Predictions for the 2011-2012 Season (from the TT)

I'll be moving what prediction I can find for the record here, if you remember your own go ahead and post them...

Last edited by TheMagnus on Thu Apr 26, 2012 8:06 pm; edited 1 time in total

magnus-12/16/2011 wrote:: Alright, the teams is set, there won't be any more major aquisitions, seems unlikely that they make a major trade, so this is more than likely your 2011-2012 Utah Jazz...

PG: Devin Harris, Earl Watson, (Tinsley?)
SG: Gordon Hayward, Raja Bell, Alec Burks
SF: CJ Miles, Josh Howard
PF: Paul Millsap, Derrek Favors, Jeremy Evans
C: Al Jefferson, Memo Okur, Enes Kanter

The active roster list has been increased to 13 and the D-League assignments are now more flexible so it seems likely that the Jazz will keep at least one of the non-guaranted guys in camp, and probably two, and go into the season with 15 on the roster, but those guys will not be regular contributors unless a couple people get hurt. My gues is that either Evans or Kanter or both get assigned to the D-League early in the season.

So how good is this team? Here's my statistically based (lies!!) predictions...

I did some quick WinScore analysis and I'm convinced that this is at least a .500 team.

When I broke it down and tried to make my best educated guess about what each player would contribute and what minutes they would play I came out with 34 wins. That number assumes that Bell, Okur, and Howard will perform below their career averages but still see meaningfull minutes and Hayward and Favors will step up their games substantially. I think those are both reasonable assumptions. My most optimistic estimations produced 43 wins.

There are a couple things that jumped out at me when I looked at the numbers.

First is that if one or two of the young guys step up and the +30 vets don't totally suck this team has really good depth top to bottom. That is even a bigger deal than normal because of the compressed schedule. Guys that get injured are going to miss more games and starters are going to get fewer minutes, so bench play is going to be critical.

Second is that, unlike past years, this team seems much more likely to overperform than underperform. Part of that may be because expectations are low, but the other part is that the Jazz have a whole roster full of guys who could (and should) be better than they were last year, including the over 30 vets. My worst case scenario is that nobody on this team plays better than they did last year, Hayward and favors stagnate, Howard and Bell are almost worthless, Okur is slow an dout of sync, and that team still projected 29 wins. From all accounts that doesn't appear that it will be the case. Camp is always a time of blind optimism from the team, but by all counts Hayward, Howard, Okur, and Jefferson are all better than they were last year.

So all of that being said, I predict a 36-30 regular season record, we make the playoffs, and lose in the first round.

...but I reserve the right to be actively hopeful for a suprise playoff run led by this group of talented young players and savvy second-chance veterans.

Last edited by TheMagnus on Thu Apr 26, 2012 10:33 pm; edited 4 times in total

Calgary Jazz-12/16/2011 wrote:: Umproven coach, to many young inexperienced players, no superstars on the roster, no defensive minded players, brutal schedule... My best estimate for them is 29-37 and missing playoffs. Hope I am wrong.

Calgary Jazz-12/25/2011 wrote:: 27 wins... unless more crazy trades or FA signings happen.

Last edited by TheMagnus on Thu Apr 26, 2012 8:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

Jazz Dog-12/17/2011 wrote:: I'm thinking that the Jazz will end up 37-29 and be a 6th or 7th seed in the playoffs. I don't like the Clippers big besides Griffin, Clippers don't make playoffs.

Jazz trade Milsap for dominant SF.
Gordan Hayward becomes our next star.

Last edited by TheMagnus on Thu Apr 26, 2012 8:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

Jazzbo-12/17/2011 wrote:: As Magnus said, we've been flying under the radar. None of the pundits are expecting anything out of the Jazz, so no pressure. All this talk about collecting assets, I just don't get it - they're called basketball players and comprise a team. All this talk about relying on veterans to the detriment of our rookies - what are you talking about? This is a shortened season with plenty of back to back to backs. I expect to see different starting lineups on certain nights or at least different rotations to allow the old dogs like Jefferson, Howard and Harris to recuperate. Unlike most teams with Star power we're gonna win by committee. We're gonna be like that motley crew of Elves, Hobbits and Dwarves from Lord of the Rings taking down Saron.

I don't expect any mid season trades unless Jefferson goes sour on a playing time bender, then the trade I like is Jefferson for Kaman. Other than that I think we're good just the way we are because we are plenty deep at every position. Harris and Howard are going to find some of that old magic from their Dallas days, Gordy's gonna turn into Horney with better athleticism. The bigs are going to confound with their different scoring approaches. I'm optimistic - over 40 wins and at least a first round playoff win.

Last edited by TheMagnus on Thu Apr 26, 2012 8:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

Forever Jazz-12/17/2011 wrote:: I think the Jazz make the playoffs, just because I think Portland, Phoenix, and Denver take big steps back, Houston is kind of an unknown with half their players thinking they are getting traded...Obviously the shoe-ins are OKC, Memphis, Dallas, Lakers, Spurs, and Clippers. That leave the Jazz with too much talent and too much continuity to miss the playoffs, unfortunately as a low seed - meaning a quick exit and losing a pick in a valuable draft. Good thing Golden St. will be handing theirs over in short order to make up for it...

Nate1218-12/18/2011 wrote:: They miss the playoffs this year with a 31-35 record but look out league because they should be good enough to make the playoffs NEXT season.:eek:

From TT

I predict no one will trade a baloney sandwich for Bell.

However, I do predict the Jazz will barely make the playoffs, and thus lose their first round draft pick, and Golden State will have the 7th pick, thus keeping their draft pick. In the deepest draft in years, the Jazz will have no draft picks.

Wow, looks like I'm a coin flip away from being dead on. But after GS deliberating tanking the season, I would love it if they lose the flip.

I'm ashamed to say I predicted 15 wins for the Jazz. After the way last season ended and not having a off season or training camp. I was not at all optimistic.

thesob wrote:: From TT

I predict no one will trade a baloney sandwich for Bell.

However, I do predict the Jazz will barely make the playoffs, and thus lose their first round draft pick, and Golden State will have the 7th pick, thus keeping their draft pick. In the deepest draft in years, the Jazz will have no draft picks.

Wow, looks like I'm a coin flip away from being dead on. But after GS deliberating tanking the season, I would love it if they lose the flip.

nicely done. I certainly hope you are wrong on the coin toss though...

**Nomo4me-12/25/2011 wrote:** My guess is 29 games What say ye?

Nomo4me-12/25/2011 wrote:: My guess is 29 games

What say ye?

Kenngo1969-12/25/2011 wrote:: A normal season would have enough variables to make any sort of prediction difficult, and the compressed nature of this season, resulting lack of practice time, shortened training camps (shortened/compressed everything, in fact) makes any such prediction this season even more difficult. Add to that the youth of this team and I'll go waaaay out on a limb and say that the Jazz's record will be somewhere between

0-66, and ...
66-0.

OK, I'll split the difference and say .500, 33-33.

**RookieJazz-12/26/2011 wrote:** 19 wins and another top 3 pick.

RookieJazz-12/26/2011 wrote:: 19 wins and another top 3 pick.

ptaz66-12/22/2011 wrote:: I'm going with the optimist approach. I'll say 39 - 27.

This year I really think depth is going to play a much larger role than in normal years. After watching the two pre-season games I really think the Jazz have the depth to help them be better than maybe they would have been if we'd have had a normal regular season schedule.

CJ Miles, Bell, Hayward, Evans, Burks, and Howard really seem to be seperated by very little, or in other words, pretty interchangeable pieces.

Likewise, there seems to be little seperation in our three point guards.

The same can be said for our three Power Forwards, as I think Jefferson will split time between PF and C.

Kanter and Okur our true Centers too are fairly interchangeable. Okur has the experience and offense, but is slow and a weak defender. Kanter is active on the defensive end, and runs the floor well, but has a weak offensive game.

I just hope Coach Corbin and his staff, can settle in, then, take advantage of the skill sets of his players well enough to provide them opportunities to win.

Leoverine-12/22/2011 wrote:: The same, not sure what I guessed before, but somethin like 32-34 or 31-35.

therawns-12/22/2011 wrote:: im going down a tad from 28-38 to 26-40.

This team might be the deepest in the league, but who is the best player? Rumor has it they start favors over millsp, which i dont believe, but millsap is probably the best player on this team. He should be a #3 player on a team. I would not be surprised to see an implosion.

Sayingh this though, i do see some trades on the horizon, so to me, its hard to make a prediction.

(out of the 14 players, who are the 2 that do not dress usually?)

skiier-12/22/2011 wrote:: Millsap is by far the best player on this team. The jazz are going to have to keep him happy,and that he is not!! Deep for sure but not a lot of maturity...I see this team wining 26 games. I would like to see Okur and CJ hit the road!!! I belive they will continue to make no progress with the jazz!!

Romoholic wrote:: I'm ashamed to say I predicted 15 wins for the Jazz. After the way last season ended and not having a off season or training camp. I was not at all optimistic.

give yourself a little credit, you said 15-20....

Romoholic-12/23/2011 wrote:: I'm excited about the season to see how the team grows. but I'll still say 15-20 wins at the most. Mainly because Harris looks like crap and can't facilitate an offense. So most scoring is gonna have to be iso stuff or made off picks and cuts.

zero24gravity-12/22/2011 wrote:: I'm thinking high 20's for the Jazz' win total. ..... how about 28?

I think they'll start out pretty poorly & then get better as the year goes on. After watching the complete lack of continuity on both offense & defense during the abbreviated preseason, I'm expecting something like a 3-7 start to the season.

As Jazz fans, I feel like we're ok with having a poor season as long as we see progress. If the young Jazzmen are getting PT & we see that there's a bright future, losses aren't that hard to take. What will be unexeptable is if Raja, CJ & some of the other vet's are eating up all the floor time & the team is still not winning.

I predict this will be a fun season.

Crunchtime-12/22/2011 wrote:: I am going to go 28-38 for Jazz prediction, but I hope they surprise me to the upside.

I am still here in SF Bay Area. Fredette put a move on Curry in the last pre-season game that resulted in Curry badly rolling his surgically repaired ankle when trying to defend. Curry crawled off the court, so I seriously doubt he will start on Sunday. Curry had a lot of problems with the same ankle last season and a lot of observers thought the Warriors kept bringing him back too soon after the injuries. Monta Ellis just got hit with a sexual harassment suit this week, so it hasn't been a great week for the Warriors.

I am going to get the Warriors and Kings games here on TV in addition to nationally televised games. I wouldn't be surprised if the Kings and Jazz upset the Bynum/Odom less Lakers the next few days. Kobe is banged up too with strained ligaments in his wrist, but you can never count him out. The Kings' young backcourt rotation of Evans, Thornton and Fredette look like they can definitely put some points on the board.

TheMagnus wrote:

zero24gravity-12/22/2011 wrote:: I'm thinking high 20's for the Jazz' win total. ..... how about 28?

I think they'll start out pretty poorly & then get better as the year goes on. After watching the complete lack of continuity on both offense & defense during the abbreviated preseason, I'm expecting something like a 3-7 start to the season.

As Jazz fans, I feel like we're ok with having a poor season as long as we see progress. If the young Jazzmen are getting PT & we see that there's a bright future, losses aren't that hard to take. What will be unexeptable is if Raja, CJ & some of the other vet's are eating up all the floor time & the team is still not winning.

I predict this will be a fun season.

Well, I'm happy to be off on my "28" prediction, but at least I was right about them getting better as the season goes on. Smile

I'm pretty amazed that so many people got so close. I like to think know a lot about basketball and I never saw this coming. I would have bet everything I own that they wouldn't make the playoffs!

I'm pleased to have been wrong about 29 wins as that would have meant some of our young'uns didn't show very well.

Kanter has some major work to do this summer on the offensive end and needs to shed 15 lbs of body fat to amount to more than a role player in this league but Hayward, Burks & Favors are on track to be the core of a 52 win team in the future.

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