The Most Depressing Thing I've Read This Year...

I clicked on this article from Hollinger not expecting to see anything to make me depressed for the Jazz, just happy that I'm not a fan of the teams he was getting set to eviscerate.

But while the Jazz weren't on his dubious list of "teams facing desperation mode", it did include this little piece of information....

John Hollinger wrote:

This year, we have a lot of Brooklyns. Not in terms of willingness to shoot money out the firehose, perhaps -- the Knicks, Nets and Lakers remain unique in that respect, at least until Isiah Thomas and/or Otis Smith gets another GM gig -- but in terms of their itchy trigger fingers. They find themselves in positions where they're going to be a lot more willing to take risks and/or make splashy acquisitions than usual.

There's a secondary cause too, which is that the free-agency market is only going to exacerbate a team's willingness to take chances. Don't look now, but I count a whopping 13 teams that are looking at max salary cap space or close to it next summer -- Dallas, Milwaukee, Orlando, Charlotte, Houston, Portland, Sacramento, Atlanta, Utah, Cleveland, Detroit, New Orleans and Phoenix. (A 14th team, Toronto, was on this list 24 hours ago before firing a $40-million bullet into its own plantar fascia).

On the demand side, we're overloaded. On the supply side? Not so much. It's difficult to find a single player who is both willing to relocate and worthy of a max contract.

This analysis obviously, presumes Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, Manu Ginobili and Chris Paul stay put, but even if one of them walks, it's just adding another chair to the mix -- Philadelphia, San Antonio and the Clippers would have max cap space if Bynum, Ginobili or CP walked.

So enjoy your max contract, Al Jefferson; you will apparently be the winner of the 2013 Good Money Going After Bad Sweepstakes. Take a bow, Paul Millsap and David West -- that beeping sound you hear is the truck backing up.

In fact, we're forced by all this money chasing so little talent to consider more ridiculous scenarios. Would somebody give Tyreke Evans a max offer sheet? What about Nikola Pekovic? And which sucker will be giving Monta Ellis $50 million?

We're left with a situation where there is probably going to be only one player (Atlanta's Josh Smith) who is both willing to consider relocating and genuinely deserving of a max contract (and even this latter point is arguable). The 13 other teams that miss out on Smith, who is still most likely to stay home in Atlanta, will then be the ones talking themselves into $45 million offer sheets for somebody like Jeff Teague.

That, in turn, informs Wednesday's news about lavish contract extensions for Ty Lawson and Steph Curry. Those guys got paid precisely because their teams looked ahead at the market and realized they were going to be paying the max to keep these guys a year from now; better to lock in a discount ahead of time. A similar calculus informed decisions by Chicago and Philadelphia to extend Taj Gibson and Jrue Holiday, respectively.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/PERDiem-121101/teams-facing-desperation-mode

This article made me sick to my stomach. I can still hope that the Jazz will keep Millsap...can't I?

And to make it worse, if the Jazz do lose their own player(s), there's nobody worth throwing the $$ the team has at. So unless they make a trade with a team that is looking to unload salary, there's little chance that all that cap space is going to get the team anywhere according to this article.

I'm confused by your concern! The Jazz are stacked with their own young talent and have never been want to throw massive money at free agency for no reason. Last time they threw around the cash we got Boozer and Okur and went to the Western Conference! The front office has always shown themselves to be shrewd and adept at managing these type of mine fields. If there is someone available they want, they will go after him. If not? Spend it on our young guys and keep the money free for when there is someone better available!

An as an aside, if we have to choose Al or Paul for $15mil a season, Al in a heartbeat! I think the world of Paul, but having Al, Favors, Kanter is a better combo than Favors, Millsap, Kanter. However, Millsap for $10mil, Al for $15mil, Millsap.

I just hope we keep Marvin if he can keep playing like he did in the preseason and yesterday! Marvin really compliments Hayward's and Burks games!

Tarakaan wrote:

I'm confused by your concern! The Jazz are stacked with their own young talent and have never been want to throw massive money at free agency for no reason. Last time they threw around the cash we got Boozer and Okur and went to the Western Conference! The front office has always shown themselves to be shrewd and adept at managing these type of mine fields. If there is someone available they want, they will go after him. If not? Spend it on our young guys and keep the money free for when there is someone better available!

An as an aside, if we have to choose Al or Paul for $15mil a season, Al in a heartbeat! I think the world of Paul, but having Al, Favors, Kanter is a better combo than Favors, Millsap, Kanter. However, Millsap for $10mil, Al for $15mil, Millsap.

I just hope we keep Marvin if he can keep playing like he did in the preseason and yesterday! Marvin really compliments Hayward's and Burks games!

If the number is 15 Mil then the answer is neither, and that is what I found so depressing. If the Jazz want to pay $15 Mil a year for Jefferson they would have extended his current contract (he absolutely would have taken it too), I think the almost universal feeling is that Big Al is going to be playing somewhere else next year, the only question is whether that happens during the season or after (I'm on record with a vote for after). But Millsap, my favorite Jazz player for the last several years Paul Millsap, is (or was) considered possibly affordable for the Jazz. $10 Million a year is still within the Jazz long term budget, he's worth every penny of that, and had he been a free agent this year that is probably about what the Jazz could have kept him for. Unfortunately the harsh reality comes in two waves, the first making it impossible to extend him under the new CBA, and the second from Hollinger that it will be a sellers market next summer, driving up prices to the point where the Jazz are likely to lose one of my top 5 favorite Jazz men of all time.

Love Sap. Isn't worth more than 10 mill a yr though. I see, even though it's been one game, Jefferson and Saps numbers go down if the Jazz run more and especially if Mo and Marvin shoot at high percentages. Will this bring Paul and Al's value down? Maybe. If not and someone wants to pay Sap Max money - let him walk. He's a great complimentary player but won't bring a team a ring as their franchise player.
Still can't believe Harden and Lawson got such big contracts- desperation for mediocrity much? Harden is good enough for 10-12 mill but the output he had last night is farfetched to be expected- even every fourth game. He'll average a lot but he's NOT a Max player.
Hope Jefferson gets his fifth yr here at around 13 mill a yr- which could land him....especially if Millsap gets offered money over 10 a yr.
Let other teams overpay. I realize you gotta keep some players but if we're just going to be a playoff team and not contend for it all... let the money-burden walk.

aliveandkickin wrote:

Love Sap. Isn't worth more than 10 mill a yr though. I see, even though it's been one game, Jefferson and Saps numbers go down if the Jazz run more and especially if Mo and Marvin shoot at high percentages. Will this bring Paul and Al's value down? Maybe. If not and someone wants to pay Sap Max money - let him walk. He's a great complimentary player but won't bring a team a ring as their franchise player.
Still can't believe Harden and Lawson got such big contracts- desperation for mediocrity much? Harden is good enough for 10-12 mill but the output he had last night is farfetched to be expected- even every fourth game. He'll average a lot but he's NOT a Max player.
Hope Jefferson gets his fifth yr here at around 13 mill a yr- which could land him....especially if Millsap gets offered money over 10 a yr.
Let other teams overpay. I realize you gotta keep some players but if we're just going to be a playoff team and not contend for it all... let the money-burden walk.

Worth is all about the market, if that is what those players are going for, and players keep going for that, then that is probably what they are worth.

But that is exactly why it depressed me, I love Sap, but the Jazz aren't paying 12-13 Mil a year to keep him, and they won't pay that to Jefferson either. The Jazz are looking at keeping the young guys long term, and they aren't going to commit big money to a player unless that player fills a need AND works WITH the future core. I've long argued that is why Millsap makes so much more sense for the Jazz than Jefferson, he's cheaper, he's better (my opinion), and he's substantially more versatile. But now it looks like "None of the Above" may end up being the answer, and I hate that.

Maybe with the 5th year than can still get him for under 10 Mil, hope so.

TheMagnus wrote:

aliveandkickin wrote:

Love Sap. Isn't worth more than 10 mill a yr though. I see, even though it's been one game, Jefferson and Saps numbers go down if the Jazz run more and especially if Mo and Marvin shoot at high percentages. Will this bring Paul and Al's value down? Maybe. If not and someone wants to pay Sap Max money - let him walk. He's a great complimentary player but won't bring a team a ring as their franchise player.
Still can't believe Harden and Lawson got such big contracts- desperation for mediocrity much? Harden is good enough for 10-12 mill but the output he had last night is farfetched to be expected- even every fourth game. He'll average a lot but he's NOT a Max player.
Hope Jefferson gets his fifth yr here at around 13 mill a yr- which could land him....especially if Millsap gets offered money over 10 a yr.
Let other teams overpay. I realize you gotta keep some players but if we're just going to be a playoff team and not contend for it all... let the money-burden walk.

Worth is all about the market, if that is what those players are going for, and players keep going for that, then that is probably what they are worth.

But that is exactly why it depressed me, I love Sap, but the Jazz aren't paying 12-13 Mil a year to keep him, and they won't pay that to Jefferson either. The Jazz are looking at keeping the young guys long term, and they aren't going to commit big money to a player unless that player fills a need AND works WITH the future core. I've long argued that is why Millsap makes so much more sense for the Jazz than Jefferson, he's cheaper, he's better (my opinion), and he's substantially more versatile. But now it looks like "None of the Above" may end up being the answer, and I hate that.

Maybe with the 5th year than can still get him for under 10 Mil, hope so.

The whole market and luxury tax thing in the NBA is like global warming. You can pretend it isn't coming and act accordingly or you get ready for a whole new scenario. So, who is looking really sexy and long-term competitive under the new global warming cap? The Jazz, for one. Boatloads of promising young talent to float on the rising tides with modest salaries. The next wave of "favorite Jazz players", studs. Didn't read the whole article but let us not forget that the chronic over-spending teams, (and you know who you are), are going to be leveling the playing field with their over-spending and ring chasing. As SA, Pacers, Memphis, OKC have shown, a new model for success is afloat for long-term competive franchises. Identify young talent in the draft and talent not in the draft. Great coaching to develop the talent. Try, if you can, to lock in your homegrown all-stars and nearly all-stars below max contracts. We all knew both Sap and Al weren't going to be on the roster next year, not with Kanter and Favors rising up. Question is, which will it be? I also vote Al as long as he keeps scoring and improving like he has been as a Jazz man. Paul is our boy, but he is replaceable with a lower tier PF, plus he will get his in the free market, and good for him.

MTJazz wrote:

The whole market and luxury tax thing in the NBA is like global warming. You can pretend it isn't coming and act accordingly or you get ready for a whole new scenario. So, who is looking really sexy and long-term competitive under the new global warming cap? The Jazz, for one. Boatloads of promising young talent to float on the rising tides with modest salaries. The next wave of "favorite Jazz players", studs. Didn't read the whole article but let us not forget that the chronic over-spending teams, (and you know who you are), are going to be leveling the playing field with their over-spending and ring chasing. As SA, Pacers, Memphis, OKC have shown, a new model for success is afloat for long-term competive franchises. Identify young talent in the draft and talent not in the draft. Great coaching to develop the talent. Try, if you can, to lock in your homegrown all-stars and nearly all-stars below max contracts. We all knew both Sap and Al weren't going to be on the roster next year, not with Kanter and Favors rising up. Question is, which will it be? I also vote Al as long as he keeps scoring and improving like he has been as a Jazz man. Paul is our boy, but he is replaceable with a lower tier PF, plus he will get his in the free market, and good for him.

See, that's something I've just never understood, what is it about Jefferson that makes him so valuable? He can't carry a decent team, he's a bad defender, he's a marginally efficient scorer, but hey, he can get his shot off anytime he wants, and make it 50% of the time, so that's good...right?

Am I the only person that remembers how far having a Center or PF that can't play team D will take you in the NBA? (see EVERY SINGLE PLAYOFFS FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS)

Am I the only person that sees that Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors have almost exactly the same measurements, occupy exactly the same space and are one year away from doing everything Jefferson does, and more?

Am I the only person that is watching games this year and thinking to himself that Jefferson is the 4th best big man on the team so far this season?

Am I the only one thinking, "why would I pay top dollar for a guy just because he has a "C" on his player card when a) I have two great young players who also have a "C" on their player card, b) I can get a player who is just as effective as he is offensively and is also a better defender, but doesn't have a "C" on his player card, for $3-5 mil less a year, and c) when I know I will need that 3-5 Million if I intend to keep the before mentioned young players with a "C" on their player card"?

Ok....I guess maybe I'm the only one.

TheMagnus wrote:

MTJazz wrote:

The whole market and luxury tax thing in the NBA is like global warming. You can pretend it isn't coming and act accordingly or you get ready for a whole new scenario. So, who is looking really sexy and long-term competitive under the new global warming cap? The Jazz, for one. Boatloads of promising young talent to float on the rising tides with modest salaries. The next wave of "favorite Jazz players", studs. Didn't read the whole article but let us not forget that the chronic over-spending teams, (and you know who you are), are going to be leveling the playing field with their over-spending and ring chasing. As SA, Pacers, Memphis, OKC have shown, a new model for success is afloat for long-term competive franchises. Identify young talent in the draft and talent not in the draft. Great coaching to develop the talent. Try, if you can, to lock in your homegrown all-stars and nearly all-stars below max contracts. We all knew both Sap and Al weren't going to be on the roster next year, not with Kanter and Favors rising up. Question is, which will it be? I also vote Al as long as he keeps scoring and improving like he has been as a Jazz man. Paul is our boy, but he is replaceable with a lower tier PF, plus he will get his in the free market, and good for him.

See, that's something I've just never understood, what is it about Jefferson that makes him so valuable? He can't carry a decent team, he's a bad defender, he's a marginally efficient scorer, but hey, he can get his shot off anytime he wants, and make it 50% of the time, so that's good...right?

Am I the only person that remembers how far having a Center or PF that can't play team D will take you in the NBA? (see EVERY SINGLE PLAYOFFS FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS)

Am I the only person that sees that Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors have almost exactly the same measurements, occupy exactly the same space and are one year away from doing everything Jefferson does, and more?

Am I the only person that is watching games this year and thinking to himself that Jefferson is the 4th best big man on the team so far this season?

Am I the only one thinking, "why would I pay top dollar for a guy just because he has a "C" on his player card when a) I have two great young players who also have a "C" on their player card, b) I can get a player who is just as effective as he is offensively and is also a better defender, but doesn't have a "C" on his player card, for $3-5 mil less a year, and c) when I know I will need that 3-5 Million if I intend to keep the before mentioned young players with a "C" on their player card"?

Ok....I guess maybe I'm the only one.

Nope you aren't the only one. For Al to stay on the Jazz he would have to do it as a back up and you don't pay back up guys 15m a year.

Also the one thing this guy isn't taking into account is this, the new cap kicks in after this season and there are going to be a lot of teams that won't or can't pay the kind of money that their current roster would require next season. So for me that say's it's going to be a buyers market next off season or even up to the trade deadline this year. Say a team has a player that is going to require a large contract next year sees that they are out of the playoff picture before the trade deadline. Would they be willing to move him to prevent him walking in the off season, because they can't spend what he wants without going into the tax? more than likely yes.

Ever since the AK contract debacle the Jazz FO has been very careful throwing around huge contracts and I don't expect that to change just because they have a lot of money to spend.

You have to remember, we don't have a couple of idiots running the show. We have two of the best in the business in Lindsay and KOC. I have all the faith in the world that they handle this the best way possible.

If there is nobody out there worth throwing big money at. I would assume the Jazz will sign a bunch of guys we already have to one year contracts and try again in the next off season. That would suck balls to have to wait another year to round out this team, but it beats the hell out of over paying for mediocre talent.

So yeah that article could be depressing to teams looking to blow their load this off season, but that just isn't and never has been the Utah Jazz

TheMagnus wrote:

MTJazz wrote:

The whole market and luxury tax thing in the NBA is like global warming. You can pretend it isn't coming and act accordingly or you get ready for a whole new scenario. So, who is looking really sexy and long-term competitive under the new global warming cap? The Jazz, for one. Boatloads of promising young talent to float on the rising tides with modest salaries. The next wave of "favorite Jazz players", studs. Didn't read the whole article but let us not forget that the chronic over-spending teams, (and you know who you are), are going to be leveling the playing field with their over-spending and ring chasing. As SA, Pacers, Memphis, OKC have shown, a new model for success is afloat for long-term competive franchises. Identify young talent in the draft and talent not in the draft. Great coaching to develop the talent. Try, if you can, to lock in your homegrown all-stars and nearly all-stars below max contracts. We all knew both Sap and Al weren't going to be on the roster next year, not with Kanter and Favors rising up. Question is, which will it be? I also vote Al as long as he keeps scoring and improving like he has been as a Jazz man. Paul is our boy, but he is replaceable with a lower tier PF, plus he will get his in the free market, and good for him.

See, that's something I've just never understood, what is it about Jefferson that makes him so valuable? He can't carry a decent team, he's a bad defender, he's a marginally efficient scorer, but hey, he can get his shot off anytime he wants, and make it 50% of the time, so that's good...right?

Am I the only person that remembers how far having a Center or PF that can't play team D will take you in the NBA? (see EVERY SINGLE PLAYOFFS FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS)

Am I the only person that sees that Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors have almost exactly the same measurements, occupy exactly the same space and are one year away from doing everything Jefferson does, and more?

Am I the only person that is watching games this year and thinking to himself that Jefferson is the 4th best big man on the team so far this season?

Am I the only one thinking, "why would I pay top dollar for a guy just because he has a "C" on his player card when a) I have two great young players who also have a "C" on their player card, b) I can get a player who is just as effective as he is offensively and is also a better defender, but doesn't have a "C" on his player card, for $3-5 mil less a year, and c) when I know I will need that 3-5 Million if I intend to keep the before mentioned young players with a "C" on their player card"?

Ok....I guess maybe I'm the only one.

Mags, I guess my point is if BOTH Big Al and Sap are on the market Sap will command as much money as Al. IMO, Sap, love the guy to death, isn't quite at Al's level. With Kanter/Favors our interior D will be fine, so having Al's scoring gives him a slight nudge in my book. Lets see how the season and play works out...Sap could outplay Al this season...and we should keep one of them at least.

Great points. Yes, lovin how most teams will have to choose who'll be their Max guys and there can only be three (see the Thunder) . The Thunder made out like bandits with getting picks for Harden cause Martin will likely walk for more dough.
lovin how the Lakers are looking slow and as Locke points out- the game-plan will be to run them having a shotty bench that can't hang. Kobe is slowing and father time is a knocking with Nash as well....even in a playoff series their bigs can't overcome relentless pressure after a shot but we need guys like Burks and Marvin and Hayward to push it after a rebound.
When I see a player look to start a break off a long board I see confidence and more wins. Let's see what happens..
Respectively I see Al as less expendable for his size and scoring than Sap because Favors can play both big positions and his defense will only get better.. A big that can alter and block shots baby.

MTJazz wrote:

Mags, I guess my point is if BOTH Big Al and Sap are on the market Sap will command as much money as Al. IMO, Sap, love the guy to death, isn't quite at Al's level. With Kanter/Favors our interior D will be fine, so having Al's scoring gives him a slight nudge in my book. Lets see how the season and play works out...Sap could outplay Al this season...and we should keep one of them at least.

Well that is exactly what I don't get. His scoring is not that great, in fact last year every single one of the Jazz bigs (along with Harris and Hayward) was more efficient at scoring points than Al was. People talk about his clutch scoring, but ever since Jefferson has been with the Jazz Millsap has been just as effective at scoring points in the clutch as he has. The only real measurable thing that Al Jefferson does better than Millsap offensively is not turning the ball over, that's it, in every other category Millsap is better than Jefferson.

And the truth of the NBA is that the "C" on the player card is worth $2-5 million a year for a quality player, it just is, the evidence proving that is indesputable. That is why in spite of the fact that Millsap and Jefferson both had great years and put up similar numbers Jefferson will get better and bigger offers than Millsap. That is why Hollinger specifically singled out Jefferson as a likely recipeint of a MAX contract while just implying that David West and Paul Millsap would be overpayed.

So for me even in the hypothetical situation were they can both be had for the same amount, I think it is at best a toss up to be decided depending on the needs of the team. But when you introduce the fact that Millsap will undoubtedly be cheaper, to me it is a no brainer, I'll take Millsap every time.