem with that for sure. I dont have a problem with Al staying either. But both are expiring, and really feeling like one is going via trade. Who's coming to Utah......????? Dragic, Lin, Nash, Lowry all have many teams talking to them.
Fun times.
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PostSubject: Re: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptySun May 13, 2012 1:50 pm

Mutangclan wrote:
You know it's interesting, but watching that game last night, I think the Nuggets are the 12-13 Utah Jazz. They dont really have a star at all, just a bunch of really good players that play hard. (love Faried btw) Deep bench, guys that like each other etc. I wonder what they're going to do this off season. I dont think George Karl thinks he has a championship caliber team, so what are they going to do?

With that said, thats what I think Utah will be if they dont make a splash this off season, and sign/trade for a starting player. Thats what we can expect: push a championship contending team to 7 games, but lose. KOC probably sees that, so we're looking at something significant coming our way, NICE.

Paul said yesterday he wants to stay in Utah forever, and I dont have a problem with that for sure. I dont have a problem with Al staying either. But both are expiring, and really feeling like one is going via trade. Who's coming to Utah......????? Dragic, Lin, Nash, Lowry all have many teams talking to them.
Fun times.

I like the comparison to the Nuggets. I think that Favors can and will be that superstar player that is seems a team has to have to win it all. If we can pick up a real pg and a couple of shooters we are gonna be scary good.

If the Jazz really have a shot at Nash KOC has to get it done asap. They need this to happen. The Jazz are already ahead of schedule and getting Nash would put us even further ahead.
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PostSubject: Re: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptySun May 13, 2012 8:34 pm

I think for the right team, Big Al might be just the right player. His contract is tough now but maybe not for long.
I love Millsap but his contract might not be right for the Jazz soon, but he would definately be the easiest player on the team to move. Harris is kind of like Big Al, the right team could use him as a combo guard back up PG to a young PG thats learning. I think it might be easier though to bring guys on to the team than get rid of some existing contracts
I would give anything to know some of the offers KOC has had and what he has tried to do over the years.
I really think KOC is one of the best in the league at what he does without having Cuban, Paul Allen money behind him.
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PostSubject: Re: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptyMon Jul 02, 2012 12:02 pm

Cool little tidbit on our Derrick Favors summer: its now down to he and Demarcus Cousins on getting the call up for Team USA since there's so many injuries to now include Anthony Davis. Would be awesome to see DFav swatting shots....
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PostSubject: Re: The State of Jazz Nation: Summer 2012   The State of Jazz Nation:  Summer 2012 EmptyMon Jul 02, 2012 12:30 pm

Mutangclan wrote:
Cool little tidbit on our Derrick Favors summer: its now down to he and Demarcus Cousins on getting the call up for Team USA since there's so many injuries to now include Anthony Davis. Would be awesome to see DFav swatting shots....

I hope they decide on Favors. I can see Cousins doing something stupid and being a huge embarrassment for USA basketball. You have to think the officials will take that into consideration. Not to mention Favors is a better player.
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