20 games in: The State of Jazz Nation

Alright, here we are 1/4 of the way through the season so lets look at where the Jazz stand shall we?

First, the facts...FACTS!!

Currently the Jazz are exactly .500 at 10-10. As of today the Jazz have played more games than any other team in the NBA. The Jazz Strength of Schedule (combined record of the teams they have played) is .470, which is the 6th easiest in the NBA. Other notable teams close to the Jazz in terms of schedule strength are the Lakers (.483), Timberwolves (.473), Mavericks (.462), and Celtics (.482)

The Jazz are the 7th place team in the West. 2 games separate 5th place Golden State and 6th Place Houston, and 2 games separate 6th place Houston and 12th place Portland. Seems like every night spots 6 through 12 are reshuffled and 3 new teams are theoretically in the playoffs.

The Jazz have played 8 games at home and 12 on the road. Currently in the NBA there are only 4 teams that have played more than half of their games on the road and have a record of .500 or better, they are the Spurs, Knicks, Pacers, and Jazz. That is actually going to get worse before it gets better, 6 of the Jazz next 9 games are on the road, by the time Christmas day rolls around the Jazz will have played a league leading 18 of their 29 games on the Road.

Speaking of the next few games, the schedule through the end of the year is BRUTAL. After Toronto at home tomorrow this is the Jazz schedule for the rest of 2012...

@Lakers
Spurs
@Suns
Memphis
@Nets
@Pacers
@Heat
@Magic
Warriors
Clippers
@Clippers

Only 2 of those 11 teams have losing records, and the Jazz play both of those teams on the road. If the Jazz finnish the year .500 or better it will be because they have massively improved their play, as strange as that sounds. One way or another, at the end of the year we should have a good idea if the Jazz can play with other playoff teams on the road.

*Now for my personal opinions...opinions.

As frustrating as it has been to watch this team at times, overall and relative to the rest of the NBA they are performing pretty much how most people thought they would. I have actually seen some pretty steady improvement from them in terms of execution, and they show stretches where they are truly impressive, but they remain maddeningly inconsistent in both effort and execution. This next stretch is going to be critical, but I am seriously concerned about Big Al and Favors. If those guys can't get healthy in the next week or so December is going to be a very tough month.

TheMagnus wrote:

Alright, here we are 1/4 of the way through the season so lets look at where the Jazz stand shall we?

First, the facts...FACTS!!

Currently the Jazz are exactly .500 at 10-10. As of today the Jazz have played more games than any other team in the NBA. The Jazz Strength of Schedule (combined record of the teams they have played) is .470, which is the 6th easiest in the NBA. Other notable teams close to the Jazz in terms of schedule strength are the Lakers (.483), Timberwolves (.473), Mavericks (.462), and Celtics (.482)

The Jazz are the 7th place team in the West. 2 games separate 5th place Golden State and 6th Place Houston, and 2 games separate 6th place Houston and 12th place Portland. Seems like every night spots 6 through 12 are reshuffled and 3 new teams are theoretically in the playoffs.

The Jazz have played 8 games at home and 12 on the road. Currently in the NBA there are only 4 teams that have played more than half of their games on the road and have a record of .500 or better, they are the Spurs, Knicks, Pacers, and Jazz. That is actually going to get worse before it gets better, 6 of the Jazz next 9 games are on the road, by the time Christmas day rolls around the Jazz will have played a league leading 18 of their 29 games on the Road.

Speaking of the next few games, the schedule through the end of the year is BRUTAL. After Toronto at home tomorrow this is the Jazz schedule for the rest of 2012...

@Lakers
Spurs
@Suns
Memphis
@Nets
@Pacers
@Heat
@Magic
Warriors
Clippers
@Clippers

Only 2 of those 11 teams have losing records, and the Jazz play both of those teams on the road. If the Jazz finnish the year .500 or better it will be because they have massively improved their play, as strange as that sounds. One way or another, at the end of the year we should have a good idea if the Jazz can play with other playoff teams on the road.

*Now for my personal opinions...opinions.

As frustrating as it has been to watch this team at times, overall and relative to the rest of the NBA they are performing pretty much how most people thought they would. I have actually seen some pretty steady improvement from them in terms of execution, and they show stretches where they are truly impressive, but they remain maddeningly inconsistent in both effort and execution. This next stretch is going to be critical, but I am seriously concerned about Big Al and Favors. If those guys can't get healthy in the next week or so December is going to be a very tough month.

They have had a soft schedule as far as the quality of teams goes, but a lot of road games. They are going to finish the season probably close to .500 and I really don't see them making the playoffs at this point. The could slip in again like last year, but probably get no higher than the 7-8 seed.

It's pretty disappointing, because we ALL had such high hopes for them this season. I thought Mo was going to be more of a difference maker than he is. I think the main problem for their struggles is the PG play. The teams strength is their inside game, and you have to have a true pass first pg to run that correctly. Foye has been a great pick up for us, even though he is slightly one dimensional.

Favors and Hayward didn't make the leap that most of us thought they would. I would argue that Hayward is worse than he was last season. Marvin was a good pickup as well, but I don't see the Jazz keeping him. He isn't worth the money to keep.

Overall this team is going to get blown up this offseason. They will keep the core group of young guys, but Al, Milsap, JT, Watson, Marvin and Foye will more than likely all be out the door, if not by the trade deadline, for sure in the offseason. The Jazz will have a lot of money to spend in the offseason, but I don't see them attracting the big name FAs.

Also as much as I like Corbin as a former player and as a person, he needs to go. The Jazz need a more experienced coach. Corbin just doesn't have it. Maybe they need to bring Sloan back! I doubt he would do it, because he likes Corbin and wouldn't want to step on his toes, but he could get the most out of this team. Corbin isn't getting even close to the full potential out of these guys.

I'm a little more bullish on the Jazz prospects this year, I still think they finnish over .500 and closer to 50 wins than 40. If they can get Favors back on the court soon I think they will be able to continue to improve and hang around .500 through the end of December, and then they will be able to make up some ground in January, and if they all continue to grow together and make progress like they have been they will make the playoffs and might even be able to make some noise with the right matchup.

While I agree that Favors and Hayward haven't improved as much as we hoped, I think their are good signs for both of them. Favors is showing solid improvement, especially on the defensive end. He's averaging 11.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 3 blocks per 36 minutes...he's a legitimate difference maker out there and the only thing keeping him from making the full blown transition to being a star is his inconsistent offense.

I think all of us have said at one point or another that the biggest problem with Hayward is that he wasn't assertive enough and had a tendancy to dissapear, he's definitely getting past that and seems to have a much more agressive and confident attitude, unfortunately confidence hasn't made the shots fall consistently so far but he's proven he's a good shooter and eventually they will fall. He's averaging more steals, blocks, and points per minute than he did last year. There's also the fact that in his career so far Hayward has been a lot like Jefferson, he starts each year slow (but better than he started the previous year) and then he gets better as the year goes on. In fact, he is playing pretty much exactly to his established form so far and, if the pattern holds, in the next month or so we will start to see him dialed in and regularly putting up 20 point games.

Also, it's really Marvin's decision if he wants to stay next year unless the Jazz trade him. He has a player option worth 7.5 Million for next year, which is maybe a little high but still reasonable for what he brings. With the free agent market being so thin for talent and fat for teams willing to pay for it he might chose to opt out so he can get a new contract, but it's hard to say right now what he will do.

TheMagnus wrote:

I'm a little more bullish on the Jazz prospects this year, I still think they finnish over .500 and closer to 50 wins than 40. If they can get Favors back on the court soon I think they will be able to continue to improve and hang around .500 through the end of December, and then they will be able to make up some ground in January, and if they all continue to grow together and make progress like they have been they will make the playoffs and might even be able to make some noise with the right matchup.

While I agree that Favors and Hayward haven't improved as much as we hoped, I think their are good signs for both of them. Favors is showing solid improvement, especially on the defensive end. He's averaging 11.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 3 blocks per 36 minutes...he's a legitimate difference maker out there and the only thing keeping him from making the full blown transition to being a star is his inconsistent offense.

I think all of us have said at one point or another that the biggest problem with Hayward is that he wasn't assertive enough and had a tendancy to dissapear, he's definitely getting past that and seems to have a much more agressive and confident attitude, unfortunately confidence hasn't made the shots fall consistently so far but he's proven he's a good shooter and eventually they will fall. He's averaging more steals, blocks, and points per minute than he did last year. There's also the fact that in his career so far Hayward has been a lot like Jefferson, he starts each year slow (but better than he started the previous year) and then he gets better as the year goes on. In fact, he is playing pretty much exactly to his established form so far and, if the pattern holds, in the next month or so we will start to see him dialed in and regularly putting up 20 point games.

Also, it's really Marvin's decision if he wants to stay next year unless the Jazz trade him. He has a player option worth 7.5 Million for next year, which is maybe a little high but still reasonable for what he brings. With the free agent market being so thin for talent and fat for teams willing to pay for it he might chose to opt out so he can get a new contract, but it's hard to say right now what he will do.

I though it was a team option on Marvin, but you're right. I would think there is not much chance he will opt out. I don't see anyone giving him 8.5 million.

Hayward is still my favorite Jazz player, with Kanter catching him, I guess that's why I'm so hard on him. I want so badly for him to be a dominate force out there. He's proved he can do it.

Favors is going to be a great one, but I was just hoping for more of a jump this season. I'm worried that by the time he reaches his potential, we are going to lose to free agency.

Overall this team has some great pieces in place, but are't one or two players away form contending. More like 4-5. I see Lindsey and KOC being really aggressive at the trade deadline and in the off season.

One thing I will say is, this team is fun to watch, More than any team in the last 10 years. Yeah they lose a lot of games they could win, But they are in every game regardless of how good the opponent is. That is a great sign for the future. They can hang with any team in the NBA. They just don't know how to finish yet, but that will come.

You know your argument sucks when you have to break out "Per x-minute" in order to prove a point. Favors is, always has been, and always will be a bust for where he was taken and/or traded for. You either have it or you don't, and he doesn't. There is a reason he's not getting minutes, and it's not because the coach sucks, etc.

I think I'm going to like this place.

TroutBum wrote:

You know your argument sucks when you have to break out "Per x-minute" in order to prove a point. Favors is, always has been, and always will be a bust for where he was taken and/or traded for. You either have it or you don't, and he doesn't. There is a reason he's not getting minutes, and it's not because the coach sucks, etc.

I think I'm going to like this place.

Welcome. stupid!

TroutBum wrote:

You know your argument sucks when you have to break out "Per x-minute" in order to prove a point. Favors is, always has been, and always will be a bust for where he was taken and/or traded for. You either have it or you don't, and he doesn't. There is a reason he's not getting minutes, and it's not because the coach sucks, etc.

I think I'm going to like this place.

WOW you managed to make your first post, the stupidest one this forum has seen so for. Good job and welcome!

TroutBum wrote:

You know your argument sucks when you have to break out "Per x-minute" in order to prove a point. Favors is, always has been, and always will be a bust for where he was taken and/or traded for. You either have it or you don't, and he doesn't. There is a reason he's not getting minutes, and it's not because the coach sucks, etc.

I think I'm going to like this place.

Welcome, and I think you will.

I must say though, starting off with a sentence that includes the words "Favors" and "bust" with the latter referring to the former is a horrible way to make a first impression. Makes you sound like the white guy telling Chris Rock jokes at the NAACP convention.

Right now, I'm looking at the Jazz as a potential spoiler. I think we will make the playoffs, and I don't think ANY team would be happy with a first round matchup with us. OKC, SA, Memphis, and the Clippers can all beat us in a series-- but, we're a growing team, and I don't think any of them would want to face us in their first round.

My guess (hope) would have been 12-8 at this point.
Honestly had favors not been hurt....I think we would have been there.

The Voice of Reason wrote:

My guess (hope) would have been 12-8 at this point.
Honestly had favors not been hurt....I think we would have been there.

Interesting views on Favors. I guess I'm not sold on him yet. Yes, all the potential to be a decent/good baller with a long career where in his prime he could be a defensive force. However, haven't seen much out of him this season that has "star" written on him and I honestly, until this season, thought he might develop into one. Clearly he seems like a piece that should stay in house at least until his contract is nearing up. Hayward is in my same house of disappointment but I suppose it is early to count him out as well - had high hopes for the kid but not sure he mentally has it despite the physical skill set.

Overall, the Jazz are playing 0.500 ball with one of the leagues softest set of opponents through the first quarter, road heavy or not, not a good sign. Per Mags, the rest of December is going to be brutal, playing good teams each night, not patsies. Maybe we will see the glimmer of a better team than I think they are by actually beating a couple of them on the road but not sure they will dig themselves out if they fall 6 or so games under 0.500 in the brutal West. At this point my prediction of the 4 spot in the West looks pathetically homeristic. I really thought the young guns were going to show marked improvement and they just haven't, or in the case of Burks, regressed. And honestly, Mo = Devin in my mind, not the upgrade I thought we were getting.

I think the story of the season is going to be a shake it up trade. No sense finishing this season as a 0.500 team with all the expiring contracts, time to do another on the fly mini-rebuild, they aren't going to scare anybody in the playoffs at this rate.

MTJazz wrote:

The Voice of Reason wrote:

My guess (hope) would have been 12-8 at this point.
Honestly had favors not been hurt....I think we would have been there.

Interesting views on Favors. I guess I'm not sold on him yet.

I just think his interior D would have helped us the last couple of losses.

MTJazz wrote:

Interesting views on Favors. I guess I'm not sold on him yet. Yes, all the potential to be a decent/good baller with a long career where in his prime he could be a defensive force. However, haven't seen much out of him this season that has "star" written on him and I honestly, until this season, thought he might develop into one. Clearly he seems like a piece that should stay in house at least until his contract is nearing up. Hayward is in my same house of disappointment but I suppose it is early to count him out as well - had high hopes for the kid but not sure he mentally has it despite the physical skill set.

Boy, do you sure sound stupid. Don't you know, potential = ALL STAR, and Per x-minute stats are how real talent is measured. I'd like to know, seriously, how many of you clowns hanging on Favors' strap also were avid Chucker J. Miles fans? Remember all of his potential? I sure do. Anyway, this is all moot. Corbin and any other coach in the NBA is a fool for not knowing what us fans know.

Clearly.

The Voice of Reason wrote:

MTJazz wrote:

The Voice of Reason wrote:

My guess (hope) would have been 12-8 at this point.
Honestly had favors not been hurt....I think we would have been there.

Interesting views on Favors. I guess I'm not sold on him yet.

I just think his interior D would have helped us the last couple of losses.

It absolutely would have. You replace Favors with Kanter and Evans and you have taken a big step back on the court. The second unit has been absolutely murdered defensively with favors out. Whether you believe in his potential or not, his impact and production on the court RIGHT NOW is indisputable, and while it may be below some peoples expectations, it's still pretty damn good for a 21 year old.

Since the Trout disdains per-minute numbers so much, lets go back to per-game numbers, and see if you can name all of the players under the age of 23 right now in the NBA averaging over 8 points, 7 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks PER GAME?

I'll wait...

TroutBum wrote:

Boy, do you sure sound stupid. Don't you know, potential = ALL STAR, and Per x-minute stats are how real talent is measured. I'd like to know, seriously, how many of you clowns hanging on Favors' strap also were avid Chucker J. Miles fans? Remember all of his potential? I sure do. Anyway, this is all moot. Corbin and any other coach in the NBA is a fool for not knowing what us fans know.

Clearly.

If it makes you feel better.....you will find few, or maybe no CJ fans here.

Much improvement movement this season over last. When Corbin caves to his own experiment of forcing things through worthless players like Millsap and Hayward who can't hit a wide open shot and ARE NOT first options like they pretend to be. He will be coach of the year when this happens. I envision a $6,000,000 per year outside offer from teams like Millwaukee. That would be tragic.

Professo_Sloan wrote:

Much improvement movement this season over last. When Corbin caves to his own experiment of forcing things through worthless players like Millsap and Hayward who can't hit a wide open shot and ARE NOT first options like they pretend to be. He will be coach of the year when this happens. I envision a $6,000,000 per year outside offer from teams like Millwaukee. That would be tragic.

Milsap and Hayward are hardly worthless! Both are a bit disappointing so far this year, but are still very good players.

TheMagnus wrote:

Since the Trout disdains per-minute numbers so much, lets go back to per-game numbers, and see if you can name all of the players under the age of 23 right now in the NBA averaging over 8 points, 7 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks PER GAME?

I'll wait...

Silence from the Trout...anybody else want to take a crack at it?

Romoholic wrote:

Milsap and Hayward are hardly worthless! Both are a bit disappointing so far this year, but are still very good players.

First off, it's Millsap. Hard to take someone serious who, oh never mind I'm getting to old for this stuff.

True Millsap is not worthless even though he has pouted all season long like he is Lamar Odom or Derek Fisher.

Hayward is useless. He has missed more wide open uncontested shots this year than CJ Miles missed every year he played underneath the Master. He can't shoot he can't pass he's a turnover machine. Don't make the same mistake made with CJ Miles. Get rid of him!

Professo_Sloan wrote:

Romoholic wrote:

Milsap and Hayward are hardly worthless! Both are a bit disappointing so far this year, but are still very good players.

First off, it's Millsap. Hard to take someone serious who, oh never mind I'm getting to old for this stuff.

True Millsap is not worthless even though he has pouted all season long like he is Lamar Odom or Derek Fisher.

Hayward is useless. He has missed more wide open uncontested shots this year than CJ Miles missed every year he played underneath the Master. He can't shoot he can't pass he's a turnover machine. Don't make the same mistake made with CJ Miles. Get rid of him!

That's just crazy talk, Hayward is better than Miles was at this point in his career in almost every way, and that's not just grass-is-greener homerism, that is a fact...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=milescj01&y1=2009&p2=haywago01&y2=2013

TheMagnus wrote:

Professo_Sloan wrote:

Romoholic wrote:

Milsap and Hayward are hardly worthless! Both are a bit disappointing so far this year, but are still very good players.

First off, it's Millsap. Hard to take someone serious who, oh never mind I'm getting to old for this stuff.

True Millsap is not worthless even though he has pouted all season long like he is Lamar Odom or Derek Fisher.

Hayward is useless. He has missed more wide open uncontested shots this year than CJ Miles missed every year he played underneath the Master. He can't shoot he can't pass he's a turnover machine. Don't make the same mistake made with CJ Miles. Get rid of him!

That's just crazy talk, Hayward is better than Miles was at this point in his career in almost every way, and that's not just grass-is-greener homerism, that is a fact...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=milescj01&y1=2009&p2=haywago01&y2=2013

Wow, logic and proof to back up your argument. It's getting pretty rare!

TheMagnus wrote:

That's just crazy talk, Hayward is better than Miles was at this point in his career in almost every way, and that's not just grass-is-greener homerism, that is a fact...

Now do not take my words out of context. Why I never made such a statement, although I hesitate to build supersized egos within these young men as fans seem dead set on. You have to control that first things foremost you know.

Don't apologize now I have no interest in softness. From here out we will try to understand one another before jumping to conclusions.

Professo_Sloan wrote:

TheMagnus wrote:

That's just crazy talk, Hayward is better than Miles was at this point in his career in almost every way, and that's not just grass-is-greener homerism, that is a fact...

Now do not take my words out of context. Why I never made such a statement, although I hesitate to build supersized egos within these young men as fans seem dead set on. You have to control that first things foremost you know.

Don't apologize now I have no interest in softness. From here out we will try to understand one another before jumping to conclusions.

Alright, it was crazy talk, no apologies.

And just so you understand where I am coming from, Hayward isn't Miles, and Miles wasn't a "mistake" to begin with, so..."don't make the same mistake made with CJ Miles. Get rid of him" = crazy. talk.

TheMagnus wrote:

TheMagnus wrote:

Since the Trout disdains per-minute numbers so much, lets go back to per-game numbers, and see if you can name all of the players under the age of 23 right now in the NBA averaging over 8 points, 7 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks PER GAME?

I'll wait...

Silence from the Trout...anybody else want to take a crack at it?

Oh, my bad. I didn't think there was any way that you were being serious. You actually think that dropping your "Per x-minute" stat in favor of, "OMG, LOOK AT HIS POTENTIAL!! HE'S ONLY 23!!11 LOL!" is somehow a better way of trying to prove a point that was absolute garbage from the get-go? Ya, good call. I can't believe nobody took the time to answer your question.

TheMagnus wrote:

Alright, here we are 1/4 of the way through the season so lets look at where the Jazz stand shall we?

First, the facts...FACTS!!

Surprisingly sound post! I was expecting that Mag will predict 60 wins and at least West finals.