Playoff predictions

Ok lets get our predictions for the 1st round. I'm gonna be a straight up homer here and pick the Jazz in 6 games. Maybe we should have a GTS playoff edition. I don't want to do it, but if someone else does I'll participate.

I'm an optimist, but the spurs are really freaking good this year.

Spurs in a hard fought 6 games.

I am gonna say Spurs in 5. We MIGHT take them to 6, but I think it will be a hard fought 5 games with the championship veteran experience of the Spurs (and Pop) giving the advantage at the end of games to SAS.
I hope I am wrong.

For some reason I'm just not scared of the Spurs anymore. I'm probably wrong, but I don't think they are as good as their record say's they are.

Romoholic wrote:

For some reason I'm just not scared of the Spurs anymore. I'm probably wrong, but I don't think they are as good as their record say's they are.

There are a lot of variables here...Parker's shoulder, Utah's inexperience, San Antonio's age, San Antonio's psychological advantage. Shoot, seems like we haven't beaten a healthy San Antonio team since 1997.

I just fear that we can't defend the 3 point shot against them. And Manu always kills us.
I also think that Favors and Hayward are probably going to struggle, and we need them to be competitive.

I am excited though. I think we will be eliminated in 5, but I think it will be a good series. I think we will get blown out in game one, lose a close one in game 2, win game 3 and then lose games 4 and 5.

I agree. I think the Spurs will take it in 5, simply because they've always been the team to beat for us - rivals, of a sort. But yeah, they're getting old, Manu's about 50-50 right now, and basically without Parker they're a mid-level team. We have a chance to extend to 6 games, and maybe even all 7, but I think given our track record against the Spurs and this young team, we're done in 5.

I just hope it's a good series no matter what... well, and that maybe we're pleasantly surprised (I'm willing to be wrong about this)

The Spurs have too many good shooters and as mentioned, vets. Spurs in 5.

I'll be interested to see if Jefferson has better stats than Duncan. Also there's the Millsap at sf factor that will be interesting. Plus pulling out Favors or Jefferson on Bonner will negate some boarding advantages. PLUS, Hayward on Manu will be real, real interesting. Post Gordon baby.

You know Popavich is going with a zone defense (what did he do against the Jazz in the season?). Gotta have cutters move when someone penetrates- or hit the three consistently. I'm sure Corbin is preparing the threepoint defense and options on offense like a madman.

I'm also thinking the Spurs in 5 or 6.... probably 6.

It's not Duncan that scares me, and it's not even Parker & Ginobli so much. It's the other 3-point shooters that just stand there outside the arc & knock down shots. Bonner (42%) , Jackson, Mills (42.9%), Neal (41.9%), Greene (43.6%), Leonard (37.6%), even Diaw. Those are the kinds of guys that tend to kill the Jazz. Utah needs to stay home on their man on defense if their man is spotting up in order to win IMO.

What the hell? Jazz win game 7 in San Antonio with Favors posting a 15-15-10 block game.

And big thanks Romo for setting this up. I have visited TribTalk just about every day through the season and I love the following to this site where I am familiar with the posters.

13uz wrote:

What the hell? Jazz win game 7 in San Antonio with Favors posting a 15-15-10 block game.

And big thanks Romo for setting this up. I have visited TribTalk just about every day through the season and I love the following to this site where I am familiar with the posters.

Yeah I just hope everyone shows up here. It's already pretty active. I had google crawl the forum so it should start showing up on Utah Jazz searches soon. Then we might get some new people in here. No matter what happens though. It's always gonna be a forum for my friends from tribtalk. Thats who I set it up for.

Prediction from John Hollinger at ESPN...

John Hollinger wrote:

(1) Spurs vs. ( Jazz

Season: Spurs 3-1
Power Rankings: Spurs 109.2, Jazz 101.9
Accuscore: Spurs 93% Jazz 7%

Could Utah make this interesting? Perhaps. Size gives San Antonio some problems, and the monstrous Paul Millsap-Al Jefferson-Derrick Favors frontcourt the Jazz have rolled out of late has been incredibly effective. Additionally, Utah stinks against zones, and the Spurs hardly ever play zone.

Nonetheless, I just don't see how the Jazz will get any stops. Utah is by and large awful against the pick-and-roll, and the Spurs have been carving up teams with that play all season. The Jazz's defense at the point of attack would have to dramatically improve to give them much of a chance against this Spurs juggernaut.

Keep an eye on the Jazz, because in another year or two they're going to be handful, but they can't handle this big a step up in class just yet. Even when the Spurs sat their three stars in Salt Lake City, the Jazz barely beat them.

Pick: Spurs in 5

Spurs in five. Jazz will win a close game 3. Hollinger is prophet predicting Jefferson will have nightmares about the Spurs pick and roll. Even Orlando's pick n' roll killed Jefferson.

Spurs in 6.

They are simply a better team, a good mix of high caliber vets and youngsters and Popovich, the 3-point shooting and Parker. (If Parker is not 100% things get more interesting; that guy is the glue and is having an MVP-type year). However, the Jazz are not going to get rolled and they are as deep as they have ever been - Corbin has the best mix-and-match options the Jazz have ever had and he will have the team prepared. I also think this team is psychologically peaking, a big X-factor especially as it relates to a winning mentality on the road. Honestly, the Jazz lack of head-mojo then is all that is separating them now from being the 4th seed - physically and talent-wise they are that good, the not showing up on the road thing good go away with team psyche and energy. Its going to be entertaining and I have to say this is far more fun than waiting around for the draft to have something to talk about!

That's still just so weird reading or hearing, "the Jazz suck at the Pick & Roll." Wasn't so long ago we were schooling everybody on how to do it.

If Favors plays more, than our pick and roll defense gets better. Favors does a good job with the pick and roll. I think our three headed monster in the front court could cause problems for the Spurs. I'm saying Spurs in seven...oh what the heck...JAZZ IN SIX.

Spurs in four.

This extremely annoying broom will be removed after the first Jazz win!

zero24gravity wrote:

It's not Duncan that scares me, and it's not even Parker & Ginobli so much. It's the other 3-point shooters that just stand there outside the arc & knock down shots.

I agree. They got seven guys shooting roughly 38% and above! They are gonna have to move away from defending the paint at all costs: No wide open three pointers like we gave Michael Redd in that Phoenix game.

Crunchtime1 wrote:

zero24gravity wrote:

It's not Duncan that scares me, and it's not even Parker & Ginobli so much. It's the other 3-point shooters that just stand there outside the arc & knock down shots.

I agree. They got seven guys shooting roughly 38% and above! They are gonna have to move away from defending the paint at all costs: No wide open three pointers from the perimeter like we gave Michael Redd in that Phoenix game.

Ugh...Don't remind me ..... I was at that game. Sucked.

zero24gravity wrote:

Crunchtime1 wrote:

zero24gravity wrote:

It's not Duncan that scares me, and it's not even Parker & Ginobli so much. It's the other 3-point shooters that just stand there outside the arc & knock down shots.

I agree. They got seven guys shooting roughly 38% and above! They are gonna have to move away from defending the paint at all costs: No wide open three pointers from the perimeter like we gave Michael Redd in that Phoenix game.

Ugh...Don't remind me ..... I was at that game. Sucked.

Ok, but here's the thing, this team is actually pretty good at covering the 3pt line. I think some of what we see is carry over form the Jerry Sloan days, but Corbin has a very different defensive philosophy.

First the Phoenix game. You will notice that Redd got hot for a while, but then the Jazz shut him down when it mattered. I've noticed all year that the Jazz are MUCH MUCH better this year at getting guys off the 3pt line and forcing them to drive or take long 2's. That was on full display against the Suns.

Second, the Jazz are actually 8th in the NBA this year in opposing 3pt D, allowing opponents a low 34% on the season.

The thing that has really carried over from the Jerry Sloan years is the fouling. The number of shooting fouls the Jazz give up really kills their defensive efficiency, and that is where they are going to get into trouble against guys like Gonobili and Parker. That pick and roll the Spurs run is a nightmare, and those two will be attacking the paint constantly.

I agree that the three point defense is better .... no doubt. But the Jazz still sink to the middle when a guard penetrates to the basket, leaving their man wide open behind the arc. What I'm thinking is that the Jazz defenders need to be mindfull of who they are gurding. If Sap is on Bonner then he can't be the help defense when Parker/Ginobili get in the middle. Same for Gordon and the other wings. They need to allow the Jazz bigs to be the help defenders, not the guys who are leaving three point shooters wide open.

zero24gravity wrote:

I agree that the three point defense is better .... no doubt. But the Jazz still sink to the middle when a guard penetrates to the basket, leaving their man wide open behind the arc. What I'm thinking is that the Jazz defenders need to be mindfull of who they are gurding. If Sap is on Bonner then he can't be the help defense when Parker/Ginobili get in the middle. Same for Gordon and the other wings. They need to allow the Jazz bigs to be the help defenders, not the guys who are leaving three point shooters wide open.

Completely concur with your observation and is one small reason I didn't mind Raja on the floor when healthy, (though GH and Burks are a consistently more productive package). Bell could man-up and stay there, not be sucked into a poor help rotation. I think in many ways the hangover is from the long period of time when the Jazz paint defense was soft as pudding because the bigs were not rotating quickly enough on the penetration or on the pick and roll so the wings figured they had to stay with the penetrator. Hopefully Corbin is game-planning for this, firing up his bigs to do their job, (rise up oh beastly Favors) so the wings can stay with the spot-up shooters.

I cant post the link for some reason. My thoughts on the series are posted on crankuptheheat.com. It is a Heat website, so I do not go into too much detail. (No, im not bandwagon, and a Heat fan, I just had a friend that asked if I was interested in writing with them.)

I think aside from Jefferson we've got Favors and Paul who are great movers for being so big. The Spurs are so smart and talented, but if Jazz players dont go and double every time down, I think we're better off. Al can guard Duncan better than most, after that, our guys can match up with anybody. So as long as there aren't too many wide open guys for 3's, I think we're ok.

Spurs are really good, really well coached, have a deep bench. But are really old.

Jazz are showing they're pretty good too, have the edge in the front court as a whole, are deep, are young and hungry already and believe in themselves.

Not sure if this counts, but if Jazz can steal game 1 or 2, I think Utah wins it in 6. If it goes 7, Spurs move on.

therawns wrote:

I cant post the link for some reason. My thoughts on the series are posted on crankuptheheat.com. It is a Heat website, so I do not go into too much detail. (No, im not bandwagon, and a Heat fan, I just had a friend that asked if I was interested in writing with them.)

I had it set so you couldn't post external links until you had been a member for 7 day. I don't think it's necessary though. We know everyone on here. I changed it so you can now post links.

Mutangclan wrote:

Spurs are really good, really well coached, have a deep bench. But are really old.

Jazz are showing they're pretty good too, have the edge in the front court as a whole, are deep, are young and hungry already and believe in themselves.

I'm just not buying into the "Spurs are old" thing. Their older vets are still hugely productive in significant minutes. Plus, they have a stable of young guys every bit as bouncy as our young guys. The Jazz do have an edge in the front court but the Spurs have the edge in experience, coaching and outside shooting.