Predictions: Marvin Williams

Marvin Williams turn on the prediction wheel, lets let Hollinger get us started...

Quote :

MARVIN WILLIAMS, SF
Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
15.2 7.5 1.9 15.2
Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card

Scouting report
+ Passive combo forward with good midrange shot. Excellent finisher in transition.
+ Long-armed wing defender who needs to add strength. Can play 4 in a pinch.
+ Decent lateral movement; solid defender. Excellent rebounder for a wing.

Analysis
Williams looked better last season after back surgery, walking visibly more upright and putting together arguably his best pro season on the court. He's become an extreme low-mistake player who ranked third among small forwards in turnover ratio and also fouled very infrequently. Additionally, he rated seventh among small forwards in rebound rate.

Williams also shot the ball effectively, hitting a career-best 38.9 percent on 3s and shooting the 3 with far greater frequency than in the past. However, he went the opposite way on long 2s, dropping to 33.9 percent on nearly as many attempts. Williams again earned a lot of free throws with his offensive boards and fast-break attacks to the rim, even though he's not a particularly aggressive or deceptive half-court player.

Defensively, Williams was miscast as the Hawks' stopper and the team played better once Kirk Hinrich replaced him as a starter, but his length and mobility make him an effective defender overall.

Overall he's an effective small forward and will be a major upgrade on what Utah had at this spot a season ago, even with a likely regression in his 3-point shooting. He's just overpaid for what he is.

So assuming Marvin plays 27-30 minutes a game, Hollinger projections put him at about 11.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 1.5 ast...

Damnittt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I had a whole analysis typed up talking about his role with the Hawks and his performance.... one bad keystroke, pooooffff. Gone.

Anyways, I think Marvin has a decent year this year. I think he is what he is and I don't expect him to sudenly "break out" and start playing like a #2 overall pick, that ship has sailed, but I think he will be solid and like Hollinger said, significantly better than the Howard/Miles combo we had last year.

I think he averages 12 points, 6 rebounds, 1.5 assists in 30 minutes a game and shoots 45/35/80.

Good stuff Mag, liking these prediction threads.

Some things that stick out on Hollingers posting: Extremely low-mistake player, ranking 3rd in turnovers for SF's, fouled very infrequently which to me shows good defense and moving to the right spots etc. His rebound rate is great and will add to our team rebounds that we already dominate. Think about that one; we were killing teams on the glass last year, but now add a great SF rebounder instead of our shitty ones last year. This translates to wins right there....great stuff. Marv gets alot of FT's from offensive boards, and I believe he's a good ft shooter, awesome.
Overall, it looks like Marv is a tremendous 5th option/player on a starting 5. ATL just wanted him to be a #2 pick and a 3rd option etc. This is a great great pick up for us, and I bet Marv is going to feel the best he ever has.

With all the studs on this team, I think Marv starts at SF, but averages closer to 27 minutes a game. With that, I'm looking at an average of pretty close to Hollingers prediction: 11.5pts per, 5rebs, 1.5ast, and finally on the correct team he hits on his high average of 45%FG. On this well spaced and talented team, I think Marv also hits a career high on 3's and goes 40%, with 82% FTs. Best part about this I think are his 5rebs that we'll be able to count on, which we haven't been able to for years at the SF. We may very well have 5 players that average 5rebs or more this year. Awesome. Possibly 6---crazy.

25.6 minutes/ 9.7 points/ 4.6 Rebs/ 1.9 assists/ 0.9 turnovers/ .7 steals/ .9 blocks/ 44.3% fg/ 40.3% threes/ 81.7 ft. I'll even go 1.5 offensive rebs/ 3.1 defensive rebs. I'll be very happy with that if he also plays smart within the offensive system by setting good picks and whatnot and plays solid D. Also I won't even really care what his stats say if he tries hard and hustles I'll like him despite stats. But if he slacks off I won't live him very much no matter what his stat sheet says

Zoonie wrote:

25.6 minutes/ 9.7 points/ 4.6 Rebs/ 1.9 assists/ 0.9 turnovers/ .7 steals/ .9 blocks/ 44.3% fg/ 40.3% threes/ 81.7 ft. I'll even go 1.5 offensive rebs/ 3.1 defensive rebs. I'll be very happy with that if he also plays smart within the offensive system by setting good picks and whatnot and plays solid D. Also I won't even really care what his stats say if he tries hard and hustles I'll like him despite stats. But if he slacks off I won't live him very much no matter what his stat sheet says

I'm not going to make any predictions about his production, because I honestly haven't seen one hawks game unless they played the Jazz.

I will say that if he rebounds at a good rate and even if he only averages 10ppg I'm gonna be happy. It has to be a consistant 10ppg though. Not a CJ Miles 10ppg. You know 30 points one game then 0 for the next two, that doens't help.

If he can knock down 1-2 threes a game to keep guys from sinking in on the bigs that will be a huge help as well. You know people won't leave Mo alone from three, we need that out of Marvin too.

Not a prediction, but I quick write up on Marvin & his "disapointing" career.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/marvin-williams-sick-tired-having-answer-questions-atlanta-195636116--nba.html;_ylt=ApnGm1FYuNojSaiDsUH8Uz45nYcB;_ylu=X3oDMTFpOTFqNmI3BG1pdANUZWFtIFRyYWNrZXIEcG9zAzQ1BHNlYwNNZWRpYU1vZHVsZVRlYW1UcmFja2Vy;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

.....

Marvin averaged 7.4 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.1 ast, .5 stl, .5 blk, .8 TO, in 24 minutes a game on 43/33/78 and has a PER of 10.9.

Looks like Marvin dissapointed pretty much everybody...Zoonie probably closest, but still high in almost every category.